Florida State beat rival Miami seven times in a row from 2010 through 2016, going 4-3 against the spread in the process. But the Hurricanes pulled off a minor miracle to stun the Seminoles last year in Tallahassee.
Who's the smart bet for Saturday afternoon's Sunshine State battle down in South Florida?
College football point spread: The Hurricanes opened as 12.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.7-25.6 Hurricanes (College football picks on every game)
Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread
FSU rides a modest two-game winning streak into this week, following last week's 28-24 victory at Louisville.
The Seminoles spotted the Cardinals an early touchdown and trailed 21-7 well into the third quarter.
However, a pair of Deondre Francois scoring passes pulled Florida State to within 24-21 late, and an interception in the red zone by senior A.J. Westbrook set up a third Francois touchdown pass, a 58-yard catch-and-run by Nyqwan Murray, for the winning points.
The Seminoles got beat on the stat sheet, but they persevered and made several big plays to come away with a much-needed victory.
Two weeks ago, Florida State put on its best performance of the season, beating Northern Illinois 37-19 and covering as a 10-point favorite.
Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread
Miami is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS over the last four weeks, after beating North Carolina last Thursday 47-10.
The Hurricanes spotted the Tar Heels an early field goal but scored the next 14 points of the game to take the lead for good. Miami led 33-10 at the half and blanked Carolina in the second half on its way toward the cover of a 19-point spread.
The Hurricanes ran the ball for 229 yards, as sophomore DeeJay Dallas produced his second 100-yard rushing effort in the last three games. Meanwhile, the Miami defense produced six takeaways and scored three touchdowns.
So since losing their season opener to LSU, the Hurricanes have won their last four games by an average score of 51-13.
Smart betting pick
Florida State got lucky last week, pulling victory from the jaws of defeat. But perhaps that's just what the Seminoles needed; a bit of good fortune.
Miami, meanwhile, is the better team in this matchup, but playing at home means the spread is a bit unfriendly. The last four matchups in this rivalry have been decided by a total of 14 points. The smart money takes the points here with Florida State.
College football betting trends
The total has gone under in Florida State's last seven games versus Miami.
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five games at home in October.
The total has gone under in 13 of Florida State's last 18 games on the road.
All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.