Stock Up, Stock Down for CBB Programs Involved in FBI Scandal
We've only seen the tip of the iceberg regarding the fallout from the FBI's investigation into shoe companies funneling money to high school and college basketball players and their families, but how are things looking right now for the most prominent programs that were implicated?
Let's state up front that this is a college basketball article, not an FBI investigation article.
If you're beyond sick and tired of hearing about the FBI-shaped black cloud that has been hanging over the sport since September 2017 and just want to watch and analyze college basketball, you're in the right place. We won't be getting into the nitty-gritty of who was allegedly paid what to go where, nor will there be any speculating about the trials coming up in February and April.
Rather, we'll be taking a look at how much the programs were (or were not) affected, based on a combination of last year's performance, this year's potential and how their 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes compare to previous years.
Not every team mentioned in the investigation will be covered here. It'll just be the ones that were mentioned the most often (or loudest); they are listed in alphabetical order.
Arizona Wildcats
1 of 10
Last Season
Aside from Louisville—which seems to have been in a never-ending loop of scandals for the past few years—Arizona was the primary team drawing the ire of fans and analysts out for blood. But even though Deandre Ayton and Sean Miller were the most prominent (and most frequent) names mentioned in connection with the FBI investigation, the Wildcats had a solid year.
They never came close to living up to the preseason No. 3 ranking, but they swept the Pac-12 regular-season and conference-tournament titles and received a No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Sure, they immediately got boat-raced by Buffalo in the Big Dance, but the season never went off the rails like it easily could have.
This Season
Arizona lost all five of its leading scorers, leaving former UNC-Asheville transfer Dylan Smith as the top returning scorer at 4.3 points per game. A lot of bracketology experts expect the Wildcats to miss the tournament for just the third time since 1984.
If you want to see potential for success, though, it's not hard to find. Duke transfer Chase Jeter had a double-double in his Arizona debut. Sophomore Brandon Randolph and freshman Brandon Williams look like a solid backcourt tandem. And there are seven or eight other guys who could break out in a big way. Expectations are lower than usual, but there's a pulse here.
Recruiting
From 2011-17, you could just about pencil in Arizona for the best recruiting class not assembled by John Calipari or Mike Krzyzewski. Miller consistently signed multiple 5-star recruits and usually had a class ranked third or fourth in the nation.
Because of the FBI investigation, the Wildcats lost key 2018 commitments from Jahvon Quinerly and Shareef O'Neal, ending up with a weak class by their standards (22nd). But it appears to have been a temporary setback since Arizona has already signed two 5-star recruits in a 2019 class that currently ranks third-best in the country.
Verdict
Their stock is down, but there's a growing light at the end of the tunnel.
Auburn Tigers
2 of 10
Last Season
When Auburn suspended Danjel Purifoy and Austin Wiley indefinitely in early November—a suspension that stood for the entire year—it seemed like the Tigers were in trouble. The long-promised Bruce Pearl-led breakout season would have to wait yet another year without its top two returning frontcourt players, right?
Not even close. Auburn shared the SEC regular-season title and made the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2003. Were it not for Anfernee McLemore's broken leg late in the season, the Tigers would have been a serious threat to reach the Final Four. If the FBI investigation had any effect on this team, it brought them closer together as a better group.
This Season
Despite losing Mustapha Heron as a transfer to St. John's, expectations for Auburn are about as high as they have ever been. Purifoy isn't eligible to return until the 10th game of the season and Wiley is nursing an ankle injury, but both players will eventually return to form what should be a sensational eight-man rotation.
The only major question mark heading into the season was the health of McLemore after his recovery. He had 11 points, eight rebounds and three blocks in the season opener against South Alabama, so it's full steam ahead for the Tigers.
Recruiting
With so many returning pieces, Auburn didn't actually sign anyone in 2018. The Tigers merely added three walk-on freshmen.
But Pearl—who has not surprisingly recruited well since his arrival—is already putting together a rock-solid 2019 class. Isaac Okoro is the centerpiece of a group currently ranked ninth in the nation. He is one of three 4-star players and one of five top-250 recruits already committed to Auburn. Suffice it to say, seniors in high school don't seem to be worried about Auburn's involvement in this shoe company scandal.
Verdict
Their stock is up and still rising.
