The New England Patriots (7-3) hope to get back on track after their bye week Sunday when they visit the New York Jets (3-7) as large road favorites at sportsbooks.
The Patriots lost 34-10 to the Tennessee Titans as 6.5-point road favorites prior to their bye, and they have gone an impressive 12-3 straight up but 8-6-1 against the spread in their last 15 games following an off week, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.1-20.3 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Patriots can cover the spread
It is time for New England's annual stretch run toward the playoffs, which has resulted in Super Bowl appearances three of the previous four years. Whether or not this Patriots team can ultimately find a way to get past the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers in the race for the top two seeds in the AFC remains to be seen, but they already have a win over the former and will visit the latter down the road in Week 15.
In other words, they control their own destiny to some degree, and they simply cannot afford to stumble here. They are 13-4 SU the last 17 times they have visited the Jets.
Why the Jets can cover the spread
New York is 5-0 ATS in the past five home meetings with New England, with all of them decided by seven points or less. In fact, two of those games turned out to be upset wins, with the last coming three seasons ago.
Rookie Sam Darnold (foot) will not get the start for the second straight game, setting up the second-oldest quarterback matchup in league history between 39-year-old Josh McCown of the Jets and 41-year-old Tom Brady of the Patriots. McCown's experience should definitely benefit him and his team in this spot opposite Brady, as he will also be looking to rebound from a rough outing in the team's last game versus the Buffalo Bills. He helped them cover as nine-point home underdogs against New England last year with 354 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Smart betting pick
This is another big number for the Patriots to cover, but they have dominated AFC East opponents overall dating back to 2014. They are 20-5 SU and 14-9-2 ATS in their last 25 divisional games, covering four straight and eight of 10. This is an angry New England team that will be fired-up after losing at Tennessee, so bet on an easy cover.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone under in the Patriots' last four games vs the Jets.
The Patriots are 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on the road.
The total has gone under in six of the Patriots' last eight games on the road.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.