The Complete Super Bowl Betting Guide: Odds, Props and Picks
Super Bowl LIII could be a lot of things. If the bookmakers are accurate, it'll be both close and high-scoring. And regardless of the result, it'll factor in when we eventually assess the legacies of legends Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
But this unique rematch might also go down in history as the first Super Bowl in which betting was broadly conducted, accepted and even celebrated.
"The interest in legal, regulated sports betting in the United States has never been higher," the president and CEO of the American Gaming Association, Bill Miller, noted in a press release this week, per David Purdum of ESPN.com. "More Americans than ever before will be able to place their bets with legal sportsbooks now operating in eight states."
The release boasted that Americans are expected to (legally and illegally) bet $6 billion on either the New England Patriots or Los Angeles Rams.
Most of that money apparently continues to pour in on the Pats, who as of Friday were laying 2.5 points, and many expect that line to eventually move to -3. But the Action Network's chief content officer, Chad Millman, warns potential bettors to avoid laying down money simply for the sake of it.
"Pay attention to the market," he told Bleacher Report this week, noting that gamblers often ignore the market in favor of X's and O's or other factors. "See what the market is doing, and see if you're in favor of what they're doing. If you are, then you probably want to stay away. If you aren't and you think they're wrong, then take the other side."
In other words: Keep it simple, stupid.
Here's a look at the markets surrounding the line, the total and the props, along with our predictions for Sunday's highly touted season finale at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
What You Need to Know
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When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET — The coin toss came up tails in four consecutive Super Bowls before the Patriots won with heads last year.
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta — And the roof might just be open.
TV: CBS — Tony Romo was made for prop bets!
Referee: John Parry — Per Talk of Fame Network's Rick Gosselin, the Rams are 7-0 in games worked by Parry since 2008, while the Patriots were penalized a season-high 14 times by Parry's crew in a Week 15 loss to Pittsburgh.
Line: New England -2.5 — It opened at -1, and then most of the betting public jumped on the Pats.
Over/Under Total: 56 — It opened at 57.5, which would have been the highest over/under in Super Bowl history.
Injury Notes
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New England Patriots
Every active member of the Patriots practiced this past week, which is remarkable this time of year. Still, wide receiver Josh Gordon has been suspended indefinitely since December, and semi-key players Eric Rowe and Jeremy Hill are on injured reserve.
The New England offense hasn't missed a beat the last few weeks without the talented Gordon, mainly because because of catch-happy running back James White and the suddenly healthy-looking Rob Gronkowski. But the Pats sure would love to have a threat like Gordon against a vulnerable Los Angeles secondary.
Los Angeles Rams
Three key Rams special teamers—safety Blake Countess (foot), punter Johnny Hekker (illness) and kicker Greg Zuerlein (left foot)—missed practice time last week but should be good to go against New England, so L.A. is in superb shape. But, interestingly, the Rams are missing a key receiver in Cooper Kupp, who went down with a torn ACL in November.
The L.A. offense hasn't been quite as consistently crisp without Kupp, who was a major safety valve for third-year quarterback Jared Goff, but regular No. 4 receiver Josh Reynolds hasn't performed badly in place of his fellow 2017 middle-round pick. So it's unlikely the injuries we know about will impact the outcome of this game.
Prop Bets You Can Take to the Bank
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First touchdown scorer for the Patriots: James White (+450)
Sony Michel is all the rage right now, but let's not forget that White scored twice as many touchdowns as any other player on the New England roster this season. The whole world expects Coach Belichick to shove the ball down the throat of a vulnerable Rams run defense with the red-hot Michel early on, which is why he likely won't do that. Take the +450 money line (bet $100 to win $450).
Total touchdowns for the Rams in the first half: Under 1.5 (-115)
Including the playoffs, the New England defense surrendered an average of 9.3 points per first half this season, which was the third-lowest mark in the NFL. In their first two postseason games, the Patriots outscored the Chargers and Chiefs 49-7 before halftime.
