Fantasy Football Week 7: Confident Calls on Toughest Lineup Decisions

Believe it or not, we're nearing the midpoint of the 2018 NFL season. It's a pivotal time for teams around the league, and it's a critical juncture for fantasy owners. 

If you are in a deeper league, you may start the playoffs in a little more than a month. There's a big opportunity in Week 7 to solidify your position as a playoff team or to get back in the mix if you suffered a poor start.

You won't be able to rely solely on can't-miss matchups, though, as four teams—the Pittsburgh Steelers, Oakland Raiders, Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks—are on bye. Taking risks on tough matchups will be part of the game plan this week. We're to help with some of those matchups by analyzing factors like opponent, early-season performances and player health.

We'll be making our choices based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring formats. All rankings and fantasy statistics via FantasyPros.

QB Andrew Luck vs. Buffalo Bills

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills have been an up-and-down team this season, but their defense has looked strong the past few weeks and ranks third overall (311.7 yards per game allowed) and sixth against the pass (219.2).

This makes for a daunting challenge for Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, even at home. The 1-5 Colts aren't very good, and they haven't surrounded Luck with a lot of receiving talent this season.

Luck has been a fighter, though. He's passed for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in each of the last three games. He could also get top wideout T.Y. Hilton back after Hilton missed the last two weeks with a hamstring issue.

The receiver returned to practice on a limited basis Wednesday, according to ESPN's Mike Wells.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 308 yards passing, 28 yards rushing, three TDs, one INT

QB Brock Osweiler vs. Detroit Lions

Mark Brown/Getty Images

Brock Osweiler made his triumphant return to the NFL's starting ranks last week and helped lead the Miami Dolphins to a thrilling overtime victory in place of Ryan Tannehill. He passed for 380 yards and three touchdowns (with two picks) against a very good Chicago Bears defense, which is impressive.

Osweiler is set to start again this week, and with Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson all on bye, you may be tempted to test him as a streamer. Against the Detroit Lions, though, that might not be such a great idea.

Detroit is just 2-3 and has had its share of rough outings. However, the defense has been solid recently, especially against the pass. The Lions rank seventh in pass defense (222.0 yards per game allowed) and have logged 17 sacks in just five games.

Osweiler took the Bears by surprise. He won't do the same to Detroit.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 235 yards passing, one TD, two INTs

RB Kenyan Drake vs. Detroit Lions

Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

While we expect Osweiler to be a bit of a miss in Week 7, teammate Kenyan Drake could be in store for a big performance. He had a decent game last week (four receptions, 78 combined yards), but he also had a critical fumble in overtime that nearly cost his team a win.

Drake got a chance at redemption when Chicago missed a field goal. He was able to help get Miami into position for the game-winning kick.

He'll find more redemption in Week 7 against a Lions team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Drake will split backfield time with ageless wonder Frank Gore, but he should still be a guy the Miami offense leans on in Osweiler's second start of 2018.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 65 yards rushing, five receptions, 38 yards receiving, one TD

RB Isaiah Crowell vs. Minnesota Vikings

Al Pereira/Getty Images

New York Jets running back Isaiah Crowell has been tough to figure out for fantasy owners. He had zero rushing yards and just one reception in Week 4 but then went off for 219 yards rushing the following week. He fell back to earth with 40 rushing yards and two receptions last week against the Colts.

Will we see good Crowell return in Week 7? We don't believe so.

Crowell and the Jets will be going against a Minnesota Vikings team that has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Teams have averaged a mere 3.9 yards per carry against Minnesota.

Additionally, Crowell has been dealing with an ankle injury. He did not practice Wednesday with a foot ailment, according to Blaine Blontz of FantasyPros.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 45 yards rushing, one reception, 10 receiving yards

RB Kerryon Johnson vs. Miami Dolphins

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Rookie running back Kerryon Johnson finally gave the Lions a 100-yard rusher back in Week 3, but he's had just 125 yards rushing and a touchdown in two games since. Part of the issue is that Johnson, despite being supremely talented, finds himself sharing touches with LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick in the backfield.

"I think we have a lot of really good running backs, and I think we try to use them appropriately," head coach Matt Patricia told reporters.

