Texas A&M Aggies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 17, 2018

Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond (11) hands the ball off to running back Trayveon Williams (5) during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Louisiana Monroe Saturday, Sept. 15 2018, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)
Sam Craft/Associated Press

Since that wild day six years ago when Johnny Football led his Texas A&M team to an upset of the Alabama Crimson Tide are 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread versus the Aggies. Can Alabama cover a big number against Texas A&M on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa?

   

College football point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 26-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 46.8-20.2 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

   

Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread

The Aggies are 2-1 SU on this young season and 3-0 ATS, following their 48-10 victory over Louisiana-Monroe last week. Texas A&M drove 84 yards to a touchdown on its opening possession of the game and later added a score on the return of a blocked field goal for a 24-3 lead. The Aggies then allowed the Warhawks to get within 24-10 at the half, then won the second half 24-0 and covered as 28-point favorites.

On the night Texas A&M out-gained ULM 530-328, out-rushed the Warhawks 281-103, made 32 first downs to 14 for ULM and won time of possession by a 35-25 split.

The Aggies already own a cover against a national championship contender this season; two weeks ago they rallied to within a two-point conversion against Clemson, lost 28-26 but covered as 12-point dogs.

   

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The Tide remain the top-ranked team in the county, and a great bet, after mauling Ole Miss last week 62-7. Alabama actually spotted the Rebels a 75-yard touchdown on the first play of the game, but sometimes a quick slap in the face is a great motivator. The Tide then proceeded to score touchdowns on four of their first five possessions, led 28-7 by the end of the first quarter and 49-7 by the half, on their way to an easy cover as 22-point favorites.

On the evening Alabama out-gained Ole Miss 516-248, and over a quarter of the Rebs' yards came on that one long scoring play. The Tide also added pick-six in the third quarter, already their fourth defensive/special teams touchdown this season.

Alabama opened this campaign with a 51-14 rout of Louisville, covering a 23-point spread, then beat Arkansas State 57-7, covering a 37-point spread.

   

Smart betting pick

The Crimson Tide are going to win this game, so the only thing that really matters is the point spread and the final margin. Generally speaking, Alabama is a good bet on the road, where spreads are friendlier, but a little tougher cover at home, where spreads are inflated.

Also, Texas A&M gave the Tide a good game last year and covered as a 25-point underdog, and gave Clemson a good game two weeks ago. The smart money here takes the Aggies and the points.

   

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in three of Texas A&M's last four games vs Alabama.

Alabama is 20-0 SU in its last 20 games at home.

The total has gone under in eight of Texas A&M's last 11 games on the road.

    

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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