2018 AAC Championship Game Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 27, 2018

Central Florida's Darriel Mack Jr. (8) scrambles away from East Carolina's Nate Harvey (40) during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Greenville, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 20, 2018. (AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker)
Karl B DeBlaker/Associated Press

Central Florida owns 11 straight wins in the rivalry with Memphis, including a wild double-overtime victory in the American Athletic Conference championship game last season and a one-point decision earlier this season. The Knights are lined as short favorites over the Tigers for Saturday afternoon's AAC championship game rematch on UCF's home field in Orlando.

College football point spread: The Knights opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 42.8-39.6 Knights (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the Memphis Tigers can cover the spread

Memphis finished its regular-season slate with four straight wins/covers, after beating a ranked Houston outfit last Friday 52-31. That game was tied at 31-31 through three quarters before the Tigers scored three touchdowns in six minutes to pull away and cover as 10-point favorites.

On the afternoon Memphis out-gained the Cougars 610-394, out-rushed Houston 401-138 and won time of possession by a 34/26 split.

So the Tigers have out-gained and out-rushed each of their four opponents during their winning streak. They've also hit the 50-point mark six times in 12 games this season.

Why the UCF Knights can cover the spread

UCF just completed its second straight undefeated regular season and extended its overall winning streak to 24 in a row with a 38-10 victory/cover at South Florida last Friday. The Knights scored the first 17 points of the game, let the Bulls get within 17-10 in the third quarter, then scored the last 21 points and cashed in as 16-point favorites.

On the afternoon Central Florida out-gained USF 558-310, running the ball for 391 yards. So the Knights are now 16-7-1 ATS during their winning streak, scoring at least 31 points in every game.

Central Florida lost quarterback McKenzie Milton last week for the season to a knee injury, but backup Darriel Mack is 1-0 as a starter, having led the Knights to a 37-10 victory over East Carolina a month ago.

At 11-0 overall, Central Florida clings to slim hopes of making the College Football Playoff. Its only chance is to win this game by blowout and hope for plenty of help from elsewhere.

Smart betting pick

This is the fourth meeting between these teams over the last 14 months. UCF won the regular-season meeting last year 40-13, then outlasted Memphis in the AAC title contest 62-55 in double-OT. The Knights then rallied from a 30-14 deficit to tip the Tigers back in October 31-30. Now Central Florida must play this game without its starting quarterback. Smart money here likes Memphis.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in three of Memphis's last four games vs Central Florida.

The total has gone under in six of Central Florida's last seven games vs its conference.

Memphis is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs its conference.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.