Predicting Outcomes for the Biggest Names on NFL Roster Bubbles

The NFL is fickle. A player can be part of the solution one year but on the way out the following season.

The league's most despised day is looming. All 32 teams must trim their active rosters from 90 to 53 players by 4 p.m. ET Saturday. Just like that, 1,184 individuals with dreams of suiting up on Sundays will be cut. Granted, 320 will be signed to practice squads, with others placed on injured reserve, but the goal is to be on the field.

A menagerie of first-round busts, one-time Pro Bowlers and former starters will headline these roster cuts. Once believed to be the future, they're struggling to stick to rosters. This year's group could feature an Offensive Rookie of the Year, a two-time All-Pro and one-half of the NFL's most successful twins.

Situations often dictate transactions, but the bottom line is far simpler: The following 10 players are no longer who they once were or never developed to expectations, and recognizability finishes a distant second behind value. Each remains on the bubble waiting to find out if they'll be retained or released. 

Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions

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Ameer Abdullah led the NFL's worst ground attack in two of the last three seasons. The 2015 second-round pick has never run for more than 597 yards and only played 16 games once.

In the offseason, the Detroit Lions made the running back position a priority, signing LeGarrette Blount and drafting Kerryon Johnson.

"I'm not really here to say I'm going to be on the roster," Abdullah said, per the Detroit Free Press' Dave Birkett. "Cause right now that's out of my control, and that's something that's next week. I can't control the future."

With Blount and Johnson entrenched at the top of the depth chart and Theo Riddick's value as a third-down back, there's little room for other backs on the roster. Abdullah is still a work in progress who wouldn't provide much value on special teams if general manager Bob Quinn decides to keep four backs.

"A lot of things I've got to continue to get more in the groove of—get my eyes quicker seeing things," Abdullah said. "But like I said, I'm taking every day in stride. I'm my own worst critic. Nobody can say anything about me that I haven't said about myself before. So that's how I approach every single day."

Prediction: Released

Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens

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Breshad Perriman provided the Baltimore Ravens with next to nothing during his first three seasons and continues to do so.

The 2015 first-round pick has managed 43 receptions for 576 yards and three touchdowns in his career. As a result, the wide receiver is being pushed off the roster.

Said Perriman in July, per the Baltimore Sun's Edward Lee:

"It's a scary topic. You know what's on the line; you know that everything is on the line. It's kind of like a make-or-break year, but at the same time, you can't put that extra pressure on yourself. So I just really want to go out there and get better every day and control what you can control. Go out there and get better every day and go hard and everything will play out."

Since then, Perriman has barely made a dent in the competition, per The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec. After notching three receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens' preseason opener, he has three receptions for 22 yards in the last two contests.

The 6'2", 215-pound target is supposed to be a downfield burner, but he's never developed into the threat Baltimore envisioned. Instead, John Brown now fills that role opposite the team's top receiving option, Michael Crabtree. Willie Snead IV will work from the slot. The organization, meanwhile, will likely continue to invest in rookies Jordan Lasley and Janarion Grant.

Prediction: Released

Chance Warmack, Philadelphia Eagles

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Floating a player's name as a potential trade target usually marks the first step toward releasing him. And, according to The MMQB's Albert Breer, Philadelphia Eagles left guard Chance Warmack is among those available.

Warmack hasn't lived up to expectations after he was a human wrecking ball at Alabama. The Tennessee Titans drafted Warmack 10th overall in 2013 before he fell out of favor. The Eagles signed him to a one-year deal in free agency last March and extended him for this season in September.

The 26-year-old started three games in 2017, but Stefen Wisniewski solidified his status between Jason Kelce and Jason Peters on the left side. Warmack's position inflexibility makes him a liability if he's not starting.

Teams tend to carry eight, maybe nine blockers on the active roster with seven active on game days. Warmack is purely a guard, whereas Isaac Seumalo (guard-center) and rookie Matt Pryor (guard-tackle) play multiple positions. Plus, Halapoulivaati Vaitai started the Super Bowl last season, though he'll give way to a healthy Peters. With the starting five and those three in place, there's no room for Warmack.

As a top pick with 51 starts under his belt, Warmack carries value since offensive line depth is so thin around the league. But if the Eagles can't find a trade partner, seventh-round project Jordan Mailata is a better bet to make the team than Warmack.

Prediction: Released

Haloti Ngata, Philadelphia Eagles

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The Eagles could very well enter the campaign with Chris Long, Haloti Ngata and Michael Bennett as their backup defensive linemen.

Granted, they are on the downsides of their careers, yet they still flash the talent that once made them top-end defenders. The 34-year-old Ngata presents the most interesting case among the trio since he may have a little less in the tank after missing 11 games last season with a torn biceps.

In fact, the unheralded Destiny Vaeao earned starting reps next to Fletcher Cox while Tim Jernigan recovers from offseason back surgery, according to Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Jernigan's health is why Ngata remains in the mix.

Ngata isn't the same overwhelming force as he was when he made five straight Pro Bowls and was twice named an All-Pro from 2009 to 2013. However, his size (6'4", 340 lbs) and power at the point of attack still make him a capable run defender.

Elijah Qualls isn't a consistent performer, and undrafted rookie Bruce Hector appears to have jumped ahead of Qualls, according to NJ.com's Zack Rosenblatt.

The Philadelphia interior needs stability at 1-technique. Ngata provides it. The organization may be intrigued by younger options, but the Oregon product is an ideal backup/spot starter.

Prediction: Retained

Jason McCourty, New England Patriots

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Jason McCourty dreamed of playing with his twin brother, Devin. The two have spent the last five months working alongside one another as members of the New England Patriots. But Jason McCourty's time with his new organization may be short-lived.

McCourty doesn't fit in the defensive backfield as it's constructed, even after playing safety for the first time in his career Friday. As head coach Bill Belichick told reporters:

"A lot of playing players in different positions in preseason relates to building depth on our roster. Sometimes players have to be ready to back up at that position or play at that position. I think it was a good experience and hopefully, whether he does or doesn't play safety down the road, it might have given him a better understanding going forward."

The New England secondary is deep. McCourty is a cornerback by trade, and he's behind Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe and Jonathan Jones. A trio of rookies—Duke Dawson, J.C. Jackson and Keion Crossen—is pushing for playing time as well.

At safety, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung are the starters, and Duron Harmon and Jordan Richards are established backups.

The idea that both McCourtys could be on the same field for the same team is wonderful, but the reality isn't as positive.

Prediction: Released

Jimmie Ward, San Francisco 49ers

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Talent means nothing if a player can't stay healthy. Jimmie Ward has been beset with injuries in his career. So it should come as no surprise he has a strained quadriceps.

Said San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, per the San Francisco Chronicle's Eric Branch:

"I feel for him because I know he's as frustrated with it as anyone. Hopefully, this quad thing won't be too long because we expect him to help us out a lot this year just like he did last year when he was healthy. And just like before we got here when he was healthy. But he's had a tough run of luck here and hopefully that will start to get better for him."

Shanahan's comments should calm any nerves Ward experiences over the possibility of being released. Clearly, the team has plans for the defensive back, who can play cornerback, free safety and nickel corner.

"Jimmie works real hard," Shanahan said. "And I love Jimmie as a player; he's very tough. He has gotten hurt a lot, but I don't question any of those [injuries]. Jimmie throws his body around. He works very hard, and he's just been very unfortunate."

Ward carries an $8.5 million price tag this fall—which is exorbitant for any backup. His versatility and coach's approval, though, seem like they will be enough for him to stick around in San Francisco through the final year of his contract.

Prediction: Retained

Kevin White, Chicago Bears

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Kevin White is no longer viewed as the future of the Chicago Bears offense. Yet his place in the wide receiver rotation appears intact, especially after his preseason performance against the Kansas City Chiefs. White caught his first NFL touchdown Saturday, and his head coach couldn't have been happier.

"I root for underdogs. I love underdogs," Matt Nagy said, per 670 The Score's Chris Emma. "And when you have an underdog that fights his tail off to improve, and when people don't believe in him and he proves the people that do believe [in] him right, then there's nothing better than that."