Kansas Jayhawks
3 of 10
Last Season
It was business as usual for Kansas. As was the case with Cheick Diallo, Cliff Alexander and Josh Selby, a key freshman (this time Silvio De Sousa) battled eligibility issues, but it didn't stop the Jayhawks from winning the Big 12 for the 14th consecutive year, nor from reaching the Final Four.
This Season
The Jayhawks were the preseason favorite to win the national championship, and they're going to be even tougher to beat than expected if Quentin Grimes and Devon Dotson keep balling out like they did in the Champions Classic win over Michigan State last Tuesday.
Though Duke is looking like the new favorite to win it all, Kansas is still near the top of that list. De Sousa is being held out of games indefinitely because of the FBI investigation, but the Jayhawks will be right there if he's the only casualty on their roster.
Recruiting
Kansas had the fifth-best recruiting class this year, but next year's class isn't anything special yet. With just a pair of 4-star guys outside the top 100, Kansas' 2019 crop of recruits is ranked 49th. That would be (by far) the Jayhawks' worst national rank in recruiting since 2010.
They should end up with Chandler Lawson, since older brothers Dedric and K.J. are on the roster. However, he hasn't committed yet. Kansas is also the heavy favorite to sign 5-star big man Matthew Hurt. His decision may ultimately be the biggest indicator of whether Kansas is going to emerge from this scandal without any scratches.
Verdict
Their stock slightly up from its usual sky-high spot, but keep an eye on that 2019 class.
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Louisville Cardinals
4 of 10
Last Season
Aside from getting obliterated in the annual matchup with Kentucky, Louisville started out surprisingly well for a team that fired its Hall of Fame coach in late September. Under David Padgett's leadership, the Cardinals began the year 15-4 and were a No. 6 seed in my mid-January projected bracket.
Things went south in a hurry, though. Louisville lost nine of its final 14 games, missed the Big Dance and told Padgett to hit the bricks, replacing him with former Xavier head coach Chris Mack.
This Season
Deng Adel and Ray Spalding both declared for the NBA draft after leading the Cardinals in scoring. Factor in Quentin Snider and Anas Mahmoud graduating and Louisville is left with V.J. King and not a whole lot else.
It looks like Connecticut transfer Steven Enoch may have been a great pickup, as he had 15 points, eight rebounds and two blocks in the season opener. But even with his impressive debut, the Cards were anything but dominant against Nicholls State. This is a bubble team at best.
Recruiting
Louisville didn't sign a single scholarship freshman this year, instead opting to try to plug the gaps on the roster with transfers. But Mack has wasted no time in working on the 2019 class. Louisville doesn't have any 5-star guys, but it already has commitments from five top-100 recruits.
They currently have the fourth-best class for next year. That's unlikely to hold true after the 10 remaining unsigned 5-star guys make their decisions. If it does, though, it would be Louisville's highest-ranked class since placing third in 2011.
Verdict
Its stock is probably as low as it has been since going 12-19 in 2000-01, but there is hope for the not-too-distant future.
LSU Tigers
5 of 10
Last Season
Will Wade's LSU coaching debut was a bit of a mixed bag. The Tigers had some impressive wins, including a neutral-court victory over the eventual runner-up for the national championship (Michigan). But they also lost 15 games, more than a couple of which were in downright embarrassing fashion.
As far as recent history goes, though, it was a solid year for LSU. Since 2009-10, the program's highest end-of-season ranking on KenPom.com was 49th in 2014-15. The Tigers had finished outside of the top 100 in four of the previous eight years, including going 10-21 in the year before Wade's arrival. Finishing in 66th place with a winning record (18-15) was a nice start.
This Season
Last year was just practice for Wade to get his bearings in a major conference after coaching VCU in the Atlantic 10. This is the year the LSU revival begins. With Tremont Waters returning for a sophomore season alongside an uber-talented freshman class, the sky is the limit.
LSU hasn't been seeded better than No. 4 in the NCAA tournament since 1981. That could change this March.
Recruiting
Led by Naz Reid and Emmitt Williams, LSU had the nation's fourth-best 2018 recruiting class. Even when the Tigers signed both Ben Simmons and Antonio Blakeney in 2015, they only ranked 10th. The top five is uncharted territory over the past 15 years, and excitement surrounding this team is about as high as it has been since Shaquille O'Neal was there in the early '90s.
Wade doesn't have much of anything yet in next year's class, but the 247Sports experts consider him the heavy favorite to sign top-75 recruit Lester Quinones as well as the slight favorite for top-30 recruit CJ Walker. As long as one of those two "geaux" with the Tigers, they'll be in good shape for years to come.
Verdict
Their stock is through the roof.
Miami Hurricanes
6 of 10
Last Season
It was par for the course at Miami. Jim Larranaga led the Hurricanes to at least 21 wins and at least 10 in the ACC for the fifth time in six seasons. By the end of their 10-0 start, they had climbed all the way to No. 6 in the AP poll. But they were only occasionally ranked in the top 25 over the second half of the season.
The Hurricanes weren't quite as good as the preseason expectations. However, they made the NCAA tournament with room to spare and would have been a bigger threat to make a deep run if they hadn't lost Bruce Brown to injury in late January.
This Season
Despite losing Brown, Lonnie Walker and Ja'Quan Newton, Miami was in the Nos. 20-27 range in the preseason KenPom rankings for a fourth consecutive season. But with news breaking on Friday that stud big man Dewan Hernandez (formerly Huell) is being held out while the school looks into his recruitment and eligibility, it's hard to imagine they'll live up to that ranking.
The possible saving grace may be Florida Gulf Coast grad transfer Zach Johnson. He's a high-volume scorer who plays excellent on-ball defense and has averaged at least three assists per game in each of the last three seasons. He should pair nicely with Chris Lykes and Dejan Vasiljevic in this backcourt.
Recruiting
Like both Auburn and Louisville earlier on this list, Miami did not sign a scholarship freshman in the 2018 class. It wasn't for lack of trying, though. Per 247Sports, the 'Canes extended offers to 39 players. Many of those were pipe dreams, but what does it say that a 3-star recruit from Miami (Emmanuel Dowuona) chose Purdue over the Hurricanes?
Larranaga hasn't done much yet in next year's class either, but he does have one gigantic target in No. 2 overall recruit Vernon Carey. If Miami can win that recruiting battle against Mike Krzyzewski, John Calipari, Tom Izzo and Roy Williams, it would be an indescribably huge boost for the program.
Verdict
Their stock is down, and Larranaga better beef up that 2019 class if Miami expects to remain an annual factor in the ACC.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
7 of 10
Last Season
NC State's first season with Kevin Keatts as the head coach was a significant improvement upon its final two under Mark Gottfried. Despite losing Dennis Smith Jr., Maverick Rowan and Terry Henderson, the Wolfpack went from a 15-17 mess to a 21-12 NCAA tournament squad. Grad transfers Al Freeman and Sam Hunt were crucial additions, and Omer Yurtseven made a huge sophomore-year leap.
This Season
Freeman, Hunt and Yurtseven are all gone, leaving NC State to rely on a new batch of transfers.
Of the eight players who scored at least five points in the Wolfpack's season opener, only Markell Johnson began his college career in Raleigh—and Torin Dorn was the only other one who had previously played a game for the school.
And yet, this should be a top-half-of-the-ACC team, because C.J. Bryce, Devon Daniels, DJ Funderburk and Wyatt Walker all transferred in with a ton of potential. If all that talent jells together, NC State could be headed for a No. 7 seed or better for the first time since 2004.
Recruiting
From 2012-16, NC State had a top-20 recruiting class in four out of five years, culminating in the fifth-ranked 2016 class—the one with Smith that landed the Wolfpack in this FBI saga.
Since then, though, their pull on high school seniors has been nothing special. This year's class ranked 39th nationally and did not contain a top-100 recruit. And though they have a top-30 recruit committed for next year, Jalen Lecque doesn't seem that committed to playing college ball. The fifth-year senior told ESPN.com's Jonathan Givony that he is considering entering the 2019 NBA draft. So, should we count that as a good recruiting pickup or not?
Verdict
Their stock is holding steady, but the future is more than a little cloudy.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
8 of 10
Last Season
The Cowboys swept Kansas during the regular season and picked up a pair of big wins over West Virginia and Texas Tech. But a 19-14 record against a brutal schedule wasn't quite enough for a return trip to the NCAA tournament.
