Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings 2019: Advice and Top Prospects, Stars to Draft
Anyone seeking fantasy baseball advice for a dynasty league must first conduct a thorough assessment for league and team context.
Few dynasty leagues are built the same, and managers will take different routes in hopes of reaching the same title destination. Some like to hoard young talent in hopes of patiently building a superteam down the road. Others will ride the undervalued veterans to immediate success.
These rankings—available in full here—take the author's more balanced approach into mind. It's possible to win now without an AARP roster while simultaneously targeting younger players with the present and future in mind.
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But don't just draft or make transactions straight from those rankings without first considering your circumstances. Nelson Cruz is going to help an immediate contender more than a rebuilding squad, who should be highly motivated to pursue an elite prospect such as Jo Adell or Royce Lewis.
The scoring, of course, also affects each player's value. This order is based on rotisserie leagues using standard five-by-five categories. Also, keep in mind that prospects may have less value in a shallower league with a smaller (or no) farm system.
With all of those disclaimers out of the way, let's pinpoint a pair of both MLB players and prospects to seek out in a trade or start-up draft.
Dynasty Rankings
1. Mike Trout, OF, LAA
2. Mookie Betts, OF, BOS
3. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, ATL
4. Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE
5. Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, CLE
6. Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL
7. Bryce Harper, OF, PHI
8. Manny Machado, 3B/SS, SD
9. Christian Yelich, OF, MIL
10. Alex Bregman, 3B/SS, HOU
11. Juan Soto, OF, WAS
12. Aaron Judge, OF, NYY
13. Trea Turner, SS, WAS
14. Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU
15. Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS
16. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, CHC
17. Carlos Correa, SS, HOU
18. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL
19. J.D. Martinez, OF, BOS
20. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, TOR
21. Trevor Story, SS, COL
22. Javier Baez, 2B/SS/3B, CHC
23. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, NYY
24. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, LAA (Note: Rank is contingent on hitter and pitcher eligibility)
25. Xander Bogaerts, SS, BOS
26. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD
27. Chris Sale, SP, BOS
28. Jacob deGrom, SP, NYM
29. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC
30. Blake Snell, SP, TB
31. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, STL
32. Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL
33. Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS
34. Gerrit Cole, SP, HOU
35. Rhys Hoskins, 1B/OF, PHI
36. Max Scherzer, SP, WAS
37. Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, NYY
38. Walker Buehler, SP, LAD
39. Eloy Jimenez, OF, CHW
40. Aaron Nola, SP, PHI
41. Luis Severino, SP, NYY
42. Corey Seager, SS, LAD
43. Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL
44. Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN
45. Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM
46. Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS
47. Trevor Bauer, SP, CLE
48. Corey Kluber, SP, CLE
49. Victor Robles, OF, WAS
50. J.T. Realmuto, C, PHI
Major League Targets
Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets
Overall Rank: No. 51
Possessing a No. 109 consensus ADP on FantasyPros, Michael Conforto makes a compelling mid-draft target in 2019 leagues. Perhaps dynasty gamers can also lock into a long-term cornerstone at a bargain.
New York Mets fans will fondly remember the glory days of early 2017, when analysts suggested Conforto was the Big Apple's top young outfielder over Aaron Judge. Of course, they didn't know the New York Yankees slugger would end the season with a rookie-record 52 homers.
They also couldn't envision Conforto suffering a dislocated shoulder that ended his breakout campaign while hindering his initial availability for 2018. (Unless they're a cynical Mets fan like this writer, in which case they would think it seemed like the normal thing to happen.)
Before Conforto's 2017 ended prematurely, he had already deposited 27 homers in 109 games with a 147 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which ranked 13th among batters with at least 400 plate appearances.
Although his wRC+ dropped to 120 last season, that still made him 20 percent better than the average major league hitter despite batting .216 before the All-Star break.