This makes Johnson a bit of a question mark for fantasy owners, who likely don't believe Patricia is using him appropriately at all.

Well, there should be little question about Johnson against the Dolphins, as he should have another strong outing.

Miami ranks just 21st against the run (118.2 yards per game allowed) and has surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Johnson might even hit that 100-yard mark again.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 92 yards rushing, two receptions, 18 yards receiving, one TD

RB Dion Lewis vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Mark Brown/Getty Images

Tennessee Titans running back Dion Lewis has been another up-and-down fantasy option this season. He's usually good for PPR reasons—and sometimes great, like his nine-catch outing against the Philadelphia Eagles. However, he's coming off a poor performance (nine rushing yards, two receptions) and facing a tough Week 7 matchup.

Lewis and the Titans will play a stout Los Angeles Chargers defense in London this week. While the Chargers rank a so-so 11th against the run (96.8 yards per game allowed), they have stiffened in recent weeks.

Marshawn Lynch averaged just 3.4 yards per carry against L.A. two weeks ago. Carlos Hyde averaged a full yard less (2.4) last week.

As has been the case all season, Lewis will split time with Derrick Henry in the backfield. He may snag a handful of receptions, but don't expect Lewis to run wild against the Chargers.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 18 yards rushing, three receptions, 28 receiving yards

WR Chris Godwin vs. Cleveland Browns

Brian Blanco/Getty Images

Chris Godwin has been a forgotten man in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense this season. He has just 249 yards in five games, though he's scored four times. Still, he could be a solid streamer this week at home against the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns defense has had some terrific performances, but turnovers have powered those outings. Cleveland has not been great at limiting opposing offenses in yardage.

The Browns rank 28th in total defense (406.5 yards per game allowed) and 20th against the pass (268.3). The last time they were on the road, they gave up 45 points to the Oakland Raiders.

Expect Cleveland defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to focus on slowing DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans in the passing game. This should open opportunities for Godwin and make him a viable WR3 or flex starter.

Verdict: Start

Projection: five receptions, 78 yards receiving, one TD

WR Tre'Quan Smith vs. Baltimore Ravens

Bill Feig/Associated Press

New Orleans Saints rookie receiver Tre'Quan Smith was part of a historic achievement two weeks ago, as he caught the throw that made Drew Brees the NFL's all-time passing leader.

Smith racked up 111 receiving yards and two touchdowns in that game, and he is emerging as a significant piece of New Orleans' attack.

Still, this isn't a great week to lean on Smith in fantasy. He'll be on the road and facing a Baltimore Ravens defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. That defense just sacked Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota 11 times and did so on the road.

Oh, and the Ravens are the only team Brees has never beaten. That could change in Week 7, but be wary of Smith.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: three receptions, 47 yards

TE David Njoku vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jason Miller/Getty Images

Browns rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield continues to watch his wide receivers drop passes, and he'll have to start relying on tight end David Njoku more. He did so last week against the Chargers, and the two connected seven times for 55 yards and a touchdown.

Expect this budding partnership to continue in Week 7, both because the Browns need it and because the Buccaneers are terrible at slowing opposing tight ends.

Tampa has allowed the most fantasy points to the position this season.

Cleveland will likely have to pass often to keep pace with Tampa Bay, which averages 28.2 points per game. This should lead to a big day for Njoku.

Verdict: Start

Projection: five receptions, 68 yards, one TD

Carolina Defense/Special Teams vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Will Newton/Getty Images

The Carolina Panthers defense has been a solid real-world unit. It ranks 10th in points allowed (22.8 per game) and has amassed 12 sacks and seven interceptions.

Two games ago against the New York Giants, however, the Panthers got shelled for 31 points. Last week against the Washington Redskins, they only gave up 23, but they also allowed Washington to control the game and play relatively mistake-free football.

While the Panthers did sack Alex Smith three times, the were unable to force a turnover.

Things won't get easier this week against the Philadelphia Eagles, who seem to be hitting their stride (34 points against the New York Giants).

The Eagles can attack the Panthers with the run and the short passing game, much like the Giants and Washington did. This could lead to a similar result for Panthers D/ST fantasy owners.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 28 points allowed, two sacks, one INT