5 MLB Teams That Will Be Better Than Vegas Thinks in 2019

Oddsmakers are always playing a guessing game with over/under MLB win totals, and we're here to identify five that seem too low.

That includes the defending World Series champs, along with four less impressive squads that could still mildly surprise in 2019.

For reference, the top team (New York Yankees) is projected for 97 wins, while the worst team (Baltimore Orioles) sits at 59.

Boston Red Sox

Associated Press

Mookie Betts makes the Red Sox a strong bet to exceed their expected win total.

Vegas: 96.5

Prediction: 100

The Boston Red Sox have won the AL East three years in a row and are the defending champs, but Vegas still underrates them after they won 108 games last season.

The roster remains impressive, and two major contributors could improve in 2019.

Jackie Bradley Jr., 28, earned the ALCS MVP against the Houston Astros thanks to his power and fielding. After working with hitting coach Craig Wallenbrock since the 2018 All-Star break, he has retooled his swing.

"This is the first time I heard any of this stuff," Bradley said, per Rob Bradford of WEEI-AM. "What I've been taught my whole life is completely wrong. It's scary to say that, but it's wrong. I feel fortunate enough to make it this far doing it wrong."

While his hitting approach may have needed a significant adjustment, his fielding did not.

"He's as good as it gets," Chris Sale said, per Chad Finn of the Boston Globe. "Us as pitchers we say it all the time, it feels like we're playing with four outfielders."

Fellow outfielder Andrew Benintendi is hitting his prime at age 24. He ranked in the top 20 in the AL in runs, batting average, OBP, OPS, doubles, triples, RBI and walks last season and should only improve.

AL MVP Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez don't have to get better. Betts put up 10.9 WAR, the highest for any position player since Barry Bonds reached 11.8 in 2002. Martinez had a .330/.402/.629 slash line with 43 homers and 130 RBI. He has hammered 148 home runs the last four years.

The starting pitching is top-notch with Sale (2.11 ERA, 13.5 K/9), David Price (3.58 ERA, 176 innings pitched), Rick Porcello (191.1 innings pitched, 33 starts), Eduardo Rodriguez (10.1 K/9, 3.82 ERA) and Nathan Eovaldi, a two-time Tommy John patient who received a $67.5 million deal in the offseason.

The loss of Craig Kimbrel at the back end of the bullpen will hurt, but Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier both throw in the upper 90s.

Texas Rangers

Vegas: 70.5

Prediction: 76

The Texas Rangers were an afterthought in 2018, winning just 67 games and finishing last in the AL West. But this season, they will have Elvis Andrus healthy after he had a breakout 2017 and then struggled in 2018.

A thumb injury likewise hurt Nomar Mazara's productivity in the second half of last season. As he enters his fourth season, he should exceed the 20 home runs and 77 RBI he had last year. Shin-Soo Choo bashed 21 home runs and slashed .264/.377/.434 last year and was the team's best outfielder with a 2.8 WAR, and he's expected to hold that line, while Rougned Odor had a slash line of .253/.326/.424 and 2.7 WAR.

The Rangers need 24-year-old first baseman Ronald Guzman to improve after he struck out 28.3 percent of the time last year, though. He hit 16 home runs, and Texas needs him to reach the seats 25 times or more in 2019.

"When I watch these guys, like Guzman, Odor, all these guys, when they get behind in the count? So what? That's what I'm probably most excited about," manager Chris Woodward said, per Stefan Stevenson of the Star-Telegram. "I felt like our biggest room for improvement was our two-strike approach and our dedication to that two-strike approach. Not striking out, but how do we commit ourselves with two strikes? What do we do with two strikes? And I'm witnessing it, which is awesome."

Speaking of strikeouts, Joey Gallo has been the king with 207 last year and 196 the year before. However, he had 40 home runs last year and 41 in 2017. The Rangers should get at least as many in 2019.

Of course, the Rangers said goodbye to Adrian Beltre, who retired at the end of the season, and Jurickson Profar was traded. While Profar started to fulfill his potential as a hitter with 20 home runs in 2018, he also had 25 errors. His absence should tighten a Texas defense that led the AL with 120 errors.

The pitching staff's success will depend on Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. And Minor did have a 2.97 ERA in the second half of last season. Lynn will also eat innings, as he pitched 343 frames the last two years and became more effective after he moved to the third-base side of the mound.

The Rangers have one of the best young bullpen arms in Jose Leclerc, who held batters to a .123 average while striking out 85 in 57.2 innings. He converted 12 of 12 save opportunities a year ago.

