Sleeper Rankings for the 2019 NCAA Tournament
At least one team seeded No. 6 or worse has made the Final Four in six consecutive NCAA tournaments.
Could a team like Maryland, Auburn or—dare we say it?—Wofford extend that streak to seven years this March?
For all the time we spend arguing about No. 1 seeds and teams right on the cut line, the squads in the Nos. 6-11 range are the ones that tend to destroy everyone's brackets.
In each and every tournament in the 2010s, multiple No. 1 or No. 2 seeds have failed to reach the Sweet 16, meaning that with one No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast exception (2013), it was always a team in the Nos. 7-10 range winning multiple games in their place. And in seven of those nine tournaments, at least two No. 6 or No. 11 seeds made it into the second weekend.
With just a couple of weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, who are those teams looming large as Sweet 16 (or Final Four) sleepers?
Using Saturday's Bracket Matrix update as a guide of who is seeded where, we've scoured the list of at-large candidates projected for a No. 6 seed or worse to let you know which could cause problems in the first two rounds.
Teams are listed in ascending order of how comfortable we would feel picking them to win multiple games regardless of their draw.
10. Indiana Hoosiers
1 of 10
Projected Seed: No. 12
Seeded Here Because: The Hoosiers have lost 10 of their last 11 games, but the one exception was a road win over Michigan State. Combined with previous quality wins over Louisville and Marquette and no Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4 losses, the 12-loss Hoosiers are hanging on for dear life.
Bread and Butter: They don't have any great three-point shooters, but five of their six primary players have sunk at least 20 triples this season. That spreads the defense just enough to open up what Indiana actually wants to do: score in the paint. In Juwan Morgan, Romeo Langford and Justin Smith, the Hoosiers have three guys who excel at finishing close to the rim.
Star Player: Though Langford is the one NBA scouts are showing up to watch every night, Morgan is the actual star here. Shoulder injuries limited him early in his career, but the senior has been a special talent the past two seasons. He shoots about 65 percent inside the arc, and he's one of the Hoosiers with at least 20 three-pointers. Add in the relentless rebounding, the shot-blocking presence and the year-over-year improvement as a passer, and let's just say Indiana would have more than 12 losses without Morgan.
March Madness Ceiling: There's no chance I'm trusting this team to make a Final Four run. Indiana goes ice-cold on offense far too often for that to happen. But there is more than enough talent on the roster for this to be the No. 11 or No. 12 seed that gets to the Sweet 16. Granted, the Hoosiers probably need to win at least two of their next four against Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State just to get into the tournament, so you might be looking at the favorites to win the NIT.
9. Buffalo Bulls
2 of 10
Projected Seed: No. 7
Seeded Here Because: Buffalo picked up three quality wins in nonconference play, beating West Virginia and Syracuse on the road as well as San Francisco in Northern Ireland. Prior to losses to Northern Illinois and Bowling Green in conference play, the Bulls were looking like a potential No. 4 seed.
Bread and Butter: Buffalo is a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type of team, but there is one thing it does exceptionally well: allow the third-lowest assist rate in the country (39.2 percent). In the marquee win over Syracuse, the Bulls forced 16 turnovers while only allowing seven assists. Opposing teams have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 0.6 against Buffalo, which boasts a 1.4 ratio of its own.
Star Player: Each member of the primary six-man rotation is crucial, but CJ Massinburg is the man who sets everything in motion. He had 43 points and 14 rebounds in the early win over West Virginia. He then had 25 points, eight rebounds and five assists against Syracuse. He has scored in double figures in every game but one—and that came three days after he carried the Bulls to victory against WVU, so we'll let it slide. In last year's tourney, he had 19 against Arizona and 18 against Kentucky. Lock him in for at least 20 in Buffalo's first game.
March Madness Ceiling: Defense is probably what will hold Buffalo back. The Bulls gave up 92 points in the loss to Bowling Green, and the Falcons don't even have a top-100 offense. Buffalo also gave up 103 in a December loss to Marquette. The Bulls have benefited from a schedule that (aside from Marquette) is devoid of elite offenses. Thus, their ceiling will depend on their draw and when they first run into a team that also likes to run and score in bunches. For instance, if Buffalo is the No. 7 seed matched up with North Carolina as the No. 2, that could get ugly.
