Dustin Pedroia: When Do We Start Talking?

Heading into the season, Red Sox fans had concerns. Not as many concerns as most teams, obviously, but no team is perfect. How would the back end of the rotation be sorted out (major depth, not a problem)? Will Curt Schilling ever return (likely yes)? Is the back end of the bullpen a joke (on some days)? Any chance Craig Hansen or Daniel Bard resurrect their careers (yes in a big way)? How will the centerfield situation be handled, and will it be handled properly (still confused)?

One question we were neglecting to ask: Will Dustin Pedroia have a second-year downfall?

The answer so far in 2008 is a resounding yes.

It didn’t appear that way in the beginning. Pedroia rushed through April producing very adequate numbers for a second baseman: .303/.346/.420 for a 109 OPS+. Very acceptable totals. May brought a challenge for the reigning rookie of the year: .260/.295/.374, with the fear beginning to slowly creep into the minds of Sox Nation, although nobody really discussed it out loud. In June, Pedroia, in just 22 PA, has one hit.

His total line on the season is .266/.313/.375, 83 OPS+, 16 BB/28 K (47/42 in 2007).

There isn’t any doubt Terry Francona is going to stick with Pedroia. One of his finest moves of 2007 was refusing to give up on the rookie 2B when he hit just .172/.308/.236 in April. That scenario is slightly different, though: 1) that production came from the 9-hole, a situation teams can survive especially with our lineup, and 2) the “still adjusting to big league pitching” excuse can be used. In this case, Pedroia is simply not getting it done for us with a .313 OBP out of the 2-hole.

Julio Lugo is constantly dragged through the mud by Red Sox fans, but at least his OBP is .355. For someone hitting in front of Ortiz and Ramirez, managing the lowest OBP on the team is very concerning.

Pedroia does make it up in some ways. For one, his defense has been positively Gold Glove-esque for the first two months of the season. I can remember countless outstanding diving plays at second base that saved leads and ballgames. For his small frame, the range Pedroia has at his position is remarkable. That alone brings his value up even with the below average numbers.

This doesn’t excuse the 0 for 4 last night against Seattle, or the 0 for 8 he put up vs. Tampa, or the fact he has two multi-hit games since May 21, or that his once remarkable .364/.418/.523 line last in April has now plummeted to .266/.313/.375. Does some adjustment need to be made?

The proper question that should be asked is: Will an adjustment be made? And the answer is probably no. Francona’s leash is always very long with established regulars moving them from permanent batting slots. It took him plenty of time to figure out Drew shouldn’t be our #5 hitter. Nobody is suggesting Alex Cora should receive tons of at-bats any time soon. But, would pushing Pedroia down in the order help?

J.D. Drew stands at .310/.413/.476 on the season. He seems like a player that fits the #2 mold.

Kevin Youkilis is at .300/.369/.511 on the year, and he’s hit #2 before, including the 2007 postseason.

What do the Fire Brander’s think: Should Pedroia be moved down in the order until his slump is broken?