Still, it wasn't a bad year for the Cowboys by any means—especially considering they had to replace Jawun Evans, Phil Forte and Leyton Hammonds.
This Season
To say Oklahoma State looks different this year would be an understatement. The Cowboys only have three returning players who scored more than two points last season, and they lost their three leading scorers.
The leader of the team should be Miami (Ohio) transfer Michael Weathers, but only if he can regain the trust of his teammates and coaches after pleading guilty to misdemeanor theft in September. The program suspended him for two months following the incident, but Weathers will likely return to the court soon. But with or without him, this might be the worst team in the Big 12.
Weathers did not play in the season opener against Charlotte, which contributed to a 66-64 loss—the program's most embarrassing one of the 2010s.
Recruiting
Oklahoma State had the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation in 2005—although the top two players in that class (Gerald Green and Keith Brumbaugh) never played a college game, so does that actually count? Since then, however, the Cowboys haven't had a class ranked higher than 24th. That includes coming nowhere close to 24th in 2018.
That could be changing next year. The Cowboys currently have the 12th-best class, anchored by a trio of 4-star recruits.
Verdict
Their stock is down, but the future is bright.
South Carolina Gamecocks
9 of 10
Last Season
If you thought South Carolina's run to the 2017 Final Four was a turning point for the program, last year was proof that there's still a lot of work to be done here.
With neither Sindarius Thornwell nor PJ Dozier to lead the way, the Gamecocks went 17-16. Their game plan of disrupting the opposing team's rhythm with physical defense and a lot of free-throw stoppages worked occasionally, but there wasn't enough talent to win with any consistency.
This Season
SC was a borderline NCAA tournament candidate in the preseason, but early returns suggest this team might be terrible. The Gamecocks shot 0-of-18 from three-point range in the opener against USC Upstate, and they were dreadful in a home loss to Stony Brook on Friday.
The good news is the best-looking players in those games were freshmen AJ Lawson and Keyshawn Bryant, so there might be something to build around for years to come. But it might be a long year.
Recruiting
It's hard to keep pace in the SEC when you don't recruit well, and South Carolina does not. The Gamecocks have had three consecutive classes ranked outside the top 50, and they are currently ranked No. 67 for 2019.
Frank Martin is no stranger to mediocre recruiting classes. He finds tough-nosed guys who fit his system, and they aren't often top-100 prospects. But that lack of talent is catching up with South Carolina as the SEC improves as a whole.
Verdict:
Their stock is down and getting worse.
USC Trojans
10 of 10
Last Season
USC's 2017-18 season wasn't much different from its previous two. Though the Trojans didn't reach the NCAA tournament last year, they finished No. 51 in the KenPom rankings—nearly identical to finishing 53rd in 2016-17 and 49th the year before that.
But it was supposed to be different. The Trojans were ranked No. 10 in the preseason AP poll before becoming the ultimate "what could have been?" team.
They played the entire season without De'Anthony Melton because of the FBI situation. He was arguably USC's most valuable player as a freshman and was poised for a monster sophomore year before the decision was made to suspend him indefinitely. They failed to live up to the hype without Melton, who withdrew from school and was drafted in the second round.
This Season
That depends on whether or not Bennie Boatwright can get and stay healthy for a change. The senior stretch 4 missed 30 games over the past two seasons, and he has already missed USC's first two games due to a knee injury. Until he returns, USC's frontcourt consists of Nick Rakocevic and not much else.
But this could be an elite three-point shooting team when Boatwright returns, which should be enough to finish top five in the Pac-12 this year.
Recruiting
While most of these teams aren't recruiting as well as they used to, USC is thriving on that front. Andy Enfield put together the 18th-best 2018 class, led by 5-star shooting guard Kevin Porter Jr. And the Trojans currently have the No. 1 class for next year, consisting of two 5-star and three 4-star recruits.
They won't finish at No. 1 unless they add at least one more stud, but they will easily finish in the top 10 as long as no one decommits. It will be the program's first top-10 class since landing O.J. Mayo and Davon Jefferson back in 2007.
Verdict
Their stock is holding steady but is positioned to rise considerably.
All recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports. Advanced stats from KenPom.com and Sports Reference.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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