Fantasy Baseball 2019 Cheatsheet: Pinpointing Top Sleepers and Busts

Baseball is back from its winter hibernation.

Two 2019 MLB games are already in the books, thanks to the short series between the Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's in Japan. That means tangible wins and losses are in the standings, and counting categories have collected their first tallies.

But since the other 28 teams don't open play until Thursday, there's still another huge draft weekend in the fantasy realm.

We're here to populate those unfilled rosters by identifying the top sleepers and busts for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.

2019 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Indians

Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals

Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Tyler Glasnow, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays

Nick Pivetta, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals

Domingo Santana, OF, Seattle Mariners

Matt Strahm, SP, San Diego Padres

Hunter Strickland, RP, Seattle Mariners

Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds

2019 Fantasy Baseball Busts

Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox

Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros

Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs

German Marquez, SP, Colorado Rockies

Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals

Sean Newcomb, SP, Atlanta Braves

Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

Blake Snell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals

Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals

Sleeper: Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals

Given our obsession with the newest, shiniest things in life—for fantasy purposes, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Eloy Jimenez fit that bill—we can sometimes forget to appreciate the less new, slightly less shiny ones.

Take Victor Robles, for instance. Everything about him equates to a giant upward arrow. The 21-year-old boasts tons of speed and a pinch of power, and now that he's playing in a Bryce Harper-less—and, for the time being, Michael A. Taylor-less—Nationals outfield, he should have a starting gig all to himself.

That should lead to an overstuffed stat sheet, making the Dominican an underrated fantasy asset, particularly in rotisserie leagues.

"Robles has been an on-base machine in the minors (career .392), he's terrific defensively and he has eventual all-star upside," Yahoo Sports' Andy Behrens wrote. "... Expect him to be an asset in steals and runs, while hitting for a respectable average."

Robles has as much breakout potential as any of the mega-prospects. Treat him as such on draft day.

Bust: Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

There isn't a more polarizing player in fantasy baseball than Adalberto Mondesi. That's probably because there isn't one with a wider range of outcomes, either.

Granted, if you nabbed him late last season, you basically added a godsend. Over the final 54 games, he hit .280/.317/.543 with 11 home runs, 26 RBI, 23 stolen bases and 28 runs.

But regression feels inevitable. His plate discipline is nonexistent. The 23-year-old never walks and swings at everything. He also had a neon-green light on the basepaths, and that category could tumble if he's not given nearly unprecedented freedom to run again.

"Mondesi's stolen base attempt rate—48 percent, using Baseball-Reference.com as the source for opportunities—was unsustainable and one of the century's highest by any player," ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft wrote.

The upside is real, and it's incredible. There's a chance Mondesi is a top-10 roto player. But the risk is just as enormous. It's fathomable he's sent back to the minors at some point if his free-swinging ways get the best of him.

Feel free to bet on his upside if you'd like, but make sure the downside is somewhat accounted for in his price.

Sleeper: Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds

It's easy to overlook Jesse Winker. After all, you wouldn't normally be tripping over yourself to add a player who's coming off a seven-homer, zero-steal season that was prematurely ended by shoulder surgery.

Look a little deeper, though, and you'll find plenty of reasons for this recommendation.

For starters, the 25-year-old lives on base. He had a .405 on-base percentage while walking more than he struck out (49 to 46). That's potentially huge if it convinces Reds manager David Bell that his bat belongs at or near the top of the lineup. This lineup is stacked—Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig—and remember, it plays half its games at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Plus, those aforementioned seven dingers are more interesting than they sound. After going homer-less through 44 games to start 2018, Winker blasted seven long balls over the next 45.

His bat may have 25-homer potential somewhere in it, and if he realizes that, he'd be a good-to-great fantasy contributor in four of the five hitting categories.