Week 8 NFL Picks: Tips for Vegas Odds and Over/Under Score Predictions

While the overall outlook doesn't seem so simple, the NFL's slate of Week 8 odds started simple enough. 

As it should have on Thursday Night Football with the Miami Dolphins visiting the Houston Texans. The hosts entered favored by as many as seven points and started cruising early against the Brock Osweiler-led visitors, getting five touchdowns from Deshaun Watson in the 42-23 win. 

Now for the rest of the week. 

With a handful of massive lines and the rest small—some tough divisional matchups and some weird encounters that fans don't see too often—oddsmakers seem to have an edge over would-be bettors who don't put in the proper time to prepare. Here's an assist in the form of a full look at the schedule. 

Week 8 NFL Odds

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Jacksonville | O/U 41.5

Baltimore (-2.5) at Carolina | O/U 43

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-8) | O/U 51

Denver at Kansas City (-10)  | O/U 55

N.Y. Jets at Chicago (-8) | O/U 46

Seattle at Detroit (-3) | O/U 49.5

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-4) | O/U 54

Washington (-1.5) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 43.5

Indianapolis (-3) at Oakland | O/U 50

Green Bay at L.A. Rams (-8.5) | O/U 56.5

San Francisco (-1.5) at Arizona | O/U 43

New Orleans (-1.5) at Minnesota | O/U 53

New England (-14) at Buffalo | O/U 44.5

Denver at Kansas City (-10)

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Feeling a sense of deja vu? 

The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos already met in Week 4 on a Monday game, where the Chiefs predictably came away with a 27-23 victory while Patrick Mahomes threw for a score and his running game piled on 142 yards and two touchdowns on a 5.5 per-carry average. 

Don't expect much to change in the rematch—except the margin of victory. 

All the Chiefs have done since is continue matching the hype, blowing away would-be contenders Jacksonville and Cincinnati 30-14 and 45-10, respectively. The only loss was a three-point disappointment in Foxborough against New England and no, the blame doesn't go on Mahomes and his 22 touchdowns against just five interceptions. 

One can see where this is going. Denver hasn't done much but disappoint since the Monday night loss. The Broncos are now 3-4 and lost two more games after meeting the Chiefs, giving them four losses in a row before a bounce-back game against a laughably bad Arizona squad. 

For Denver, the Case Keenum experience has been a bust, and he's sitting on eight touchdowns and nine interceptions, with the coaching staff unable to replicate the one-hit wonder season he had in Minnesota a year ago. It's to the point where star wideout Demaryius Thomas has popped up in trade rumors. 

This rematch takes place in Kansas City, so a double-digit spread shouldn't be too intimidating for bettors. Denver can't score and Mahomes and Andy Reid have even more film to exploit. 

Prediction: Chiefs 40, Broncos 24

Washington (-1.5) at N.Y. Giants

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

This was easy to see coming. 

For whatever reason, the New York Giants were favored over the Washington Redskins on the opening lines. Clearly, those lines needed adjustment, but there remains plenty to exploit here. 

Why on Earth the Giants were favored over anyone is hard to say. They are 1-6 and have one of the least effective quarterbacks in the league thanks to Eli Manning, who has completed 69 percent of his passes but thrown for a shrug-worthy seven touchdowns and four interceptions. 

These Giants have admitted the mistake to attempt contention and kick-started a rebuild before the deadline, trading away corner Eli Apple and defensive tackle Damon Harrison. 

The Redskins continue to head in the opposite direction, sitting on a 4-2 mark and first in the NFC East after winning brutal conference showdowns with Carolina and Dallas in consecutive weeks. While they have a loss to New Orleans, they also whipped Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. 

As everyone predicted (that's sarcasm), it is 33-year-old Adrian Peterson and his 438 yards and three scores making the Redskins tick on the offensive side of the ball: 

But overall, it's all about the Redskins defense. Multiple first-round picks on defensive linemen in recent years with Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen have created a defensive-minded team that has bullied opponents into submission and held star running backs like David Johnson, Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott under 50 rushing yards. 

This is terrible news for a Giants team hoping rookie back Saquon Barkley can carry the load and help play spoiler in the NFC East. But given the direction of the team and how well the Redskins are built for NFC East play, bettors should expect nothing less than Washington sending another message to the rest of the league. 

Prediction: Redskins 27, Giants 20

Indianapolis (-3) at Oakland

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

That's one way to sap the life out of a team. 

Jon Gruden is in Oakland, and both Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper are not, the writing on the wall clearly presenting a long-term rebuild. Marshawn Lynch is on injured reserve, and whether Derek Carr was crying on the field is actually a topic of discussion. 

Based on that paragraph, one shouldn't be surprised to find out the Raiders are 1-5 with the only win an overtime escape of the Cleveland Browns. Carr has been average, with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions and the defense is ranked 29th, allowing 29.3 points per game. 

It's bad enough in Oakland that the 2-5 Colts seem like an elite team by comparison. This is mostly due to a resurgent Andrew Luck, who continues to look better by the week in terms of arm strength and confidence, building upon a solid foundation of 20 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. 

Not only that, Luck finally seems to have a steady ground game behind him that averages 4.5 yards per carry, and his defense has 21 sacks. To top it all off, the Colts are the healthiest they have been all season: 

This is a game a lot of fans won't bother even checking the score on, yet the line here is exploitable. Indianapolis just cruised against a bad Buffalo team in 37-5 fashion while Oakland has lost its last two by double digits, the latter 27-3 at home. 

On the road or not, Luck should breeze to one of the biggest performances of his season. 

Prediction: Colts 28, Raiders 10

Odds via OddsShark.