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Philadelphia Eagles' Zach Ertz, right, pushes off from Atlanta Falcons' Ricardo Allen during the second half of an NFL football game Thursday, Sept. 6, 2018, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Michael Perez)
Philadelphia Eagles' Zach Ertz, right, pushes off from Atlanta Falcons' Ricardo Allen during the second half of an NFL football game Thursday, Sept. 6, 2018, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Michael Perez)Michael Perez/Associated Press

Week 3 NFL Picks: Predictions for Vegas' Final Odds, Props on Sunday's Schedule

Paul KasabianSep 23, 2018

Week 3 of the NFL season features an interesting variety of games. One matchup looks like a massive blowout on paper (Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings) while a few others may go down to the wire (e.g. the New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons).

Some games look like offensive shootouts (e.g. San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs), and others feature struggling offenses in which the first team to 20 points (if they get that far) will win (e.g. the Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals).

Until the games kick off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, here's a look at some odds and picks for the slate, in addition to analysis on two props. All spreads are via OddsShark, and the two props are from OddsChecker.

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Week 3 Picks and Spreads

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings: Vikings -16.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers: Panthers -3

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: Ravens -5.5

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins: Packers -2.5

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles: Colts +7

New York Giants at Houston Texans: Texans -6

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: Saints +2

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Raiders +3

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs -6.5

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars -9.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams: Rams -7

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals: Cardinals +4.5

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: Cowboys +1.5

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions: Patriots -7

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Steelers -1

Week 3 Best-Best Props

Houston Texans WR Will Fuller: Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (10/11)

The New York Giants will be missing two key defensive starters on Sunday against the Houston Texans, as linebacker Olivier Vernon and No. 2 cornerback Eli Apple will be out with ankle and groin injuries, respectively.

Vernon is arguably the team's best pass-rusher, and Apple had been coming off an excellent Week 2 performance, per Pro Football Focus:

The problem for the Giants is two-fold: Not only may they have trouble rushing the passer (they have just one sack on the season), but the Giants' secondary depth will be tested when cornerbacks B.W. Webb and Donte Deayon fill in for Apple this week.

Presumably, Webb and Deayon will be tasked with helping cover No. 2 Texans wide receiver Will Fuller while No. 1 Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins draws a tough one-on-one matchup with superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins.

That former matchup in particular may be a problem, as noted by Chris Raybon of The Action Network:

Fuller also has an incredible rapport with quarterback Deshaun Watson. The duo have played together for five games, and these are Fuller's stat lines, per Evan Silva of Rotoworld:

In addition to the above analysis, the New York Giants offense has struggled to move the ball, scoring just 28 points through two games and averaging 4.5 yards per play, which is the fourth-worst mark in the league, per Pro Football Reference. That number is inflated by running back Saquon Barkley's 68-yard touchdown run in Week 1.

It's easy to connect the dots. The Giants have trouble rushing the passer, which will give time for Watson to get comfortable. Big Blue is down a starting cornerback, which could give Fuller a matchup advantage. Watson and Fuller have proven chemistry, and they may get numerous opportunities in good field position because the Giants struggle moving the ball right now.

All of this leads to a potential monster day for Fuller, a deep threat who is capable of surpassing the listed 54.5-yard mark on one play. Take the over with confidence.

Philadelphia Eagles TE Zach Ertz: Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (10/11)

The Philadelphia Eagles are missing numerous skill-position players heading into their home tilt with the Indianapolis Colts.

Running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles are out. Wide receiver Mike Wallace is on injured reserve, and wideout Alshon Jeffery is questionable with a shoulder injury that has kept him out for the first two games.

But there is one player making a triumphant return, and that is quarterback Carson Wentz. The third-year pro is back after suffering a torn ACL in Week 14 of last season.

Like Fuller above, it's easy to connect the dots for this game. The Eagles are missing a group of key playmakers who would have usurped a large amount of touches. That touch loss will only get more pronounced if Jeffery sits this game out (that looks to be the case, as the ex-Chicago Bear hadn't been cleared for contact as of Friday).

This leaves two players on the Eagles' side who will presumably see a massive amount of targets on Sunday: wide receiver Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz.

Ertz played 10 full games with Wentz last year, averaging 63.9 receiving yards per game during that stretch (he and Wentz actually played 11 games together, but Ertz left one matchup with the Seattle Seahawks early due to a concussion).

Ertz averaged eight targets per game during that stretch, and that was with the Eagles having a relatively healthy skill-position core that included LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi (following a midseason trade), Jeffery, Agholor and Torrey Smith.

There were a lot of prominent mouths to feed, and now that all but one of those aforementioned players won't be on the field for the Eagles Sunday, it's certainly possible that Ertz sees 10-plus targets. He's already amassed 23 targets through two games, catching 16 passes for 142 yards.

Take the over on 69.5 yards as Ertz absorbs a healthy amount of targets.

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