Projected Top 10 Contracts for the Entire 2019 NFL Free-Agency Period
The 2019 NFL offseason is about to hit its most frenzied period as the official start of free agency at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday nears.
The legal tampering window opened Monday, allowing agents and teams to line up deals prior to the official start time. Deals will surely be announced swiftly as soon as the bell rings and the market is open.
After scouring the free-agent list and comparing established veteran contracts, we've predicted the biggest deals that will be doled out in the coming days. The best organizations are able to augment their rosters in free agency, addressing needs and adding high-impact talent they wouldn't be able to land in the draft.
While some of these price tags may be alarming, these 10 players could be the difference between making the playoffs in 2019 and a staff being fired. Teams must avoid splurging just to make a headline and instead maximize their strengths in order to get the biggest bang for their buck.
Slides are ordered by the yearly average value of the contracts.
10. Rodger Saffold, LG
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Rodger Saffold is the player most likely to break the bank in free agency with minimal media buzz around him. He has been excellent for the Rams under Sean McVay, developing even further into a top-notch run-blocker and impressive pass-blocker. Even at 31, he’ll be a safe investment in terms of quality of play.
The left guard fits perfectly into zone-based rushing attacks, a staple of McVay's Rams offense. He's strong enough to hold his own when on an island in pass-blocking, and his hand technique has dramatically improved from early in his career. His instant-impact ability is unrivaled in this class.
A team willing to guarantee decent money beyond two years could seal the deal in negotiations for Saffold's services. Because the guard market craters after him, expect his bidding process to be fast.
Projected deal: Four years, $52 million
Best fits: Los Angeles Rams, Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings
9. Ja'Wuan James, OT, Denver Broncos
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The premier right tackle on the market this year is Ja'Wuan James. A smooth pass protector and excellent zone blocker, James would be a considerable upgrade for half of the league. He's more of a finesse right tackle than the traditional mauler, which almost surely affected which teams were interested.
James benefitted from a bleak market flush with money to spend. Donovan Smith's three-year, $41.25 million extension with the Buccaneers was excellent news for the clearly superior James. The Denver Broncos pounced on the opportunity to match James with Garett Bolles to form one of the most athletic duos in the NFL.
James has missed 18 games over the last four years, but his upside as an instant impact player to boost Denver's passing game is key. In 2018, starting quarterback Case Keenum was able to avoid pressure better than 2019's projected starter, Joe Flacco, making James key.
Reported deal: Four years, $52 million, per ESPN's Adam Schefter
8. Kwon Alexander, LB, San Francisco 49ers
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The first shocking deal of the legal tampering period came quickly as Kwon Alexander cashed in with the San Francisco 49ers less than two hours after it opened. The 24-year old is coming off a torn ACL yet still was given $27 million of his $54 million deal in guarantees. It's another bold risk by 49ers general manager John Lynch.
A fast and undersized linebacker, the 49ers must hope they'll get Alexander's best play in the coming seasons. Despite logging 380 tackles and 31 tackles for loss in his first 46 games, Alexander has missed 78 tackles since entering the league, per Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus. Paying this much for a player who has yet to prove himself as reliable as a run defender and tackler is borderline reckless.
Lynch and company are banking on Alexander's highlight plays. There's upside for him to somewhat fulfill the lofty price tag behind a talented defensive line, but they can't expect him to be as effective as Reuben Foster was.
Reported deal: Four years, $54 million, per ESPN's Adam Schefter
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7. Le'Veon Bell, RB
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The most fascinating storyline of free agency is going to be what happens with Le'Veon Bell. How he handled last season looks to be a mistake, but all it will take is for one team to match the guarantees that he desired from the Steelers. Still, teams are going to be more concerned that he turns 27 this offseason and that it will likely take three guaranteed years to land him.
Bell is an elite back whose production doesn't rely on scheme, making him as safe of a bet in 2019 than any back who has hit the unrestricted market in years. The production he brings as a runner and receiver is unparalleled in free agency, and 2019's draft class at the position is also weak. It's easy to talk yourself into paying Bell if the money is available.
Finding on-field fits for Bell isn't a challenge because of his impact ability and the lack of standout starters across the league. We'll find out soon if there's an appetite to pay him.
Projected deal: Four years, $58 million
Best fits: New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders, Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens
6. Landon Collins, S, Washington Redskins
5 of 10
Trying to characterize Landon Collins' game in the pass-happy NFL is difficult. He's a very good player in his role, but his five interceptions and four sacks in 2016 proved to be more of a fluke than representative of his true impact. The Washington Redskins boldly went all-in despite this.
Collins is only 25, but it must be concerning how recent safety deals have aged poorly. Eric Berry and Reshad Jones sit atop the league's biggest salaries at the position, but neither the Kansas City Chiefs nor the Miami Dolphins can be comfortable considering how both have dealt with injuries. Washington will regret this deal if Collins' passing production doesn't bounce back.
