
Identifiying Early NFL Breakout Candidates
New stars emerge every week in the NFL. The difficult part is ascertaining whether they'll continue to shine or flicker out as the season progresses.
After Week 1, a handful of standouts appear likely to fall in the former category.
Though they're early into their NFL careers, these players proved they can ball out when given the opportunity. Some needed time before they entered the starting lineup. Others were immediate contributors. A few took advantages of others being absent. All of them caused onlookers to pause, watch and admire.
A year ago, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff and Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt made a statement at the start of the 2017 campaign: Veteran or rookie status didn't matter. These breakthrough performances led to bigger and better things.
The same possibility exists for those who followed in their footsteps this year.
Expectations will grow as the season progresses. A few missteps will inevitably occur along the way. But based on their Week 1 performances, the following 10 players could be on the path toward a breakout 2018 season.
Darron Lee, New York Jets
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First-round picks are often placed under a microscope, which causes their shortcomings to be magnified.
The New York Jets used the 20th overall pick in the 2016 draft to select 21-year-old linebacker Darron Lee. Though he struggled to provide consistent play during his first two seasons, his Week 1 performance against the Detroit Lions suggests everything is starting to click.
Lee had seven total tackles and snagged a pair of interceptions, including one which he returned for a touchdown, in Monday's 48-17 victory over Detroit.
"It does (feel good), but that's just the expectations," Lee said, per NJ Advance Media's Matt Stypulkoski. "So I guess that's why I receive the criticism, because I should have been doing this earlier. But whatever, better late than never. But never late is better. We'll be alright."
The Jets spent a first-round pick on Lee because of his raw athleticism and range. The 232-pounder has 4.47-second 40-yard-dash speed, which allows him to run with most pass-catchers.
But raw ability only takes a player so far. The difference can be found is Lee's preparation.
"We were calling out their plays as [Matthew Stafford was] getting up to the line," he said after the game, per Stypulkoski. "We knew his signals, we knew everything. That's just preparation as a defense and we're looking to build on that."
Now that he's 23, Lee's maturation appears to have caught up with his natural skill set. If Monday's game is any indication, that will make him into a dynamic playmaker.
Denzel Ward, Cleveland Browns
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The Cleveland Browns' decision to draft Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward with the fourth overall pick in April came as a surprise. Though other defenders maintained higher grades throughout the predraft process, the Browns chose Ward due to his elite athleticism, physical style of play and need.
Against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, Ward justified Cleveland's choice.
According to Pro Football Focus, Ward played more snaps (81) than any rookie defender and received the highest grade among this year's first-round corners. He also snagged a pair of interceptions and defended three passes.
"Just shows you why he went top five (in the draft)," safety Damarious Randall said, per Cleveland.com's Dan Labbe. "I was excited whenever we drafted him."
Though Ward surrendered a touchdown, he remained in-step with the game's best wide receiver, Antonio Brown, with near-perfect technique. There's no way to stop a perfect throw, though.
"I gave up the touchdown, though, and that is unacceptable," Ward said, per Ohio.com's George M. Thomas. "And we didn't get the win. ... It wasn't a win. We've got a lot of stuff to work on."
That's exactly what the Browns coaching staff will want to hear, even after a stellar performance.
Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers
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The San Francisco 49ers will have the league's most promising inside linebacker duo once Reuben Foster returns from a two-game suspension for violating the league's conduct and substance abuse policies.
Foster is already an exciting young defender. Fred Warner's emergence is a surprise, though.
Unlike Foster, Warner wasn't a first-round pick. The 49ers chose the 21-year-old in the third round this year, and he proved in Week 1 against the Vikings that he's ready to move into the starting lineup and shoulder plenty as the "Mike" linebacker.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained Warner's transition to calling out plays, via 49ers Webzone:
"Yeah, the main difference is all of the communication and stuff you have to do, so there is a little bit more put on a rookie in terms of communication. But we felt Fred earned that spot. We thought he played at a very high level throughout the practices and the games that he got in on. So did Reuben last year. But we thought he was better at the other spot, not doing the communication. Fred, it hasn't slowed down. He's been good with it, and since he earned it physically and it didn't slow him down from a mental aspect, it was a pretty easy decision."