8. Cincinnati Bearcats
3 of 10
Projected Seed: No. 7
Seeded Here Because: Cincinnati suffered an awful Quadrant 4 loss to East Carolina, and even its best wins—Ole Miss, at Temple, at Memphis, at Tulsa—haven't been anything special. But the Bearcats are 21-4 and have an impressive scoring margin, landing them in the top 30 on both KenPom.com and the NCAA Evaluation Tool. Thus, a No. 7 seed feels about right.
Bread and Butter: For the seventh consecutive year, Cincinnati is racking up wins thanks to offensive rebounding and shot-blocking. Per KenPom, the Bearcats are ranked in the top 10 in both categories this year and have been in the top 22 nationally for seven years now. Center Nysier Brooks, who is 6'11", is the leader in those departments, but every Bearcat taller than 6'2" contributes to that teamwide emphasis.
Star Player: Jarron Cumberland is what Cincinnati has been missing since Sean Kilpatrick graduated in 2014. Without a "just give me the ball and I'll get us a bucket" type of scorer, Cincinnati hadn't been much of a threat on offense for the past four years. Cumberland has been a breakout star, though, shooting 43.5 percent from downtown and averaging over 19 points per game.
March Madness Ceiling: If there's a Kemba Walker or Sindarius Thornwell situation brewing for this year—in which one player shoulders the offensive load while an above-average defense takes care of the rest—it's Cumberland and Cincinnati. The Bearcats could be vulnerable because their three-point defense is dreadful. But if they can avoid the likes of Auburn, Villanova, Virginia Tech and Wofford, they can win a few games.
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7. Murray State Racers
4 of 10
Projected Seed: Not Currently Projected to Dance
Seeded Here Because: The Racers are 0-4 against opponents in the KenPom top 120. They put up serious fights in road games against Auburn and Alabama, and Ja Morant hurt his ankle in the loss to Belmont, but they still haven't beaten anyone worth a darn. Belmont is projected as the Ohio Valley Conference's automatic bid thanks to that head-to-head game.
Bread and Butter: Murray State thrives on two-point buckets. Morant gets a lot of them, and he sets up even more. Shaq Buchanan, KJ Williams and Darnell Cowart each average more than three twos per game, with Williams converting at a near 71 percent clip. Cowart's midseason emergence has also turned Murray State into one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country, which leads to even more deuces.
Star Player: It's Morant, of course. Projected by most to be a top-five draft pick this summer, Morant is racking up 24 points, 10 assists and five rebounds per game. The 6'3" point guard also dunks almost as viciously as Zion Williamson does.
March Madness Ceiling: Their styles of play are wildly different, but Morant is this year's Stephen Curry candidate. If he goes out and drops a 40 burger in the opening game and proceeds to put up at least 30 a few more times, Murray State could make a bit of a run. That 2008 Davidson team was much better on the defensive end than Murray State is, though, so Morant might also score 40 in a losing effort in the first round.
6. Virginia Tech Hokies
5 of 10
Projected Seed: No. 6
Seeded Here Because: No one knows what to make of Virginia Tech's resume. The Hokies are top-15 both on KenPom and the NET, which would suggest they deserve a No. 4 seed. But they were No. 10 in the NET at the time of the selection committee's reveal of the top 16 and were nowhere to be found. Those high rankings are at least somewhat due to eight Quadrant 4 home wins by an average margin of 32.6 points—which is probably why the committee left them out—but they have yet to suffer a loss outside of Quadrant 1.
Bread and Butter: Threes, threes and more threes. The Hokies shoot nearly 42 percent from three-point range, and only one player in their primary eight-man rotation (P.J. Horne) averages fewer than 1.5 attempts per game. Ty Outlaw is the best of the bunch, but all seven shoot at least 37.5 percent from distance. It's hard for opposing teams to stop all those options.
Star Player: Nickeil Alexander-Walker is the biggest star, but Kerry Blackshear Jr. is Virginia Tech's most important player. At 6'10", he's the only guy taller than 6'6", making him the anchor of its zone defense. It should come as no surprise that he's the Hokies' best rebounder and the top shot-blocker, but he's also an above-average passer and a big man who can score from all over the court. Plus, his presence in the paint is a big part of why VT can almost always find a good look from the perimeter.
