Who Is Going to Be World Football's First €100M Centre-Back?
For a while, we've been barrelling toward the slightly uncomfortable reality of nine-figure transfer fees becoming the norm in football, as the last few transfer windows have seriously upped the stakes in terms of money spent.
In the summer of 2017, Neymar (€222 million) and Kylian Mbappe (€135 million) joined Paris Saint-Germain, warping the market to the point where average players were moving clubs for €40 million.
With that faintly ridiculous standard set, clubs started forking out serious premiums for top-quality talent.
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Barcelona replaced Neymar with Ousmane Dembele, who cost €115 million. We saw full-backs Benjamin Mendy (€57.5 million) and Kyle Walker (€53 million) move to Manchester City for mega fees, ripping the script up with regard to how much players in that position were "supposed" to cost.
Six months later, Liverpool set an eye-watering record in paying €79 million for Virgil van Dijk, a central defender.
The following summer, Cristiano Ronaldo transferred for €117 million despite being 33, and goalkeepers Alisson Becker (€72.5 million) and Kepa Arrizabalaga (€80 million) redefined the value of the man between the sticks.
It won't stop here; fees will only continue to rise as more money filters into the game. Soon, position groups other than strikers and wingers will begin to cost nine-figure sums, and there will be deals we'll be left scratching our heads at.
As a result of the heightened appreciation for what an elite centre-back can do for a team—partially thanks to the impact Van Dijk has made at Anfield—it feels as though we are on the precipice of the first €100 million player in that position.
Don't expect him to materialise in January, but the summer of 2019 feels ripe for a move of that magnitude.
So who could it be? Who is so irrepressibly good that they qualify as a candidate for history-making and will have their name remembered forever as part of a landmark move?
The Criteria
For a club to spend such an amount, the player will have to fit certain criteria:
- World-class or potential world-class ability
- Top-level/international experience
- An age bracket of 22-28
- An excellent injury record
- Playing for a club who could feasibly sell
That more or less rules out a number of the best centre-backs in the game.
The established top order, including the likes of Diego Godin, Giorgio Chiellini, Mats Hummels and Sergio Ramos, are all either 30-plus years of age or close to that mark. They all play for top European clubs, and a big-money transfer at this stage is basically unthinkable.
Raphael Varane and Samuel Umtiti would be well worth €100 million, and their ages (both 25) place them at the right point in their careers for a transfer like this. Varane's injury record isn't perfect, but it's not so bad as to cause major concern.
The problem those two would face is that they play for Real Madrid and Barcelona, respectively, two of the best clubs in the world with a presumed zero interest in selling their defensive bedrocks. If either Varane or Umtiti went on sale tomorrow, one of them would become the first €100 million centre-back—we just think that's unlikely, so we're ruling them out of contention.
Instead, we're looking at a less-established crop of players as the prime candidates to breach the €100 million mark. We've split them into two categories: the outsiders, who'd need quite a lot of things to fall their way to become a €100 million player; and the two genuine contenders, who could quite easily make history in the next 18 months.
The Outside Contenders
Daniele Rugani, 24, Juventus
Rugani has spent several years stuck behind Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci, Medhi Benatia and Andrea Barzagli in the Juventus pecking order.
It's a shame, as given the chance to fully blossom, there's every chance he could at least match the latter two's ability level and perhaps even give the former two a run for their money.
There's still plenty of time left in his top-shelf career, though, and centre-backs with his aptitude for both passing and clean tackling are fairly rare. If he were to move from Juve now, he'd cost nowhere close to €100 million, but given two years in the team, he could feasibly become one of the best in the business.
Jose Maria Gimenez, 23, Atletico Madrid
Gimenez has the sort of defensive grit that managers adore. That he'd dive head-first into a tackle if it meant preventing even a corner kick gives him an edge you don't often find.
Working alongside and under the tutelage of Diego Godin at Atletico Madrid and for Uruguay, Gimenez developed top-tier defensive traits at lightning speed. He's powerful, strong, aggressive, great in the air and marshals attackers well.
There's still some work to be done on his distribution—though it's not as spotty as it was three years ago—but it's a coachable issue. It might actually be the only issue he has.
Matthijs de Ligt, 19, Ajax
Virgil van Dijk was asked about Liverpool's links to De Ligt on international duty this week, and his response to De Telegraaf (h/t Liverpool Echo) was: "They will pay less for Matthijs! The amount for me was very high, though."
Not that Van Dijk is brokering the potential deal, but that does essentially rule out De Ligt's first move hitting the €100 million mark. What his price would be if he moved again, though, is a serious question and qualifies him as an outsider here.
So long as De Ligt's first move isn't to the likes of Barcelona or Real Madrid, there remains room for him to move again for an even bigger fee. Say he costs a team like Liverpool or Roma €50 million in 2019; his price could conceivably double in the space of two years if another giant comes calling.
The Candidates
Milan Skriniar, 23, Inter Milan
Even among the established top order, there aren't many centre-backs in the game who can claim to be as complete as Skriniar.
His rise has been stark; fourteen months ago, few other than Slovakians and Serie A aficionados knew who he was. Signing for Inter Milan for €20 million last summer catapulted him on to a much bigger stage, and he was incredible in 2017-18, playing every single league minute as the Nerazzurri finished fourth.
Along the way, he showed every skill you'd ask for in a centre-back: robustness, recovery speed, a clean, firm tackle, aerial prowess and an ability to bring the ball out from the back. At times he'd stride forward, look up and slam a 30-yarder into the top corner.
In the summer, La Gazzetta dello Sport (h/t TeamTalk) reported Manchester United's interest in Skriniar, suggesting a bid of £57 million (€64.2 million) had been tabled, but Inter were looking for £70 million (€78.9 million).
With the player simply getting better and better, and now with a Champions League campaign under his belt, it's conceivable his price nudges into the nine-figure mark.
Skriniar is practically system-proof. He's not a certain type of defender who would only thrive in a certain ecosystem (i.e. John Stones in a possession-heavy team), but one who can drop into any template and thrive. That broadens his options and widens his appeal considerably, which lends well to the argument he could break the barrier.
Kalidou Koulibaly, 27, Napoli
Koulibaly's performances against Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool in the last month raised eyebrows and gained him fans.
Coming up against two of the world's fiercest attacks—one featuring Kylian Mbappe, Edinson Cavani and Neymar, the other housing Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino—he dominated, making the pitch his own personal playground.
The Senegalese boasts the sort of eclectic footballing education few—if any—others can. Passing from Metz to Napoli with a two-year stop-over in Belgium with Genk in the middle, he's been steadily formed in three different leagues. He's played under Rafa Benitez, Maurizio Sarri and Carlo Ancelotti, three coaches who between them can teach a centre-back almost everything he needs to know.
Like Skriniar, he's extremely well-rounded. Strong and quick off the mark, he uses his bulk well. Whether he's defending the channels, his own box or balls over the top, he's almost always first to it, snuffing out opportunities left and right.
He's also super cool and calm under pressure; under Sarri, playing out from the back became a forte of his, often taking the ball deep in his own territory in the face of an opposing press and cutting through it. He played high-risk football and often came out on the right side.
The fact he signed a contract extension as recently as August, extending his stay in Naples to 2023, solidifies his chance of becoming the first €100 million centre-back. It's going to take a hefty, hefty sum to release a player of his quality from a contract that long.
When you factor in owner Aurelio De Laurentiis' propensity to extract big fees for his players—he got €90 million from Juventus for Gonzalo Higuain in 2016—Koulibaly's next move has all the makings of a groundbreaking transfer.
All fees via Transfermarkt.com