Washington found success using D.J. Swearinger in Cover 1 and Cover 3 looks, allowing him to roam near the box and cover tight ends. Collins is a better player than Swearinger for that same role and will do well for defensive coordinator Greg Manusky. The biggest question is whether Collins will be dynamic enough with turnovers to justify the deal.
Reported deal: Six years, $84 million, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport
5. Earl Thomas, S
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The last few years have shown inconsistency in how safeties are valued during free agency, but Earl Thomas will have a robust market. Constantly linked to the Dallas Cowboys this past season, expect heavy competition for Thomas' services, even as he hits 30 years old in May.
A rare single-high producer at safety, Thomas influences offenses single-handedly with his range, instincts and intellect. He'll be able to go where he pleases, but he may have to sacrifice money to play for a contender.
Notably, Thomas is good enough to influence which team wins the 2020 Super Bowl. His reported interest in a short-term deal is especially attractive considering his age, as it's easier to justify rolling the dice on a player coming off a broken leg with no long-term money.
Projected deal: Two years, $30 million, per NFL Network's Jane Slater (H/T to Bleacher Report's Marcus Mosher)
Best fits: Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers
4. Trent Brown, LT, Oakland Raiders
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It turns out that playing for the New England Patriots is not only the best way to win a Super Bowl, but also an almost guaranteed way to cash-in via free agency. One year after former Patriots left tackle Nate Solder reset the left tackle market with his four-year, $62 million deal, his replacement, Trent Brown, became the highest-paid lineman in NFL history when the Oakland Raiders agreed to a four-year, $66 million deal with him.
Brown benefitted from playing with Tom Brady and working with an elite offensive line coach in Dante Scarnecchia, but he's an upgrade for the Raiders. The massive tackle was ranked 44th overall by Pro Football Focus on throws over 2.6 seconds. Oakland starters Brandon Parker and Kolton Miller were ranked 72nd and 74th, respectively. While that doesn't seem to justify the price tag, Oakland needed help at the position, and Brown was the best available.
Acquired for a mid-round pick swap last year, this represents an incredible leap for Brown's value. The 6'8", 355-pounder provides stability in both the running and passing games, even if the price tag is immense. Oakland also superstar wide receiver Antonio Brown on Saturday.
Reported deal: Four years, $66 million, per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero
3. C.J. Mosley, LB, New York Jets
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The linebacker market is ready for a reset, as the top deals have been stagnant for some time. The perfect opportunity is this spring with C.J. Mosley becoming an unrestricted free agent. Mosley has totaled 597 tackles, 43 tackles for loss and 35 pass deflections in his five-year career, missing just three games in that time.
Though he's not as athletic as Anthony Barr or as fluid in coverage as Jordan Hicks, Mosley is a traditional middle linebacker who makes an impact beyond the stat sheet. His positioning in pass lanes and filling run gaps allows teammates to flourish in addition to his monstrous tackling numbers. Many teams could use that reliability.
His leadership, tackling efficiency and consistency separate him from most of his peers. He’ll also be just 27 years old this summer, making him a great candidate for long-term investment for either a 4-3 or 3-4 defensive front.
Reported deal: Five years, $85 million, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport
2. Trey Flowers, DE
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The Patriots' Super Bowl run brought a lot of attention to Trey Flowers, who is set to cash-in as a former 2015 fourth-round draft pick. He's been excellent over the last three years, compiling 21 sacks and five forced fumbles in 45 games, with an additional 5.5 sacks in eight playoff games. He brings value as a versatile rusher from both the end and tackle spots.
Flowers is only 25 years old and drew the interest of former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who is now head coach with the Detroit Lions. Though he doesn't have the elite production that typically goes with this type of payday, his projected role should help him produce more. He's averaged seven sacks per year in his three seasons of game action.
His ability to play the run at a high level also bodes well for how his deal will age. Playing next to Damon Harrison should help free up his opportunities to finish sacks, and the Lions could continue bolstering the unit in the draft. Flowers headlined an expensive day for Detroit, but he was a significant upgrade.
Reported deal: Five years, $90 million range, per ESPN's Adam Schefter (h/t ESPN's Field Yates)
1. Nick Foles, QB
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The Jacksonville Jaguars were able to quickly nab Nick Foles off the open market on Monday. They agreed to a four-year, $88 million deal that could reach $102 million, and ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that just over $50 million is guaranteed. The Jaguars made a bold statement by committing to Foles for at least two years with that type of money.
Instead of calling Foles' bluff and daring him to play the field, the Jaguars' front office decided that giving the reins to the former Super Bowl MVP was worth the heavy cost. The Miami Dolphins are the only other team with an opening at quarterback, and it seems unlikely they'd have been heavily involved in the bidding. It doesn't matter for the Jaguars as long as Foles lives up to the billing, though.
Vice president Tom Coughlin and general manager Dave Caldwell still have their work cut out for them as the offense needs help around Foles. They may need to turn to the draft, as the team won't have too much cap room to work with; it had just under $30 million before Foles' signing, per Over The Cap.
Reported deal: Four years, up to $102 million, per NFL Network's Mike Garafolo
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