Andrus, Mazara, Choo and Guzman all get a little better, and Gallo blasts another 40 into the stands.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Vegas: 77.5

Prediction: 85

The NL Central looks like it could be the toughest division in baseball, and the Pittsburgh Pirates could surprise some in 2019. Start with the rotation of Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove and Jordan Lyles.

Taillon and Archer have a chance to be dominant. Taillon had 32 starts last year and allowed three earned runs or fewer in 22 consecutive outings—Jacob deGrom was the only other player to have such a streak last year. Archer still throws in the mid-90s, has a knee-buckling slider and can become an All-Star again this season.

Center fielder Starling Marte slashed .277/.327/.460 last year with 20 home runs, 81 runs, 72 RBI and 33 stolen bases. He joined Bonds and Andy Van Slyke as the only Pirates to have a 20-home run, 30-steal season. Corey Dickerson is a nice asset in left field with a .300/.330/.474 slash line that included 35 doubles, seven triples and 13 home runs.

A further look at the Pittsburgh outfield shows that this group had 215 extra-base hits, and that topped the NL last year.

Francisco Cervelli is an underrated asset behind the plate with a slash line of .259/.378/.431 while throwing out 39 percent of those attempting to steal.

Combine two sharp starters at the top of the rotation with a slugging outfield and a catcher who can throw out runners and get clutch hits, and this looks like a team on the rise.

Chicago White Sox

Vegas: 76

Prediction: 78

The Chicago White Sox may be partially back after trading Chris Sale to the Red Sox following the 2016 season. They were all-in on Manny Machado and missed, but manager Rick Renteria has Eloy Jimenez, MLB's No. 3 overall prospect, on his roster.

Jimenez was expected to start the season in the minor leagues to keep his service clock from starting, but he signed a six-year, $43 million contract this month. Putting him in the same lineup with first baseman Jose Abreu will be dangerous.

Abreu did not have his typical numbers last season, but he did hit .294/.364/.559 in the second half. He also demonstrated a more focused approach this spring with four home runs and 18 RBI to go with his .323 average.

Tim Anderson showed improvement last year with career highs in home runs (20) and stolen bases (26). Now he needs to do something about his .281 on-base percentage. As a positive, his defensive play improved, as he cut down on his errors from 28 to 20, and he had 29 more assists than he did in 2017.

The starting pitching could surprise with Reynaldo Lopez and Carlos Rodon at the top. Lopez throws in the upper 90s, and opponents hit .234 off him last year. Rodon needs to forget about his last six starts in 2018, when he went 0-5 with a 9.22 ERA.

San Francisco Giants

Vegas: 74.5

Prediction: 80

The San Francisco Giants are a long way from the team that won World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014. They have problems, and the biggest is an unproven outfield that includes speedy Steven Duggar in center and Gerardo Parra in right.

The left fielder could be Michael Reed, whom the Giants acquired from the Minnesota Twins last week. Reed has impressed with his defense, per Mike Lefkow of MLB.com. Yangervis Solarte could also see time in left.

However, the infield is where the Giants should gain their advantage. Go around the horn with Brandon Belt at first, Joe Panik at second, Brandon Crawford at shortstop and Evan Longoria at third.

Belt has always had a picture-perfect swing, and the first baseman thrived in the spring (.370 batting average and 1.127 OPS). Panik was also sensational in the spring, hitting .426 with a .960 OPS after a groin injury limited him last year.

While Buster Posey remains the catcher, Joey Bart is the heir apparent. The 22-year-old may be somewhat worn down, and he had season-ending hip surgery in August.

Madison Bumgarner remains the No. 1 starter, and he had a 3.26 ERA in 129.2 innings in 2018. He has battled through injuries in each of the last two seasons, but if he can stay healthy, he can throttle the opposition. The Giants are hoping for more than 44.2 innings and a 6.25 ERA from Jeff Samardzija. He certainly looked a lot better than that in spring training, as he made six starts and had a 3.97 ERA.

Lefty Will Smith will handle the closer's role, and manager Bruce Bochy believes he is ready for the job after recording a 2.55 ERA in 53 innings after coming back from Tommy John surgery.

"I'll be calling for Smitty," Bochy said, per Maria Guardado of MLB.com. "I talked to the bullpen, and we're going to work it similar to how we worked it at the back end of last season. Smitty will ascend to the closing role."

The rest of the bullpen features hard-throwing Reyes Moronta, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and Mark Melancon.

The Giants are going to give their outgoing boss a strong effort. The infield is solid, Bumgarner can still get the job done and the bullpen is deep.

Odds via Caesars.