NFL Picks Week 3: Highlighting Best Vegas Odds and Expert Predictions

As the NFL season rolls into Week 3, seven teams sit at 2-0, while two more in the Packers and Vikings are unbeaten at 1-0-1. Some of the undefeated squads are the usual suspects, but some are certainly not.

The Miami Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are among the early surprises this season, particularly the latter as they took down two playoff teams in the New Orleans Saints and the Philadelphia Eagles with a backup quarterback.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins outlasted the Tennessee Titans in a delay-marred Week 1 game before bringing the New York Jets back down to earth.

These are obviously nice stories to start the season, but what are the chances both teams move to 3-0 this weekend? The odds are favoring one team, while another is still an underdog against a winless team.

Odds are courtesy of OddsShark.com

Week 3 NFL Odds

Jets at Browns (-3.5)

Bills at Vikings (16.5)

Giants at Texans (-3.5)

49ers at Chiefs (-4.5)

Saints at Falcons (-4)

Packers (-2.5) at Redskins

Colts at Eagles (-6)

Raiders at Dolphins (-3)

Broncos at Ravens (-3.5)

Bengals at Panthers (-3)

Titans at Jaguars (-6.5)

Chargers at Rams (-7)

Cowboys at Seahawks (-3)

Bears (-4.5) at Cardinals

Patriots (-7) at Lions

Steelers (-2.5) at Buccaneers

Steelers at Buccaneers

One would think that the team coming off of a 5-11 season with a backup quarterback would be in worse shape in Week 3 than one of the AFC favorites, yet here we are.

Not only are the Buccaneers atop the NFC South, but they are also scorching hot behind journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.

On the other hand, the Steelers have yet to win a game while tying the Browns. Not to mention the fact they are still without Le'Veon Bell and are seemingly dealing with new drama every week, the most recent of which is Antonio Brown skipping work on Monday.

The offensive production has not been the main issue, as the defense has struggled mightily in the first two weeks.

This happens to be in stark contrast to what Tampa Bay is doing on offense, as NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala explained:

Tampa Bay's defense has not been fantastic, but it has been solid enough to get the job done. Since being tattooed for 24 points in the first half against the Saints, the Buccaneers have conceded 37 points in the last six quarters. Overall, they rank second in the NFL in rushing defense.

Right now, Tampa Bay is superior on defense to the Steelers. They can also match Pittsburgh's explosive passing weapons of Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster with Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and DeSean Jackson. Yet the team playing better football is an underdog at home.

The Steelers are a circus, and until things start to definitively turn around, they cannot be trusted. This is especially true when giving points against a hot team.

Expect Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers offense to carve up a porous Steelers defense. Pittsburgh should be able to keep pace for most of the night, but with Ben Roethlisberger having 97 picks in 102 career road games, a turnover or two is inevitable. This should allow Tampa Bay to win outright on Monday night.

Raiders at Dolphins

There must be something in the air in Florida, as the Dolphins went from an afterthought in the preseason to 2-0. However, the team is still not being given much respect by Super Bowl oddsmakers, who list Miami as 500-1 to go all the way despite being one of the few undefeated squads in the league, per OddsShark.com.

Unlike the Buccaneers, though, the Dolphins are being given some respect for Week 3 against a winless team, where they enter as favorites against the Raiders. So is it time to trust the Dolphins? The jury is still out for the entirety of the season, but you can believe in Miami this week.

It is not pretty, but Ryan Tannehill somehow gets it done for the Dolphins when he manages to stay on the field. He is 9-1 in his last 10 starts, although eight of those starts came in 2016.

He has yet to eclipse 300 yards passing during that stretch, but he is allowing his team to stay in games with just two multi-interception games in that span.

What is more important to this matchup is what Tannehill and the Dolphins have going for them in 2018, and what the Raiders are lacking.

Offensively, the Dolphins want to play it relatively safe and avoid turnovers. This means pounding it on the ground and taking calculated risks with downfield shots, and Tannehill will not rack up a ton of yards. Thus, Miami is tied for fourth in the NFL in turnover differential and is one of the top running teams in the NFL.

The Raiders have one takeaway on offense this season, and they are not likely to force Miami into any third-and-long situations with their run defense, as Safid Deen of the Sun-Sentinel noted:

As if not having a stout run defense thus far is not bad enough, the Raiders decided to trade Khalil Mack to the Bears ahead of the season. They are now tied for second-to-last for sacks in the NFL with two. Even when Tannehill drops back to pass, the threat of him being forced into a mistake by pressure is not high.

Derek Carr is a good enough quarterback to lead a couple of scoring drives, but the offense and its mere 16 points per game do not seem to be enough to trust for consistent points. The issue is that Miami will likely hold on to the ball for long stretches, which would force the Raiders to score on most of their possessions to feel good about a win.

A three-point spread is essentially a straight-up pick, and all signs point to the Dolphins to continue their surprising start. The Raiders simply do not have enough top-end strengths, while the Dolphins do everything well but nothing especially poor. Take Miami's odds here.

Statistics are courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.