In his first professional start, the 21-year-old Warner led the 49ers with 12 total tackles, one tackle for loss, a forced fumble, a deflected pass and a quarterback hit.
Shanahan's comments indicate Warner will stay in the lineup even when Foster returns. After his performance against Minnesota, there shouldn't be any doubt about the rookie's ability to handle that role.
James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Le'Veon Bell who?
In Bell's absence, James Conner totaled 192 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. With Bell's long-term future in Pittsburgh up in the air, Conner has the look of a future lead back for the Steelers.
"I watched that guy tote that ball a lot next door," Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said of Conner's time with the Pittsburgh Panthers, per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Joe Rutter. "He's been doing that a long time. I think he's used to that. I think he gets better with use. I think that's one of the things that was attractive about him."
The Steelers weren't shy about using Connor in a Bell-esque role. He carried the ball 31 times and caught five passes for 57 yards, tying Bell's best single-game mark for yards from scrimmage in 2017.
"[He] ran hard, caught the ball well, made plays for us," Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger told reporters after Sunday's game. "I was proud of the way he played in his first game."
Bell will eventually return and supplant Conner as Pittsburgh's lead back. Regardless, Conner should remain a vital part of the game plan, as he has the potential to replace Bell as early as next season.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
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Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay made a proclamation before the start of the 2018 season.
"I want a breakout season myself," the second-year wideout said, per the Detroit Free Press' Dave Birkett. "I'm trying to make a whole lot of plays for this team."
Golladay fulfilled his promise in Week 1 against the Jets. The 2017 third-round pick led the team with 114 receiving yards in the 48-17 loss.
It's worth noting that Golladay scored two touchdowns in his NFL debut last season, only to trail off and snag one score over his final 10 games. But unlike last year, two factors point toward him keeping his momentum going beyond Week 1.
First, Golladay played a career-high 65 snaps Monday, according to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke. In addition, new head coach Matt Patricia seems to hold Golladay and his size in higher regard.
"Really thought he played at a high level, really feel that he can make some big plays for this team," Patricia said of Golladay's effort, per WXYT Detroit's Dan Leach. "I thought he played hard."
Marvin Jones and Golden Tate are proven options, but a 6'4" target with a huge catch radius adds a different element. Since Tate primarily works out of the slot, Golladay should continue to be on the field when the Lions utilize "11" personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers).
Mike Hughes, Minnesota Vikings
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Mike Hughes wasn't supposed to make an immediate impact for the Minnesota Vikings, who drafted him with the 30th overall pick in April's draft. In Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander and Marcus Sherels, they already had plenty of talent at cornerback, but they found the value too good to pass up.
"As many times as we can find guys that can cover around here, the more we want," head coach Mike Zimmer said the day after Minnesota drafted Hughes, per ESPN.com's Courtney Cronin.
Because of their secondary depth, the Vikings didn't have to immediately work Hughes into the lineup. He earned the nickel spot leading into the regular season, but the team needed him to replace Waynes at outside corner after the veteran suffered a knee injury during Sunday's contest against the 49ers.
Hughes' reputation as a ballhawk followed him throughout the predraft process and proved to be true during his NFL debut. The rookie picked off Jimmy Garoppolo and returned it 28 yards for a touchdown. He also defended three passes.
"He was competitive, he got up there and he typically challenged the receivers," Zimmer said, per Cronin. "A lot of young guys, when they go in there and they're playing their first game, they're going to play a little bit cautious. He wasn't like that at all."
Hughes will likely return to the nickel spot once Waynes is healthy, but the Vikings now know they can rely on their top pick to produce in any situation.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
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With Patrick Mahomes taking over for Alex Smith, the Kansas City Chiefs offense appeared to be in danger of taking a step backward this season.
The second-year signal-caller put those fears to rest with an electric performance against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1.
Mahomes captured AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after throwing for 256 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday's 38-28 victory over L.A.
"He made plays, and he did it with his legs, he did it with throwing, he did it with checks," Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said of Mahomes, per ESPN.com's Adam Teicher. "I have a lot of respect for [Chargers defensive coordinator] Gus Bradley and his defense. He threw a few things at Mahomes. He got him a few times. But I thought Pat did a nice job of handling it against an experienced and very good defensive coordinator."
