Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Chicago Bears (3-1) return from their bye week by making a trip to visit the Miami Dolphins (3-2) on Sunday as small road favorites at sportsbooks. The Bears are the surprising leaders of the NFC North through the first five weeks of the season, while the Dolphins are currently tied atop the AFC East with the New England Patriots.

NFL point spread: The Bears opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.4-17.8 Bears (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago is catching Miami in a good spot, off back-to-back losses where the team has obviously started to come back down to earth following a 3-0 start. The Bears are looking to break a four-game skid following a bye week both straight up and against the spread, with three of the losses coming under previous head coach John Fox.

New head coach Matt Nagy has done a great job since Chicago surrendered a 20-0 lead to the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, and second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is coming off a first half for the ages in which he tossed five touchdown passes en route to throwing a career-high six overall in a 48-10 rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins were up 17-0 against the Cincinnati Bengals on the road last week before falling apart in a 27-17 loss. But the Bears had a similar meltdown versus the Packers before bouncing back to win three in a row, which this team already did to start the year.

Miami is 2-0 at home this season and remains in contention for the division title with New England despite getting outscored by 18 points total in the first five games. The Dolphins are 14-6 straight up in their last 20 games after suffering consecutive losses, so they should rebound in this spot.

Smart betting pick

Chicago has played its best football at Soldier Field this season, and this will be another tough test for Trubisky.

The Bears are just 1-9 SU in their previous 10 games on the road against teams with winning records, and their lone victory away from home came at the Arizona Cardinals (1-4) in a game in which they failed to cover the spread as 5.5-point favorites. Look for Miami to pull off the upset as a small home underdog.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in six of the Bears' last eight games vs. the Dolphins.

The total has gone under in five of the Bears' last seven games.

The Bears are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road vs. teams with winning records.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.