Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Minnesota Vikings (1-0-1) are the biggest favorites of the young season so far as they host the Buffalo Bills (0-2) on Sunday as double-digit chalk at sportsbooks. The Vikings rallied to tie the Green Bay Packers 29-29 a week ago while the Bills may be the worst team in the league after being outscored 78-23 in their first two games.

NFL point spread: The Vikings opened as 16.5-point favorites; the total was 38.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.2-5.5 Vikings (NFL picks on every game).

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Why the Bills can cover the spread

The massive number gives Buffalo a shot to cover, as the team did just that the last time it was an underdog of 14 points or more. The Bills were listed as 14.5-point road underdogs but beat the spread when they fell to the New England Patriots 38-30 back on September 26, 2010.

They also would have covered last week had the number closed this high, with the Los Angeles Chargers getting outscored 14-3 in the second half but holding on as 7.5-point road favorites in a 31-20 victory. The back-door cover could be in effect here, as Buffalo simply needs to stay within a couple touchdowns.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The previous five times the Bills closed as favorites of at least 14 points before that loss to the Patriots, they also failed to cover the spread in routs of 27 or more. This matchup with Minnesota could follow that same trend, especially with new quarterback Kirk Cousins finally finding his groove through the air.

Cousins threw three of his four touchdown passes in the fourth quarter at Green Bay, totaling 425 yards and throwing only one interception. If it was not for kicker Daniel Carlson missing two field goals in overtime, the Vikings would be 2-0 both straight up and against the spread.

Smart betting pick

Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in its previous eight games as a double-digit favorite, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with six of them decided by 17 points or more.

Some might think the Vikings are due for a letdown after visiting the Packers in a divisional rivalry game, but they are also capable of covering the spread for the game in the first half versus the Bills and cruising from there. Take Minnesota to blow out Buffalo.

NFL betting trends

The Bills are 1-4 SU in their last five games on the road vs. the Vikings.

The total has gone over in the Bills' last three games on the road vs. the Vikings.

The Bills are 0-17 SU in their last 17 games as a double-digit underdog.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.