2018 MLB Free Agents: Predictions for Top Pitchers Set to Hit Open Market

For all that's been made of the potential record-breaking pay days that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will enjoy when they reach free agency for the first time this offseason, the pitching market also deserves some attention.

Clayton Kershaw will be the X-factor of the market, as he has a decision to make on an opt-out clause that would allow him to walk away from the final two years of his current deal.

He's far from the only impact arm, though.

Ahead is a look at the notable arms set to hit the free-agent market this winter, along with a few predictions for where some of the top guys will land and for how much.

Notable Free-Agent Pitchers

Starters

• Clay Buchholz
• Trevor Cahill
• Patrick Corbin (L)
• Nathan Eovaldi
• Marco Estrada
• Gio Gonzalez (L)
• Cole Hamels (L)—$20 million club option/$6 million buyout
• J.A. Happ (L)
• Matt Harvey
• Jeremy Hellickson
• Derek Holland (L)
• Clayton Kershaw (L)—opt out
• Dallas Keuchel
  
• Lance Lynn
• Wade Miley
• Charlie Morton
• David Price (L)—opt out
• Garrett Richards
• Tyson Ross
• Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)
• Anibal Sanchez
• James Shields—$16 million club option/$2 million buyout

Relievers

• Cody Allen
• Brad Brach
• Zach Britton (L)
• Jesse Chavez
• Jake Diekman (L)
• Jeurys Familia
• Kelvin Herrera
• Greg Holland
• Shawn Kelley
• Craig Kimbrel
• Ryan Madson
• Andrew Miller (L)
• Bud Norris
• Adam Ottavino
• David Phelps
• David Robertson
• Sergio Romo
• Tony Sipp (L)
• Justin Wilson (L)
• Brad Ziegler

Predictions

Clayton Kershaw

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

The biggest question of the offseason is a two-parter.

1. Will Clayton Kershaw opt out of the final two years and $65 million of his contract?

2. If he does opt out, will he consider signing elsewhere, or will it just be to get more years from the Dodgers?

He did little to put Dodgers fans minds at ease with his recent comments.

"I would be lying if I said it didn't cross my mind," Kershaw told reporters when asked if he had thought at all about how he may have made his last home start at Dodger Stadium.

The chances are he'll opt out, as the security that comes with adding a few years' worth of guaranteed money will be too appealing to pass up.

It's hard to envision the free-spending Dodgers letting their homegrown star get away, but there's always the possibility that someone makes him an offer he can't refuse.

Another postseason that doesn't end in a World Series title could also convince the 30-year-old that his best chance of winning a title may be elsewhere.

We shall see.

Prediction: Kershaw opts out, re-signs on a five-year, $175 million deal with the Dodgers.

Patrick Corbin

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

It's been a breakout season for Patrick Corbin.

An All-Star for the second time in his career, he's gone 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 242 strikeouts (3rd in NL) in 195 innings for 4.4 WAR.

The 29-year-old picked the perfect time for a career year. A case can be made he's the top starting pitching option on the market if Kershaw decides to stay put.

So which team is the early favorite to sign him?

As a Syracuse native, Corbin grew up a Yankees fan, and it sounds like he's open to the idea of donning pinstripes.

"It would definitely be great to play there," Corbin told Bob Nightengale of USA Today. "I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. I know the Yankees have had some interest in the past, and there were a lot of rumors this winter that got my family excited. It would have been cool."

With J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia and Lance Lynn all headed for free agency, the Yankees have a clear need in the rotation. It stands to reason that bolstering the starting staff will trump making a run at someone like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.

Prediction: Corbin signs a four-year, $72 million deal with the Yankees. 

Charlie Morton

Stephen Brashear/Getty Images

If there's any player this year who might consider accepting a qualifying offer, it's Charlie Morton.

The 34-year-old has become a different pitcher since joining the Houston Astros last season, going a combined 29-10 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 360 strikeouts in 310.2 innings for 5.0 WAR.

He's earning just $7 million this season and has earned roughly $40.7 million over the course of his career, according to Spotrac.

Morton has hinted at potentially retiring at the end of the 2018 season in the past. The chance to return for one more year and earn what figures to be a salary north of $18 million by accepting a qualifying offer could be too tempting to turn down.

His decision on the future could also impact the market for Dallas Keuchel.

If Morton does return, the Astros might be more inclined to let Keuchel walk in free agency. Losing both standout starters would be a tough pill to swallow for the defending champs, though.

Prediction: Morton accepts a qualifying offer and returns for one more year.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted.