Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The Washington Nationals (67-66) will go for their fourth straight win Wednesday when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies (70-62) as small road underdogs at the sportsbooks for the finale of this three-game divisional series.

Following a 5-4 loss on Tuesday, the Phillies trail the Atlanta Braves by 4.5 games for the lead in the National League East, while the Nationals are eight games out despite their three-game winning streak.

MLB betting line: The Phillies opened as -121 favorites (wager $121 to win $100); the total is at nine runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 5.9-2.2, Phillies (MLB picks on every game)

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Why the Nationals can pay on the MLB lines

Washington will likely miss out on the playoffs this year, but the team is playing some of its best baseball of the season and could be a dangerous spoiler team down the stretch.

In this series, Philadelphia has dropped the first two games by a combined three runs along with eight of 10 overall to slide further back in the race for one of the league's two wild-card berths as well.

The Nationals will be looking to take advantage of a down Phillies squad and complete the road sweep with lefty Gio Gonzalez (7-11, 4.35 ERA) on the mound.

Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke/Associated Press

The 32-year-old is coming off a solid outing away from home against the New York Mets last Friday, allowing one run and seven hits in seven innings of a 3-0 loss.

Why the Phillies can pay on the MLB lines

Washington has lost seven of the last eight times Gonzalez has toed the rubber, so Philadelphia at least has that in its favor.

The problem is, Jake Arrieta (9-9, 3.37 ERA) is suffering through a personal three-game skid, with the Phillies also losing his past four starts.

In two of those four outings, though, the 32-year-old gave up a total of one run and seven hits in 14 innings with two walks and 10 strikeouts. In order words, he has pitched well enough to earn at least one victory if not two during that stretch.

In addition, Arrieta has gone 4-3 with a 2.88 ERA in 12 starts at Citizens Bank Park with opponents hitting .223.

Smart betting pick

Philadelphia has lost four of the past five meetings in this series after winning five of the previous seven, according to the OddsShark MLB Database, and time is running out on this team to make a run at the division title.

Fortunately for the Phillies, Arrieta is a superior pitcher when compared to Gonzalez, and he has a 2.45 ERA in two starts versus the Nationals this season.

The third time will be the charm as he ends his losing streak, and Philadelphia does too to stay within striking distance of Atlanta.

MLB betting trends

The total has gone over in eight of Washington's last 12 games.

The total has gone over in six of Philadelphia's last nine games.

Philadelphia is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home.

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.