Mahomes' spectacular arm talent allows the Chiefs to take advantage of the game's most dynamic weapon, Tyreek Hill. Hill can't outrun Mahomes' cannon, which opens up the entire playbook. In addition, the quarterback's ability to navigate the pocket and create with his feet borders on special.
"He's a unique kid," Reid said, per Teicher. "He's got to keep working here. He's just at the beginning of this thing. We've got to keep moving forward, taking steps forward."
The Chiefs now have the NFL's most exciting offense, along with a true difference-maker at the game's most important position.
Sam Darnold, New York Jets
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It's not how a player starts; it's how he finishes.
Sam Darnold couldn't have envisioned a worse start to his NFL career. This year's third overall pick rolled to his right on his first pass attempt and tried to throw across his body to the opposite side of the field, but Lions defensive back Quandre Diggs jumped the route for an easy pick-six.
From that point on, everything was smooth sailing for the youngest opening-week starter in NFL history. The 21-year-old finished the game by completing 16 of his next 20 passes, including a pair of touchdowns.
As impressive as his stats were, Darnold's calm demeanor was even more so.
"It's great to see. It's rare more nowadays," head coach Todd Bowles said of Darnold's composure, per Tyler Calvaruso of USA Today's Jets Wire. "... It's exciting to see because he's got an old soul, but he's young in age, but he understands the game very well and he works at it the right way."
Rookies often need time to win over a locker room, but that doesn't appear to be the case for Darnold.
"He's a stud," left tackle Kelvin Beachum said, per the New York Post's Brian Costello.
Darnold's teammates now know he won't get rattled if he makes a mistake in a big moment. In Week 1, he experienced the worst before showing his best.
T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Pittsburgh Steelers quietly switched outside linebackers T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree prior to the regular season, and the move paid immediate dividends.
So much so, Watt earned AFC Defensive Player of the Week honors after registering an eye-popping 11 total tackles and four sacks during Sunday's 21-21 tie with the Browns.
"I will say I'm not surprised that he had an impactful game," head coach Mike Tomlin said Tuesday, per Alex Kozora of Steelers Depot. "It was schematically set up for him to impact the game. And he did."
Beyond effective game-planning, Watt played with a relentless motor and defended the run well. He also collapsed the left side of Cleveland's offensive line and blocked the potential game-winning field goal in overtime.
Fair or not, Watt will always be compared to his older brother, J.J., who is a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He may never be able to live up to those standards, but Sunday's performance shouldn't come as a surprise. The younger sibling notched 11 sacks in his first 16 contests, while the elder Watt managed only 5.5 over his first 16.
By rushing from the strong side, Watt can utilize his full skill set and take advantage of mismatches against right tackles, while the athletic Dupree is allotted more space to work.
The move looks brilliant, and the Steelers appear to have a new star linebacker in Watt.
Will Dissly, Seattle Seahawks
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Seattle Seahawks tight end Will Dissly made quite the splash in his NFL debut.
Known as a blocking tight end throughout the predraft process, Dissly paced all rookies in Week 1 with 105 receiving yards, including a touchdown. According to Rotoworld's Rich Hribar, Dissly became the first rookie tight end to record 100 or more receiving yards in his first career game since Bob Trumpy did so 50 years ago.
Seven different tight ends came off the board before the Seahawks chose Dissly. He projected to provide immediate help in the run game, but Seattle quickly learned he can be a bigger part of the entire scheme.
"He's one of the most athletic guys that we have on our team, in terms of all the things that he can do," quarterback Russell Wilson said last week, per Andy Patton of USA Today's Seahawks Wire. "Just watching him how he's relaxed and poised just to be great. I think he's going to be a really good tight end for us."
Wilson didn't make those comments just to pump up the rookie's confidence. He knew how good Dissly has been since April.
"Well, he's been great all training camp, and he's been great all OTAs (organized team activities)," Wilson said after Sunday's contest, per Montana Sports' Casey Conlon. "He's been a rock star for us."
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