Early 2018-19 MLB Free-Agency Contract Predictions for Each Top Star
Anticipation has been building for the 2018-19 MLB free-agent class for years, thanks in large part to a pair of young superstars in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
While those two could be headed for record paydays, they're by no means the only impact players set to cash in this offseason.
Patrick Corbin headlines a starting pitching market that also includes Dallas Keuchel, Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Clayton Kershaw could also join that group, though we won't count him among the upcoming free agents unless and until he exercises his opt-out clause.
Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson, A.J. Pollock, Yasmani Grandal and Nelson Cruz are among the top bats available behind Harper and Machado, while there's plenty of bullpen talent up for grabs as well, led by Craig Kimbrel, Zach Britton and Andrew Miller.
We took a crack at predicting the 10 biggest contracts that will be handed out based on total money, not annual salary.
SP J.A. Happ
1 of 10
DOB: Oct. 19, 1982 (36 years old)
2018 Standard: 17-6, 3.65 ERA, 117 ERA+, 1.13 WHIP, 51 BB, 193 K, 177.2 IP
2018 WAR: 3.3
Eligible for Qualifying Offer?: No
Outlook
The last time J.A. Happ hit the open market, he essentially turned two standout months with the Pittsburgh Pirates into a three-year, $36 million payday.
After going 47-21 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP while averaging 173.0 innings over the life of that contract, he reached free agency as more of a known commodity this time around.
However, he's also now 36 years old.
The three-year, $48 million deal Rich Hill signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to his own age-37 season is an obvious comp. Hill pitched at a much higher level in his contract year, though, going 12-5 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 20 starts.
Durability and consistency will be enough for Happ to land another three-year guarantee, and the overall money should fall somewhere between his last contract and that Hill deal.
Contract Prediction: Three years, $39 million
3B Josh Donaldson
2 of 10
DOB: Dec. 8, 1985 (32 years old)
2018 Standard: 52 G, 119 OPS+, .246/.352/.449, 22 XBH (8 HR), 23 RBI, 30 R
2018 WAR: 1.2
Eligible for Qualifying Offer?: No
Outlook
Josh Donaldson looked like a safe bet for an annual salary north of $20 million and an overall payday north of $100 million when the 2018 season began.
Shoulder inflammation and a nagging calf injury limited him to 52 games, however, and lingering injury questions will take a significant bite out of his earning potential.
Because of that, a short-term deal that would allow him to re-enter the free-agent market if he turns in a bounce-back season could be his preferred route. A two-year pact with a $20 million annual salary and an opt-out after the first year would give Donaldson the flexibility to still net a major deal next offseason.
Todd Frazier came with less risk but also less upside, and he signed a two-year deal last offseason. Mike Moustakas had to settle for a one-year deal and a mutual option.
Despite Donaldson's MVP track record, the injury questions are enough to make those two reasonable comps, at least in terms of the length of the deal.
Contract Prediction: Two years, $40 million (opt-out after one year)
RF Andrew McCutchen
3 of 10
DOB: Oct. 10, 1986 (32 years old)
2018 Standard: 155 G, 118 OPS+, .255/.368/.424, 53 XBH (20 HR), 65 RBI, 83 R
2018 WAR: 2.8
Eligible for Qualifying Offer?: No
Outlook
While his days as a center fielder are over, Andrew McCutchen still has plenty to offer a contender.
He finished the season on a high note with the New York Yankees, posting a 141 OPS+ and a .421 on-base percentage in 114 plate appearances after an Aug. 31 trade.
His .368 on-base percentage overall ranked 20th among all qualified hitters, and he hit at least 20 home runs for the eighth straight season.
He also graded out as an above-average defender in right field (two defensive runs saved) after posting brutal metrics in center field during his final two seasons with the Pirates.
Lorenzo Cain got a five-year, $80 million deal from the Milwaukee Brewers last offseason.
While McCutchen might not get more than three years, that $16 million annual value seems like a reasonable comparison.
Contract Prediction: Three years, $48 million
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RP Craig Kimbrel
4 of 10
DOB: May 28, 1988 (30 years old)
2018 Standard: 63 G, 42/47 SV, 2.74 ERA, 160 ERA+, 0.99 WHIP, 13.9 K/9
2018 WAR: 2.3
Eligible for Qualifying Offer?: Yes
Outlook
The closer market has exploded in recent seasons.
Aroldis Chapman (five years, $86 million) set the record for the largest overall contract for a reliever prior to the 2017 season, while Wade Davis (three years, $52 million) set a new standard for the largest annual value for a reliever last offseason.
Craig Kimbrel should benefit as the top closer on this year's market.
He is the active leader with 333 saves and has punched out an excellent 14.7 batters per nine innings over the course of his nine-year career.
That said, his shaky performance during the postseason (10.2 IP, 9 H, 8 BB, 7 ER) and a deep crop of alternatives might be enough to limit him to three years.
If that's the case, he'll shoot for eclipsing the deal Davis signed.
Contract Prediction: Three years, $54 million
SP Nathan Eovaldi
5 of 10
DOB: Feb. 13, 1990 (28 years old)
2018 Standard: 6-7, 3.81 ERA, 112 ERA+, 1.13 WHIP, 20 BB, 101 K, 111.0 IP
2018 WAR: 1.5
Eligible for Qualifying Offer?: No
Outlook
No free agent did more to boost his stock this season than Nathan Eovaldi after he missed 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
After a strong finish to the regular season, he posted a 1.61 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 22.1 postseason innings spanning two starts and four relief appearances, leading one rival executive to offer up the following glowing review to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:
"He's shown, first of all, that he's healthy. He's shown he can pitch on a big stage. He's shown that he's grown as a pitcher where he not only relies on that 97-100-miles-per-hour fastball, but now he has a cutter that's proven so effective for him and allowed him to pitch deep into games. And, he's had two Tommy John surgeries, survived them and is flourishing."
As Cafardo noted, the four-year, $57 million deal Alex Cobb signed last offseason looks like a solid comparison. He too showed well in his return from Tommy John surgery before hitting the open market.
There's a lack of quality starting pitching options, so look for Eovaldi to best that deal.
Contract Prediction: Four years, $60 million
LF Michael Brantley
6 of 10
DOB: May 15, 1987 (31 years old)
2018 Standard: 143 G, 123 OPS+, .309/.364/.468, 55 XBH (17 HR), 76 RBI, 89 R
2018 WAR: 3.6
Eligible for Qualifying Offer?: Yes
Outlook
Michael Brantley spent most of the 2016 season and a good chunk of 2017 watching from the dugout as he dealt with a nagging shoulder injury and then an ankle issue.
During that time, he embraced the role of veteran mentor.
"I really looked at myself as a coach," Brantley told Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. "I was talking to guys about at-bats. I was talking to them about their approach with certain pitchers. If anyone had a question of me, I made sure I was in the dugout cheering them on and made sure they knew I was there. I accepted the role, even though I didn't want to."
While the injury questions lingered, he suited up for 143 games in 2018, and that should be enough for him to cash in as the top outfielder on the market not named Harper.
A high contact rate, strong on-base skills and a nice mix of power and speed would make him an excellent fit in almost any lineup. And for a young team like the Atlanta Braves or Oakland Athletics, his clubhouse presence and coaching mentality only add to his value.
The five-year, $80 million deal Cain signed again looks like a useful comparison, though Brantley's injury history might limit him to four years.
Contract Prediction: Four years, $64 million
SP Dallas Keuchel
7 of 10
DOB: Jan. 1, 1988 (30 years old)
2018 Standard: 12-11, 3.74 ERA, 108 ERA+, 1.31 WHIP, 58 BB, 153 K, 204.2 IP
2018 WAR: 2.6
Eligible for Qualifying Offer?: Yes
Outlook
Dallas Keuchel was at the top of his game in 2015 when he went 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 216 strikeouts in 232 innings to win the American League Cy Young Award and finish fifth in AL MVP voting.
He hasn't pitched at that level in the three years since, but he has been a reliable middle-of-the-rotation option on a stacked Houston Astros staff.
Keuchel relies more on pinpoint control and a high ground-ball rate than swing-and-miss stuff, so he's a safer bet than most to continue pitching at a high level on this side of his 30th birthday.
The lefty also boasts a strong postseason track record with a 3.31 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 51.2 career playoff innings.
Rick Porcello signed a four-year, $82.5 million extension prior to his age-27 season with the Boston Red Sox, and that could be a reasonable starting point in negotiations.
A fifth year is not out of the question in a thin market, but a four-year deal and a hefty raise from Keuchel's $13.2 million salary in 2018 to north of $20 million annually seems reasonable.
Contract Prediction: Four years, $84 million
SP Patrick Corbin
8 of 10
DOB: July 19, 1989 (29 years old)
2018 Standard: 11-7, 3.15 ERA, 137 ERA+, 1.05 WHIP, 48 BB, 246 K, 200.0 IP
2018 WAR: 4.6
Eligible for Qualifying Offer?: Yes
Outlook
Patrick Corbin picked the perfect time for a breakout season.
A major uptick in his strikeout rate (8.4 to 11.1 K/9) helped him finish third in the National League and fifth overall with a career-high 246 strikeouts. An improved slider was a big reason for his newfound success:
- 2017: 37.4% Usage, .184 BAA, .135 ISO, 21.8% Whiff
- 2018: 41.5% Usage, .148 BAA, .098 ISO, 30.2% Whiff
The left-hander also won't turn 30 until after the All-Star Game, which further adds to his earning power.
So what's he worth as the top starter on the market, assuming Kershaw stays put?
Cafardo wrote: "Corbin is expected to draw a lot of interest from the Yankees, Dodgers, Giants and Braves. The deal likely could be at least five years in the $20 million-$25 million range."
Contract Prediction: Five years, $110 million
RF Bryce Harper
9 of 10
DOB: Oct. 16, 1992 (26 years old)
2018 Standard: 159 G, 133 OPS+, .249/.393/.496, 68 XBH (34 HR), 100 RBI, 103 R
2018 WAR: 1.3
Eligible for Qualifying Offer?: Yes
Outlook
Harper is going to get paid.
"The bidding for him in free agency will start at 10 years and $350 million," Bruce Levine of 670 The Score wrote.
While he already has seven seasons and 27.4 WAR to his credit, he's still just 26 years old, meaning anyone paying a premium for him this winter will be locking in his prime years.
Even in a down year by his standards, Harper posted a 133 OPS+ and led the majors in walks (130) on his way to an excellent .393 on-base percentage.
At the same time, middling defensive metrics and a plunge in his batting average from .319 to .249 led to a less-than-stellar 1.3 WAR in his contract year.
That won't stop him from cashing in, but it could prevent him from getting the 10-year deal he's reportedly seeking.
Instead, a shorter deal with a slightly higher annual salary and an opt-out could be just as appealing.
Contract Prediction: Six years, $216 million (opt-out after three years)
SS/3B Manny Machado
10 of 10
DOB: July 6, 1992 (26 years old)
2018 Standard: 162 G, 146 OPS+, .297/.367/.538, 75 XBH (37 HR), 107 RBI, 84 R
2018 WAR: 5.7
Eligible for Qualifying Offer?: No
Outlook
The best we've seen of Harper is better than the best we've seen of Machado.
There's something to be said for consistency, though, especially when it comes to a long-term, potentially record-breaking deal.
Here's a look at the two players' WAR over the past six seasons:
- 2012: Harper (5.2), Machado (1.6)
- 2013: Harper (3.7), Machado (6.7)
- 2014: Harper (1.1), Machado (2.3)
- 2015: Harper (10.0), Machado (7.1)
- 2016: Harper (1.5), Machado (6.9)
- 2017: Harper (4.7), Machado (3.4)
- 2018: Harper (1.3), Machado (5.7)
- Average: Harper (3.9), Machado (4.8)
Machado provides more value defensively, he's working on four straight seasons with at least 30 home runs, and he's less than four months older than Harper.
We're predicting Machado will get a longer, bigger deal but a slightly lower annual salary than Harper.
Contract Prediction: Eight years, $280 million (opt-out after five years)
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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