Injuries, not inability, stunted White's growth after he was the seventh overall pick in the 2015 draft. He had to earn his roster spot this offseason. He seems to have done so, even though the Bears are set among their top three targets.

At best, White is the team's fourth option behind Allen Robinson II, Taylor Gabriel and rookie Anthony Miller. Seventh-round pick Javon Wims has also been spectacular with a league-high 227 receiving yards this preseason. Joshua Bellamy is yet another option and a special teams ace.

White's grip on a roster spot may not be secure. The Bears, however, are in position to give him one more chance and can move on after the season if he doesn't develop.

Prediction: Retained

Michael Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals

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Supposedly, a team can't have too many good pass-rushers. The Cincinnati Bengals are going to test that theory.

The Bengals are five deep at defensive end, so Michael Johnson's status comes into question because of his age and salary. The 31-year-old holds a $6.1 cap hit this season, and the franchise can save $4.2 million by releasing him, according to Spotrac.

"Why would I think about that?" Johnson said when asked about the possibility of being cut, per The Athletic's Jay Morrison. "I come in and I work hard and I do whatever I'm asked to do, and I don't worry about all that. You can't. Of course, you see what's going on, but you control what you can control. You get to focusing and worrying about all the other stuff, you get distracted, and that ain't what you want."

Carl Lawson and Jordan Willis are ready for larger roles, while Carlos Dunlap remains a constant. Plus, the team used a third-round pick to select Sam Hubbard.

But Johnson's consistency makes him a valuable part of the rotation. Besides, the coaching staff plans to utilize the 10th-year veteran as a left end in the base front after he's played right end his entire career.

"You have to retrain yourself when you've been doing something forever," Johnson said. "But I played both sides in college. It's just working, just repetition, repetition, repetition, then doing it in the games and getting comfortable with it."

Prediction: Retained

Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos

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Typically, fans aren't invested in preseason games. But Denver Broncos devotees booed Paxton Lynch on Aug. 18.

"I just haven't been playing well," Lynch said after the second preseason contest, per ESPN.com. "It's not acceptable, especially playing quarterback here. You have to play well and give [the Broncos] an opportunity to win every week."

The backlash was a byproduct of multiple factors. The 2016 first-round pick's disappointing play is at the forefront. Perception plays a part, as well, since Lynch is supposed to be the quarterback of the future. After all, he's John Elway's handpicked guy. But the organization signed Case Keenum this offseason, and 2017 seventh-round pick Chad Kelly surpassed Lynch on the depth chart.

That final point is important since no team is going to move on from a quarterback with potential if another one isn't ready to take his place. Kelly has played outstandingly this preseason, and the second-year Mississippi product will start the final contest.

"So far, he's doing a great job," head coach Vance Joseph said last Tuesday, per 247 Sports' Chad Jensen. "I can't say what more he can do."

It's simple: Lynch is the odd man out if Denver decides to keep two quarterbacks.

Prediction: Released

Robert Griffin III, Baltimore Ravens

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Robert Griffin III's status with the Ravens is dependent on Lamar Jackson's development and how comfortable the organization is with a rookie backup quarterback.

It's easy to say Jackson is a dynamic talent with the potential to become a franchise signal-caller. A far different argument can be made about his readiness. So, Griffin's career hangs in the balance.

A third quarterback is a luxury. The Ravens coaching staff, though, likes what it's seen of the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

"He has played at a starting-caliber level in the games that he's played, and he's an experienced guy," head coach John Harbaugh said, per ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley. "I'd rather have him than not have him, for sure, but there are other factors that go into that, and we'll have to figure all that out. [GM] Ozzie [Newsome] ultimately will have to make that decision."

Since Jackson is completing only 47.2 percent of his passes compared to Griffin's 65.9 percent, the 28-year-old may have a good chance to make the roster, especially with Harbaugh in his corner.

"There's no question that the best quarterback thing to do would be to keep Robert Griffin," the coach said. "He's proven it. He's played exceptionally well, and it makes the team better."

Another strong performance in the team's preseason finale against the Washington Redskins should make the decision easy.

Prediction: Retained