Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The Philadelphia Phillies (68-57) will try to end a three-game losing streak on Wednesday when they visit the Washington Nationals (63-63) as large road underdogs at the sportsbooks.

The Phillies dropped the series opener to the Nationals 10-4 on Tuesday, with their bullpen getting blown up for nine runs over three innings.

MLB betting line: The Nationals opened as -173 favorites (wager $173 to win $100); the total is at 8.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 3.5-1.6, Phillies (MLB picks on every game)

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Why the Phillies can pay on the MLB lines

Philadelphia's relief pitchers cannot perform much worse than they did on Tuesday, and hopefully Zach Eflin (9-4, 3.70 ERA) can stay in the game longer than Vincent Velasquez did.

Velasquez gave up just one run in the first four innings before the bullpen imploded, and Eflin has gone at least six innings in each of his previous three outings.

The 24-year-old righty has earned two wins over that stretch, and the one loss in between them was actually a better effort than either victory with two runs allowed in six innings and eight strikeouts.

If Eflin can pitch like that again, the Phillies can win.

Why the Nationals can pay on the MLB lines

Washington started a fire sale earlier on Tuesday and then responded with a nice victory, perhaps motivated by the departures of Daniel Murphy and Matt Adams.

Where the Nationals go from here remains to be seen, but they are back at the .500 mark and will see Stephen Strasburg (6-7, 3.90 ERA) go to the mound for the first time since July 20.

Susan Walsh/Associated Press

Strasburg surrendered six runs and eight hits in 4.2 innings of an 8-5 home loss to the Atlanta Braves in that last start and then proceeded to go on the disabled list with a neck injury.

The extra rest should only benefit him in this spot, and he went 6-1 with a 2.36 ERA in 10 starts versus Philadelphia between 2015 and 2017.

Smart betting pick

As great as Strasburg has been in the past, he has not been good in 2018. He has lost in each of his past three starts, so it is extremely difficult to trust him as such a big favorite.

The betting value is on Eflin and the Phillies, who had won eight of the previous 12 meetings in the series before Tuesday, according to the OddsShark MLB Database.

MLB betting trends

The total has gone over in five of Philadelphia's last seven games.

Washington is 3-6 in its last nine games.

The total has gone over in five of Washington's last six games at home.

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.