Super Bowl 2019: MVP Favorites and Predictions for Patriots vs. Rams

From the field to the sidelines, Super Bowl LIII offers a surplus of star power.

Just like last weekend's conference championship games, the storylines are working overtime.

Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay can add to his swiftly growing legend by matching wits with New England Patriots sage Bill Belichick. Unless this is the first piece of Super Bowl content consumed so far, chances are readers already know about the age gap. 

Let's not give all the attention to the guys donning khakis and a hoodie as the players put their bodies and minds on the line for gridiron glory.

Arguably the greatest quarterback (Tom Brady) and tight end (Rob Gronkowski) of all time will take the field next Sunday.

They'll share Mercedes-Benz Stadium with defensive stalwart Aaron Donald and fantasy football savior Todd Gurley, who scored 21 touchdowns in 14 regular-season games before an untimely dud.

That leaves plenty of intrigue and a plethora of Super Bowl MVP candidates.

Super Bowl LIII

Date: Sunday, February 3 at 6:40 p.m. ET

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta

TV: CBS

Spread (via OddsChecker): New England (-2.5)

MVP Favorites

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The MVP favorites, courtesy of OddsChecker, should surprise nobody:

• Tom Brady: 1-1
• Jared Goff: 2-1
• Todd Gurley: 14-1
• Sony Michel: 16-1
• Aaron Donald: 20-1
• C.J. Anderson: 20-1
• James White: 33-1
• Julian Edelman: 33-1
• Rob Gronkowski: 33-1
• Brandin Cooks: 50-1
• Robert Woods: 50-1

History certainly favors Brady and Jared Goff, as quarterbacks encompassed nine of the last 12 Super Bowl MVPs. That includes two of Brady's four trophies, and the opposing signal-caller won in all three of Brady's losses.

Brady, who somehow captured the award despite posting a mundane 145 passing yards in Super Bowl XXXVI's stunner over the Rams, has set a new record for Super Bowl passing yards in each of the last two title bouts. He's averaging 357.2 passing yards on 46.9 attempts in his past 10 postseason games.

Just don't dismiss the possibility of another run-heavy attack. Although they stuffed Ezekiel Elliott, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to 93 combined rushing yards en route to Atlanta, no team permitted more yards per carry than the Rams (5.1) during the regular season.

A postseason workhorse, Sony Michel may add to his gaudy 242 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 53 postseason handoffs. The MVP designation, however, remains a long shot for the rookie.

Per Pro Football Reference, he played just one more snap (34) than James White and four more than Rex Burkhead—who scored the game-winning touchdown in the AFC Championship Game.

He'd also have to defy history and become the first running back since Terrell Davis in 1998. That's also more than enough reason to shy away from the Rams' suddenly tricky backfield.

The Patriots permitted a paltry 60 rushing yards to the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. While the Rams should fare better, there's no guarantee Gurley will monopolize the workload over C.J. Anderson, who surprisingly spelled the star in New Orleans.

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

After escaping the Superdome with an overtime win over the Saints, per ESPN.com's Lindsey Thiry, McVay explained his unconventional decision.

"That was just kind of the feel for the flow of the game that we had," McVay said when asked about Gurley's lesser role. "Not anything against Todd. C.J. did a nice job, but I thought that they did a nice job as a whole, slowing down our run game, and we kind of just had to grind some things out."

While Gurley should reclaim a featured role, that doesn't mean Anderson will vanish entirely. Having only broken off two runs beyond 15 yards since joining the Rams, Anderson needs at least 20 carries just to factor into the conversation.

And yet it's difficult to ignore Los Angeles' late commitment to the run. Goff has attempted just 118 passes over the last four games, and a line like last weekend's 297 passing yards and one touchdown may not be enough if someone else makes his presence felt.

Someone like the game's top defensive player, who may just be the best player. He'll need some sacks and perhaps a forced fumble to truly capture voters' attention, but Donald is a human wrecking ball with the ability to single-handedly disrupt Brady's passing pocket.

The Defensive Player of the Year favorite is the best MVP pick beyond the quarterbacks. Those seeking an even deeper sleeper from Los Angeles' defensive line can turn to a resurgent Ndamukong Suh, who has submitted two quarterback hits and a tackle for loss in each postseason triumph.

Prediction

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The MVP, of course, depends on which team hoists the Lombardi Trophy. Not even 505 passing yards and three touchdowns could make Brady an award-winning loser last year.

The line quickly shifted from the Rams to Patriots, who have gained narrow breathing room as 2.5-point favorites. This shift likely stems (understandably so) from bettors not wanting to oppose Brady and Belichick in a big spot.

Regardless of whether anyone truly ever doubted them, the Patriots silenced any contrarian skeptics by collecting 397 more total yards than the Chargers and Chiefs.

Their ground game has dominated in January without sacrificing the aerial attack. They have also bolstered a shaky rushing defense while allowing Philip Rivers and Patrick Mahomes to complete half of their combined 82 passes.

As is often the case, the Patriots are peaking at the perfect time. The Rams, on the other hand, no longer resemble an unstoppable offensive dynamo without Cooper Kupp. They could be in major trouble if Gurley doesn't rebound in a major win.

McVay may have an L.A. Special or two up his sleeve, but Belichick's squad is too hot to pick against. That will make Brady the likely recipient of his fifth Super Bowl MVP honor.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Rams 27