2019 NFL Mock Draft: Predictions for Overrated Prospects Who Will Disappoint

The NFL draft is a guessing game.

So, despite all of the information gleaned from film study, statistical analysis, workouts and interviews, some clubs will inevitably guess wrong.

Don't forget: Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Charles Rogers and Courtney Brown were all once top-three picks. Projecting potential is an inexact science at best, and sometimes things can go terribly wrong.

We're not saying the following three players—listed after our latest first-round mock—are bound to flame out of football, but we are saying they'll fail to meet expectations.

2019 NFL Mock Draft

1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State

3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

4. Oakland Raiders: Josh Allen, DE/OLB, Kentucky

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan

6. New York Giants: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

8. Detroit Lions: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State

9. Buffalo Bills: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi

10. Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

11. Cincinnati Bengals: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

12. Green Bay Packers: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson

13. Miami Dolphins: Devin White, LB, LSU

14. Atlanta Falcons: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

15. Washington Redskins: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

16. Carolina Panthers: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State

17. Cleveland Browns: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

18. Minnesota Vikings: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama

19. Tennessee Titans: Brian Burns, DE, Florida State

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jachai Polite, OLB, Florida

21. Seattle Seahawks: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida

22. Baltimore Ravens: Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State

23. Houston Texans: Cody Ford, G, Oklahoma

24. Oakland Raiders (via Chicago Bears): Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware

26. Indianapolis Colts: N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State

27. Oakland Raiders (via Dallas Cowboys): Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

28. Los Angeles Chargers: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

30. Green Bay Packers (via New Orleans Saints): Irv Smith, TE, Alabama

31. Los Angeles Rams: Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson

32. New England Patriots: Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina

Overrated Prospects Who Will Disappoint

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi

The concern here isn't so much the player—it's the price.

His stock is soaring, and to his credit, he provided the helium. His size-speed combo is wild—6'3", 228 pounds with a 4.33-second 40-yard dash—and he's built more like a bodybuilder than a wide receiver.

But the back end of his combine testing has seemingly been left out of his evaluations. He ran a 7.38-second three-cone drill and clocked in at 4.5 seconds in the short-shuttle. As Brad Kelly of The Draft Network noted, those numbers put Metcalf in "the 2nd and 3rd percentile among wide receivers."

Plus, two of his three seasons at Ole Miss were ended by injury—first a broken foot, then a neck injury this past season.

The possible reward is obviously rich here, but it doesn't feel like any risk is being baked into his price. With a limited route tree, troubling change-of-direction testing and a worrisome health history, he's more of a project than fans, analysts and evaluators seem to think.

Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Save for perhaps a bigger set of mitts, Lock checks off all the physical boxes of an NFL quarterback. He's big (6'4", 228 lbs), and his arm is even bigger.

His four-year stay at Missouri was wildly productive. Dating back to 2015, when he made 12 appearances and eight starts as a true freshman, he totaled 12,193 passing yards and 99 touchdowns. Nationally, he ranked seventh in the former and fourth in the latter.

But he's less consistent than those numbers suggest. He completed a forgettable 56.9 percent of his passes and was intercepted 39 times.

"Inside of each game, Lock makes reads and throws that are worthy of an early pick. There will also be plays in the same game that highlight his random inaccuracy and issues defeating pocket presence," NFL.com's Lance Zierlein wrote. "He has as much pure talent as any quarterback in the 2018 draft, but he won't reach that lofty potential unless he improves his accuracy and learns to play with better in-game presence."

Recently, teams that spend a premium first-round pick on a passer want to see an early return on that investment. Lock simply isn't ready to provide that.

Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

The latest protege of quarterback guru David Cutcliffe, Jones has the traditional size of a pocket passer (6'5", 221 lbs) with modern mobility and athleticism.

If that sounds like an interesting combination, that's because it should. Over the past three seasons, Jones always threw for at least 2,500 yards and rushed for another 300-plus. He scored 52 times through the air and another 17 times on the ground.

But Jones only once finished with more than 20 passing touchdowns, and he topped out at 22. He also cancelled out more than half of those 52 with 29 interceptions. And he completed just 59.9 percent of his passes, which is not a great mark, even while accounting for the fact his receivers at Duke didn't help much in that category.

Still, if you're hitching your wagon to a passing prospect in the opening round, you'd like to see star-level potential. It's tough to see that in the cards for Jones, who might max out as a game manager.