Look for Belichick and defensive play-caller Brian Flores to keep the Rams in check early, especially because there's a chance the young L.A. team will be a deer in Super Bowl-sized headlights.
Total passing yards for Tom Brady: Over 300.5 (-120)
Even though the Pats basically utilized a run-first approach in their first two playoff games, Brady threw for over 300 yards in both. Only three defenses gave up more 20-yard passing plays this season than the Rams, and L.A. had trouble a couple of weeks ago with Saints running back Alvin Kamara, who had 96 receiving yards in the NFC title game.
Whether it's by 1,000 cuts or abetted by a big strike or two, Brady should easily hit the 300 mark.
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Prop Bets to Avoid
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Any time touchdown scorer
Both offenses have so many weapons that there's nothing close to a certainty here. The top odds lie with Sony Michel (-225) and Todd Gurley (-200), but there's no telling what kind of role either will play. The unpredictable Belichick could decide to lean more on his veterans, while it remains unclear why Gurley—the only consistent touchdown scorer this year for the Rams—received just five touches in the NFC Championship Game. This logic applies to any props involving Gurley or fellow back C.J. Anderson.
Total successful field goals
The over 4.5 is tempting at +230 after the Rams attempted eight field goals in their first two playoff games, especially because both the L.A. and New England offenses have had their struggles in the red zone. But the Rams might be working from a large early deficit and won't likely settle often under those circumstances. The odds for anything below 4.5 aren't satisfactory. Stay away from kicking props.
Total receiving yards for Rob Gronkowski
The over/under is 54.5 at -115, which just isn't worth the risk on either side. Gronk went for 79 yards against Kansas City. But he had just 70 yards total in his previous four games, and he went over 54.5 only five times during the regular season. It's tough to tell if he has suddenly rediscovered his magic or if his performance against the Chiefs was anomaly.
Silly Prop Bets You Can Take to the Bank
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Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his speech?: Family or Family Member (+500)
Tom Brady is the odds-on favorite to win the MVP award. And if you've been paying attention to Brady's interviews of late, you'll notice that he frequently gives shoutouts to his parents before he even answers the first question. With those friendly odds (bet $100 to win $500)—teammates and God are the favorites—this is a no-brainer.
How long will it take Gladys Knight to sing the U.S. national anthem?: Over 1:47 (-160)
Per NFL Online Betting, an anthem hasn't been sung faster than one minute and 47 seconds since Kelly Clarkson covered it in 1:34 prior to Super Bowl XLVI. So, why is this total so low? There is video of Knight singing it live in roughly 1:45 back in 1991, but I'd expect a veteran to take a little more time in a moment like this.
Will a fan run onto the field during the game?: Yes (+800)
In the current political and social climate, this feels like a damn lock. It's surprising to see such long odds, especially considering that there was a field runner during the AFC Championship Game.
Silly Prop Bets to Avoid
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What color liquid will be poured on the game-winning coach?
Bill Belichick almost never receives Gatorade showers, so there's a strong chance this won't settle either way. Regardless, lime/green/yellow at +225 makes the most sense considering the Rams' colors—the Eagles were yellow, while the Broncos were orange—but that has by far the lowest payout.
Will a non-QB throw a touchdown?
This is tempting because both offenses are unpredictable and sometimes wild. But you have to think it's unlikely it'll happen two years in a row, and "yes" isn't paying close to enough at +350.
What will happen to the price of Bitcoin during the Super Bowl?
Predicting Bitcoin trends is famously tough to do, and now we're being asked to either buy or short it within a four-hour window? No thanks. Don't spend your Super Bowl Sunday watching cryptocurrency. You have the whole offseason for that.
Line Movement
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Right off the bat, a lot of books listed this game as a pick'em. Some even had the Patriots getting a point. But that didn't last long because a wave of early money came in on New England, pushing the Pats to -2.5.
