NFL Picks Week 3: Advice for Current Vegas Odds, Spreads and Over-Under Lines

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistSeptember 18, 2018

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) walks off the field after defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers in an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 16, 2018, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Don Wright)
Don Wright/Associated Press

Upon first glance, some of the betting lines for Week 3 in the NFL are intriguing enough to put money on immediately. 

Other spreads and over/under lines might not look favorable at the moment, but there are a few bets across the board you can convince yourself into making before the lines fluctuate ahead of the weekend. 

The Week 3 opener Thursday night may not be appealing on paper, especially with the Cleveland Browns involved, but it could serve as a starting point for betting success in Week 3. 

The games scheduled for Sunday and Monday will be a bit more difficult to figure out, as only four road teams are favored and a quartet of over/under lines sit above 50.

           

NFL Week 3 Odds

Thursday, September 20

New York Jets at Cleveland (-3) (Over/Under: 39) 

          

Sunday, September 23

Buffalo at Minnesota (-17) (O/U: 41) 

Cincinnati at Carolina (-3) (O/U: 43.5) 

Denver at Baltimore (-5) (O/U: 43) 

Green Bay (-3) at Washington (O/U: 46) 

Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-6) (O/U: 47.5) 

New York Giants at Houston (-6) (O/U: 41.5) 

New Orleans at Atlanta (-3) (O/U: 53) 

Oakland at Miami (-3) (O/U: 44) 

San Francisco at Kansas City (-6.5) (O/U: 56) 

Tennessee at Jacksonville (-6.5) (O/U: 39.5) 

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) (O/U: 48) 

Chicago (-4) at Arizona  (O/U: 40) 

Dallas at Seattle (-3) (O/U: 44.5) 

New England (-6.5) at Detroit (O/U: 51.5) 

         

Monday, September 24

Pittsburgh (-2) at Tampa Bay (O/U: 53.5) 

Odds obtained from OddsShark.

           

Take Cleveland And The Over Thursday Night 

No matter how dreadful Thursday's game between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns looks on paper, you're going to find a way to bet on it. 

While they still haven't won a game, the Browns have put together back-to-back positive performances against Pittsburgh and New Orleans. 

More importantly, the Browns are 2-0 against the spread in 2018, even though they are 7-17-1 versus the spread in their last 25 games. 

Butch Dill/Associated Press

It's understandable if you don't trust either team and keep your money in your pocket, but if you choose to wager, go after Cleveland and the over. 

The Browns have been competitive in each of their first two games because of their tenacious defense, but Thursday will be the time to let Tyrod Taylor and the offense loose against a Jets team that put up 48 road points in Week 1. 

The average number of total points scored in Cleveland's two games is 40.5, while the Jets' average is 48.5. 

Taking the over doesn't mean you think Thursday will produce an aesthetically pleasing 60 minutes of football, but it shows confidence in both offenses to do enough to make the game exciting. 

Cleveland wide receiver Jarvis Landry should add to the excitement, as he has 610 receiving yards and three touchdowns in eight career games against the Jets, and September is the second-most productive month of his career. 

Ron Schwane/Associated Press

Another Browns player to watch is running back Carlos Hyde, who recorded 193 rushing yards on 17 carries in his lone game against the Jets with the San Francisco 49ers. 

From the Jets' perspective, running back Isaiah Crowell, who eclipsed 100 rushing yards in Week 1, has plenty of motivation to succeed against his former team.

The Browns will benefit from Taylor and Landry's connection in the second half to pull away from the Jets and earn their first victory since December 24, 2016, while scoring over 25 points for the first time this season.

               

Take The Risk With the High Over In Chiefs-49ers

The high-flying Kansas City Chiefs offense returns home in Week 3 after posting 42 points at Heinz Field in Week 2. 

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown 10 touchdowns to six different receivers, with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce the only players to catch more than one score from the Texas Tech product. 

PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 16: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates with Sammy Watkins #14 after a 29 yard touchdown reception in the fourth quarter during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on September 16, 2018 in Pi
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Since they've performed so well offensively in the first two weeks, the Chiefs have been assigned the highest over/under line of Week 3 at 56. 

While it might be easy to bet the under based on the high over/under line, there's reason to believe the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will eclipse it. 

Kansas City's first two games featured point totals of 66 and 79, while the 49ers combined with the Detroit Lions for 57 points in Week 2. 

With three out of the four games played by both teams going over 56 points, it feels like more of a no-brainer to take the risk with the over. 

Add into the mix that the Chiefs and 49ers combined to concede 116 points in the first two weeks and you have the perfect recipe for a Sunday shootout at Arrowhead Stadium. 

         

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

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