March Madness Ceiling: This depends on whether or not Justin Robinson is available. The senior point guard suffered an ankle injury Jan. 30 and hasn't played since. One doesn't need look too hard at Virginia Tech's numbers to see his absence is having an adverse effect on the offense. If he's healthy for the tournament, Virginia Tech could shoot its way to the Elite Eight. If Robinson can't play, though, it'd be a surprise for the Hokies to reach the second weekend.
5. Syracuse Orange
6 of 10
Projected Seed: No. 9
Seeded Here Because: Early losses to Connecticut, Oregon and Old Dominion dropped Syracuse to the wrong side of the bubble before conference play even began, but the Orange are 8-4 in ACC play with a colossal road win over Duke, so they're in the field with a little room to spare now. Four of their next five games are against Duke, Louisville, North Carolina and Virginia, though, so stay tuned.
Bread and Butter: Syracuse often can't hit the broad side of a barn on offense, but that 2-3 zone is causing problems, per usual. The Orange entered the weekend tied with Duke for the best block percentage in the nation, and they were also eighth in turnover percentage.
Star Player: Elijah Hughes is the best shooter and Oshae Brissett the best rebounder, but the biggest star is Tyus Battle. The fun thing about Battle is there is no telling whether he's going to have a great game or an awful one. He has scored at least 21 points in five of his last nine games, but he was held to 10 or fewer in the other four. He is leading the Orange in scoring, though, and he's the one who needs to show up in the tournament.
March Madness Ceiling: Putting a cap on what Syracuse can do is a fool's errand. The Orange made the Final Four as a No. 10 seed three years ago and went from a play-in game to the brink of the Elite Eight this past season. Teams who don't often see a zone defense do some dumb things against it, and this team is experienced enough to capitalize on those opportunities. If the Orange do end up as either a No. 8 or 9 seed, I won't be picking them to upset the corresponding No. 1 seed, but I also won't be that stunned if they pull it off.
4. Wofford Terriers
7 of 10
Projected Seed: No. 10
Seeded Here Because: Pardon my brief rant, but Wofford is a projected No. 10 seed in the Bracket Matrix because a lot of bracketologists don't pay any mind to teams from minor conferences. The Terriers may well be in a 7/10 game in the first round, but they ought to be the No. 7 seed instead. With two Quadrant 1 wins, no losses outside of Quadrant 1 and an impressive 8-3 road record, this is a better resume than what Auburn, Cincinnati, TCU or Washington is bringing to the table—and it should be seeded as such.
Bread and Butter: Wofford is arguably the best three-point shooting team in the country. Fletcher Magee struggled to find his stroke in November and December, but he has been on fire since the start of 2019—and he is one of just four Terriers averaging at least 3.0 attempts per game and making at least 40 percent of them. In their last eight games, the Terriers have averaged 13.4 threes and are shooting 48.9 percent. It's more than a little ridiculous.
Star Player: Take your pick between Magee and Cameron Jackson. The former is the sharpshooter who recently passed JJ Redick for second place on the NCAA's career three-point field goals leaderboard. The latter adds more value on a per-minute/per-possession basis than just about every player in the nation not named Zion Williamson. Jackson's rebounding, defense and ability to get to the free-throw line are no small part of what makes Wofford so good.
March Madness Ceiling: Wofford is far from your average plucky mid-major team that might be able to pull off one upset. The Terriers' defensive effort leaves something to be desired, and the offense wasn't so proficient in the first-month-of-the-season losses to North Carolina, Kansas and Oklahoma. But this is legitimately one of the 25 best teams this year and one that could make a run to the Final Four.
3. Florida State Seminoles
8 of 10
Projected Seed: No. 6
Seeded Here Because: Florida State built up one heck of a resume early in the season, knocking off Florida, LSU and Purdue in November. The 'Noles went into a bit of a tailspin in mid-January, acquiring not-great road losses to Pittsburgh and Boston College. But they have turned things around since then with seven consecutive wins, including blowing out Syracuse on the road and eking out a home win over Louisville.
Bread and Butter: It's not one particular thing that Florida State does well but rather the ability to exploit the opponent's biggest weakness. In the win over Syracuse, the Seminoles beat the zone by shooting 50 percent from three. Against Louisville, they were plus-15 in turnover margin. In the overtime win over LSU, FSU had 22 offensive rebounds to the Tigers' four. This team is a lethal chameleon.
Star Player: You can easily make the case for Mfiondu Kabengele since he's a versatile, shot-blocking big man who gets to (and converts from) the free-throw line a ton. But Kabengele doesn't start and he barely averages 20 minutes per game, so we're going with Terance Mann. The 6'7" senior wing-forward averages 11.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game while shooting 48 percent from distance. His usage rate isn't as high as it probably should be, but he's good for at least one 20-point outburst per month.
March Madness Ceiling: If the Seminoles do end up as a No. 6 seed, they're the type of overlooked team that most experts will target as landing on the wrong end of a likely first-round upset. Just be aware that as far as KenPom rankings are concerned, this might be the best team Leonard Hamilton has had in his 17 years as the head coach at Florida State. Because of their adaptability, the Seminoles are a dangerous team—just like they were during last year's trip to the Elite Eight as a No. 9 seed. The Final Four is attainable here.
2. Auburn Tigers
9 of 10
Projected Seed: No. 8
Seeded Here Because: One of the worst-kept secrets among bracketologists is that Auburn hasn't beaten anyone good. The Tigers scored a home win over Washington on the fourth day of the regular season, and that's about it. But aside from a road loss to a South Carolina team wreaking havoc on the SEC's at-large prospects, they also don't have any losses to teams outside the top 35 of the NET. A win over Kentucky or Tennessee could vault Auburn up a few seed lines. Conversely, one loss to a Georgia or Vanderbilt would put this team in serious bubble trouble.
Bread and Butter: Auburn both blocks shots and forces turnovers at one of the highest rates in the country. Opponents who can handle that pressure tend to score with ease against the Tigers. But when they're flexing their muscles on defense and getting fast-break opportunities, they are tough to beat. Auburn is also a great three-point shooting team that ranks top-20 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage too, so impact defense isn't the only specialty here.
Star Player: Bryce Brown and Jared Harper are the primary three-point assassins, but Chuma Okeke is the Swiss Army knife who ties everything together. He leads the Tigers in rebounding and steals, ranks second in assists and is third in blocks and points. He shoots better than 60 percent from inside the arc and nearly 35 percent beyond it.
March Madness Ceiling: Despite a lack of quality wins, Auburn feels like one of the fringe teams that could win it all. The Tigers put up a good fight against Duke in Maui. They almost won a home game against Kentucky when the Wildcats were hotter than the sun. They had a 16-point lead at LSU, but they let it slip away. Those "almosts" don't count for much on the resume, but it's evidence Auburn isn't far behind those title contenders.
1. Maryland Terrapins
10 of 10
Projected Seed: No. 6
Seeded Here Because: Maryland has five Quadrant 1 wins, the best of which were home games against Purdue and Wisconsin. The Terrapins also have a couple of unflattering losses to Seton Hall and Illinois. But as long as they don't crash and burn in these final three weeks, they'll be dancing with plenty of room to spare.
Bread and Butter: Led by Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith, Maryland is one of the best rebounding teams on both ends of the floor. Both frontcourt phenoms recorded a double-double in the recent win over Nebraska, and Fernando is averaging a double-double for the year. Some basketball analysts will argue that rebound margin is the most meaningless statistic in a box score, but I would argue that averaging 10 more rebounds than the opposition is a great starting point for success.
Star Player: With all due respect to veteran point guard Anthony Cowan, Maryland is the Fernando Show. The sophomore center is putting up 14.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.9 blocks while shooting 66.1 percent from the field and 75.9 percent from the free-throw line. He does commit more than his fair share of turnovers, but that's a byproduct of being asked to do so much for this team.
March Madness Ceiling: While it is concerning that Maryland's offense has not been anywhere near as good away from home (65.6 PPG) as it has been in College Park (78.0 PPG), the Terrapins look the part of a team that could go all the way. Their only real weakness is in the turnovers department, but if that hasn't stopped Michigan State from emerging as one of the top candidates to win the title, why should it keep Maryland from entering the conversation? With everyone else searching for centers who can shoot threes, Maryland just might have a market inefficiency with its pair of dominant big men.
All statistics current through the start of play Monday. Advanced statistics courtesy of KenPom.com.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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