NFL Mock Draft 2019: 1st-Round Projections and Safest Prospects Available

The NFL draft is, in reality, an educated guessing game.

But some prospects have such a high floor that interested teams can take some of the guesswork out of the equation.

Last year, Saquon Barkley left Penn State looking like a plug-and-play star. He subsequently sprinted to the Offensive Rookie of the Year award with 2,028 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns.

Not every prospect offers a Barkley-type blend of low risk and high reward, but after laying out our first-round mock, we'll identify the three safest prospects in the 2019 class.

2019 NFL Mock Draft

1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State

3. New York Jets: Josh Allen, DE/OLB, Kentucky

4. Oakland Raiders: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan

6. New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

8. Detroit Lions: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

9. Buffalo Bills: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

10. Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

11. Cincinnati Bengals: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

12. Green Bay Packers: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

13. Miami Dolphins: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State

14. Atlanta Falcons: Cody Ford, G/T, Oklahoma

15. Washington Redskins: Devin White, LB, LSU

16. Carolina Panthers: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson

17. New York Giants (via Cleveland Browns): Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State

18. Minnesota Vikings: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama

19. Tennessee Titans: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Brian Burns, DE, Florida State

21. Seattle Seahawks: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida

22. Baltimore Ravens: Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State

23. Houston Texans: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

24. Oakland Raiders (via Chicago Bears): Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

26. Indianapolis Colts: N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State

27. Oakland Raiders (via Dallas Cowboys): Devin Bush, LB, Michigan

28. Los Angeles Chargers: Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

30. Green Bay Packers (via New Orleans Saints): Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware

31. Los Angeles Rams: Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson

32. New England Patriots: Irv Smith, TE, Alabama

Safest Prospects Available

Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State

Maybe it says something about this draft that our safest prospect is someone who lost all but three games to injury this past season. Really, though, this says more about Bosa, who has virtually zero flaws when he's inside the lines.

"Bosa is a complete player with no glaring weaknesses," NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah wrote. "... He's one of the best pure pass-rushers I've evaluated. I've seen guys with more size or explosiveness, but his innate feel and polished technique put him in the elite class."

It probably doesn't hurt that Bosa's older brother—and best NFL comparison—Joey hit the ground running after becoming the third overall pick in 2016. Through three seasons, the elder Bosa has recorded 35 tackles for loss and 28.5 sacks in 35 games.

Nick Bosa looks like the next in line. He could thrive in almost any scheme and from anywhere along the line of scrimmage. There might be rushers with better burst, but Bosa's fundamentals are polished beyond his years. Health permitting, even his basement projections might include a Pro Bowl appearance or two.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

No one handles the tight end position better than the Hawkeyes. If their track record hadn't hammered that point yet—the school has produced Dallas Clark and George Kittle, among others—then this draft should do it, as Hockenson and Noah Fant have a chance to become the first tight end teammates taken in the same first round.

Fant is the more flashy of the two with the athleticism and hands to consistently split out wide. Hockenson is the more traditional—and more complete—prospect.

"Hockenson is one of the best blocking tight ends I've ever evaluated, and he is dependable in the passing game," Jeremiah wrote. "He's a Day 1 impact player at the next level."

It's hard to see Hockenson missing. He'll be an asset in the running game from the start, and he's no slouch through the air either (49 receptions for 760 yards and six scores last season).

The intrigue is in how high he can climb. With comparisons being made to Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski, Hockenson's star potential is clear.

Devin White, LB, LSU

Putting the "safe" label on White doesn't correlate to a lack of upside. If you believe those who've been around him, like Tigers coach Ed Orgeron, White might have the highest ceiling of any player in this class.

"I've been a part of Ray Lewis. I've been a part of Patrick Willis, and he's right there," Orgeron told reporters in December. "He's one of the best I've ever been a part of as far as middle linebackers go. He's very talented, and I think he's still getting better. He'll have a tremendous pro career."

White has all the athletic gifts scouts could ever want, but he's not just a workout phenom. He's overloaded with playmaking skills. He can chase down ball-carriers, blitz the passer and drop back in coverage. He's a sideline-to-sideline defender who can make his presence felt in the backfield or 20 yards downfield.

After breaking out in 2017 with 133 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, White upped the ante in 2018 and captured the Dick Butkus Award in the process. He finished with 123 tackles, including 12 for loss and three sacks, along with career highs of six pass breakups, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries.