Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros: ALCS Game 5 Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The World Series champion Houston Astros hope to stave off elimination and send the American League Championship Series back to Boston on Thursday, when they host the Red Sox as home favorites in Game 5 of the set.

The Astros have lost the first two games of this series at Minute Maid Park, where they went 46-35 during the regular season. They lost nine straight at home between July 15 and August 14.

MLB betting line: The Astros opened as -152 favorites (wager $152 to win $100); the total is at 7.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 5.4-2.8, Astros. MLB picks on every game.

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Why the Red Sox Can Pay on the MLB Lines

Boston has been phenomenal away from home this year, going 55-30, including the postseason. The Red Sox are a perfect 4-0 on the road in the playoffs, and their offense has been the difference no matter who they have sent to the mound as their starting pitcher.

The Red Sox are averaging nine runs per game in those four outings, scoring eight in both Games 3 and 4 at Houston. In Wednesday's 8-6 victory, Boston outfielder Andrew Benintendi saved the game with a spectacular bases-loaded catch even though closer Craig Kimbrel technically earned it despite allowing one run and two hits in two innings.

Why the Astros Can Pay on the MLB Lines

The Astros will not have expected to be in this situation, down 3-1 in the ALCS at home, but they could not have a better pitcher than ace Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) in Game 5. The 35-year-old has won each of his first two starts in the postseason, including Game 1 at Fenway Park after allowing two runs and two hits in six innings with four walks and six strikeouts.

Verlander also limited the Red Sox to a .143 batting average in one start during the regular season, walking away with a no-decision following six innings of work in an eventual 5-4 home loss back on June 2.

Smart Betting Pick

Houston obviously has a serious problem in needing three consecutive wins to advance to the World Series for the second year in a row, but Verlander will not let the team's season end at home.

Instead, expect Verlander and the Astros to play hard with the heart of champions and put pressure on their opponent to win the series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have not won four straight games in more than a month, and they will not pull off that feat again here. Take Houston.

MLB betting trends

The total has gone over in 11 of Boston's past 13 games.

The total has gone over in seven of Boston's past nine games on the road.

Houston is 12-5 in its past 17 games.

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.