"That's a little bit unusual like an hour after a game opens," Millman said, "so that's when professional bettors start to think about [that movement] much more aggressively."
But after that early jump, the spread hasn't moved. Millman noted that the leap from -2.5 to -3 is one that gives sportsbooks plenty of stress.
"I think bookmakers were wary of moving it to three," he said, "because they knew that the second they did the Rams money would come in. They don't want to be pingponging back and forth. They saw the Patriots money coming in, they're going to hold it at 2.5 as long as they can. Someone did post it at three for about 15 minutes, they got dinged, and it went back down to 2.5, and it's kind of holding steady because of that."
Still, if you're on the Rams, you might want to consider waiting to see if a book will give you three or even 3.5 points Sunday afternoon. Millman thinks that if the books are going to move to or above a field goal, it'll happen "at the last possible second."
"Once you get to that number," he said, "you don't want to come off it. So they're just trying to be really careful."
The Pick
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Six of the last eight Super Bowls have been decided by one score, which could mean we're due for a blowout. While the Rams are as talented as New England, the experience gap that separates these teams could give the Pats a chance to finally run away with one of these games.
The Patriots have been here, done this. That hasn't resulted in any complacency. They look as focused and inspired as ever, and all that's left for them to redeem themselves from last year's crushing Super Bowl experience is a victory over an opponent that is dangerously young and inexperienced.
When you're dealing with the Super Bowl, that matters.
The Rams have a bright future, but they might not be ready to slay Goliath. They're lucky to be here after a slow start and a fortuitous finish in New Orleans, and head coach Sean McVay—who has made some confounding decisions of late—will have a tough time matching wits with Bill Belichick.
The Rams might need to experience a Super Bowl failure as part of their maturation process.
Sure, they have an offensive superstar in Todd Gurley, but the All-Pro running back hasn't been himself of late and was hardly a factor against the Saints. And sure, they have Aaron Donald, but the Defensive Player of the Year shoo-in might have trouble battling an offensive line that has yet to surrender a sack in the playoffs as well as a quarterback who gets the ball out in nanoseconds.
New England's defense is much better than last year's Super Bowl D. The unit surrendered just 14.8 points per game during the final six weeks of the regular season and has been lights-out with just seven total points allowed in the first halves of their first two playoff games.
And the Pats suddenly have a killer power-running game that should have a field day against a vulnerable Rams run defense. Despite a strong pass rush, Los Angeles gave up a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry on the ground during the regular season.
It's not a great matchup both on paper and intangibly. Look for New England to take advantage of that with a double-digit victory.
New England -2.5
The Over/Under Pick
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The New England offense is in a groove, and Tom Brady looks dialed in. That unit has averaged 38.7 points per game in its last three outings, and it doesn't look like the Rams can slow down Brady and Co.
The Los Angeles defense hasn't fared poorly in the playoffs, but the Rams surrendered 30-plus points in seven of their last 13 regular-season games and finished the year 20th in scoring defense. They gave up 96 total points in two matchups with the Saints and Chiefs alone, and New England's offense is on that level.
The Rams might not be able to get to Brady. Dante Scarnecchia's offensive line hasn't allowed its quarterback to be sacked on 90 postseason passes, and Brady should have plenty of opportunities to complete quick passes to James White. The Rams defense struggled to cover Saints running back Alvin Kamara on flat and wheel routes, and there's little reason to believe it'll stop White.
Throw in that Michel is hot and the Rams run defense is vulnerable, and New England could push the 40-point mark.
Meanwhile, the Rams have the NFC's highest-scoring offense. They're loaded with weapons, and they'll eventually score some points even if they start slowly. The relatively old and slow New England defense has struggled a bit in second halves in the playoffs, and there's no such thing as garbage time in the Super Bowl. The Rams will do everything in their power to save face and find the end zone even if it is a blowout.
Look for them to at least score 20 points.
Over
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