He looked far more like his old self down the stretch, mounting a .273/.356/.539 slash line with 17 long balls in 68 second-half games. Now that he's fully healthy, the 26-year-old should repair last year's .243 average by veering closer to 2017's 41.6 hard-hit percentage.
Even if he doesn't ascend into an upper-echelon star, Conforto will be a steady bet for 30-35 homers on a yearly basis.
Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Overall Rank: No. 100
Like Conforto, Luis Castillo could prove difficult to obtain if rostered by an informed owner.
Some disgruntled shareholders might only see last year's highly underwhelming 4.30 ERA. Others might still see a hard-thrower with elite stuff who rebounded from early setbacks.
One of last year's trendiest breakout picks, Castillo quickly crushed those hopes by allowing 25 runs (all earned) through his first six starts.
He was unusable for half the season before turning the corner in July:
- Through June: 17 GS, 82.2 IP, 5.85 ERA, 85 K, 33 BB
- July-September: 14 GS, 82.0 IP, 2.63 ERA, 80 K, 16 BB
While he may not maintain the summer's elite command, a 61.4 first-pitch strike rate suggests he can at least avoid the earlier portion's sky-high walk rate.
He should also have no trouble continuing to strike out more than a batter per inning; his 13.5 swinging-strike percentage placed eighth among all qualified pitchers in 2018.
Castillo remains a potential ace who should at least pitch closer to his 3.85 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2019. It might especially be worth buying low if he gets off to another sluggish start.
Prospect Targets
Nick Senzel, 3B, CIN
Overall Rank: No. 84
Nick Senzel was supposed to be in the bigs by now.
A polished prospect selected second overall in 2016's amateur draft, the third baseman seemed set for a quick minor league stay by hitting .321/.391/.514 between High-A and Double-A.
He may have at least received an opportunity to break camp last spring if not for Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett blossoming at third and second base, respectively.
Senzel nevertheless looked poised to give Cincinnati a tough decision when wrecking Triple-A pitching to a .310/.378/.509 slash line. Yet vertigo derailed his progress in May, and his season ended in June with a torn tendon in his right index finger.
Investors might be losing patience with the 23-year-old, who remains blocked by Suarez and Gennett. Now could be the perfect time to get Senzel at a discount.
MLB.com's sixth-ranked prospect, who tried to pick up shortstop to avoid the positional logjam last season, has taken reps in center field this spring. Per C. Trent Rosecrans of Baseball America, Senzel said he is having an easier time adjusting to this new spot.
"I picked up center better than I picked up short," he said. "It made me feel a little more comfortable—(because I can) just go be athletic and go out there and try to use my speed and first step and track down balls."
The Reds roster a bunch of outfielders (Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler), but none of them are well suited to handle center field. That could finally clear up a spot for Senzel, who could shift to second base when Gennett becomes a free agent next offseason.
Austin Hays, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Overall Rank: No. 242
This time last spring, few prospects garnered more buzz than Austin Hays. Fresh off hitting .329 with 32 homers in the minors, he looked poised to assume a starting role for the Baltimore Orioles.
He instead submitted a .266 on-base percentage in Double-A. The sudden decline removed him from fantasy radars, but that was before he clobbered three doubles, a triple and five home runs in 13 spring training games.
The 23-year-old looks fully recovered from an ankle injury that required season-ending surgery. Hays also, according to the Baltimore Sun's Jon Meoli, lost around 15-20 pounds by eliminating sugars and carbohydrates from his diet.
"It was a lot of weight just kind of blasting into the ankle," Hays said in regards to the change from last year. "I just feel light on my feet. I feel quick and fast."
Despite a stellar spring, the Orioles optioned Hays to Triple-A. Given their bleak roster, however, it's only a matter of time before he gets promoted.
Hays won't draw many walks or pile up steals, but he brandishes immense raw power with the ability to hit for a high average. He's the quintessential post-hype target to secure in dynasty formats before everyone purchases a ticket back on the bandwagon.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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