Fantasy Football 2018: Best Strategy for Each Pick in 12-Team Mock Drafts
There is no perfect fantasy mock draft, because real drafts are unpredictable. It's hard to account for a roomful of players with different strategies, different rankings and often unpredictable decision-making. Often, your own strategy has to adjust on the fly.
So keeping that in mind, I decided to do a 12-man mock draft for non-PPR leagues with most of the teams utilizing a different strategy. Hopefully, this approach to a mock draft will help you determine your own best strategy for every pick. Remember, there isn't some pie-in-the-sky, perfect strategy for every pick. A "perfect pick" is based entirely on your strategy, your draft board and the options available to you.
TOP NEWS
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Colts Release Kenny Moore
Projecting Every NFL Team's Starting Lineup 🔮
Rookie WRs Who Will Outplay Their Draft Value 📈
Finally, it should be noted that I'm not saying if you fall in a certain slot that you should employ a certain strategy. The idea instead is to simulate the randomness of a draft and to give you advice if you employ a particular approach. The strategies were arbitrarily assigned to a draft slot. For reference, my own personal approach when I draft is most closely mirrored by the Flexible Strategy you'll see employed for five of the teams belows.
OK, with the explanations out of the way, let's get to the mocking.
Team 1 (Strategy: Best Available Player)
1. Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams (1)
24. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (19)
25. Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders (24)
48. Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears (46)
49. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos (47)
Look, I'll never recommend players go with the "best available player no matter what" strategy, for the very reason that I wouldn't want to end up with four wide receivers in my first five selections. This is generally what happens to players who select the auto-draft option.
But there is the school of thought out there that you can always trade these players later, and you're guaranteed to get good value from every pick. That's clear here, with Hilton in particular coming in as a great value.
Do I love the way this draft started? No. Would I recommend this strategy? No. But if you choose to go this route—and some people do—these are the best players you are going to find per pick., in my opinion.
Team 2 (Strategy: 3-RB)
2. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2)
23. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings (21)
26. LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills (28)
47. Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns (43)
50. Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots (50)
This is a strategy I'm more apt to get behind. I believe you can wait until the later rounds on quarterback and still get value, while tight end you could likely address in the next two rounds and grab a solid TE1.
But this team's core is really strong. You have a RB1 (Bell) and two RB2s (Cook, McCoy) here, locking down a position that doesn't have a ton of depth. In Gordon and Hogan, you don't have the safest options at wideout, but they each present strong upside. Gordon, when he's on the field, produces like a WR1. Hogan will be Tom Brady's top option out wide this year and should settle into WR2 value.
I'm not a fan of stringent philosophies, in general, but drafting three running backs with your first three picks is one I can get behind, especially if the board falls nicely like it did here for Team 2. None of those players were major stretches, in my opinion.
With amazing depth at quarterback and strong depth at wideout, don't be afraid to load up on running backs early.
Team 3 (Strategy: Flexible)
3. David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals (3)
22. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (17)
27. Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings (25)
46. Alex Collins, RB, Baltimore Ravens (49)
51. Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions (51)
My main philosophy is to be flexible during your draft, seeking value at every pick while prioritizing positions with less depth early in the draft. I don't love the way the board fell for this draft slot, with Collins being a pretty shaky RB2.
Wide receiver is a position of strength, though, and this team can easily address running back, quarterback and tight end in the next three rounds. Plus, Johnson gives this team a player with fantasy MVP potential, so all in all this is a good start.
Team 4 (Strategy: Draft Safe Players)
4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys (4)
21. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons (22)
28. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (29)
45. Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns (45)
52. Brandin Cooks, WR, Los Angeles Rams (52)
Some fantasy players are willing to sacrifice a bit of upside to nab a sure thing. That's the philosophy of Team 4.
Elliott, Freeman and Kelce are about as safe as they come with the first three picks. Elliott was an RB1 in non-PPR leagues last year despite missing six games to suspension, while Freeman has at least 1,100 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns in three straight seasons.
Kelce has never had less than 800 receiving yards or four touchdowns—breaking through with eight scores last year—while Landry is a receptions machine who has 985 or more receiving yards in three straight seasons.
There's some mystery surrounding Cooks, as he'll be in his first year with the Rams (and on his third team in as many seasons). But keep in mind that Cooks has registered at least 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in three straight years.
Also keep in mind that Jared Goff is a downgrade from Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Cooks probably won't be a WR1 this year. But if he's your WR2, you could do worse. He'll post solid numbers.
Team 5 (Strategy: Flexible)
5. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (5)
20. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (15)
29. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (26)
44. Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins (48)
53. Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos (53)
Barkley has immense upside, which I'm willing to gamble on at No. 5, even at the expense of passing up on a sure thing like Antonio Brown. And this team has two of the steadiest options around at wide receiver in Green and Fitzgerald, locking down that position nicely.
I don't think Drake is a sure thing as a RB2, however, especially with Frank Gore certain to siphon some workload. So Team 5 is going to look to immediately add another running back to attempt to mitigate any risk with Drake.
Freeman brings his own question marks, given that he's a rookie and has Devontae Booker to contend with, but... c'mon, he's already better than Booker and is going to be the main man in Denver this season.
Team 6 (Strategy: Target Players from Top Offenses)
6. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (6)
19. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers (16)
30. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (32)
43. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (44)
54. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints (55)
I think this is a risky strategy, but I'm not mad at the start of Team 6's draft outside of the lack of running backs. Brown is arguably the safest player in fantasy football at this point. Adams is the top wide receiver in a Rodgers-led offense. Rodgers has thrown for at least 4,000 yards six times in his career and 30 or more touchdowns six times as well.
Jeffery is Philadelphia's top receiver, though his injury situation is worth monitoring. And while Ingram is suspended for the first three games, he's rushed for over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons and had 12 rushing scores last year. Once he returns from injury, he'll be a beast.
There's a certain amount of comfort in chasing players from offenses that should be dangerous in 2018. I'm not sure you should build your entire draft around this mentality, but for those who do, this wouldn't be the worst way to start a draft. Team 6 better nail their running back sleepers, however.
Team 7 (Strategy: Flexible)
7. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (7)
18. Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears (18)
31. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (27)
42. Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (41)
55. Ronald Jones III, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (54)
Team 7 is going to have to focus hard on nailing some wideout sleepers in the middle rounds, but it's hard to complain about a core built around Newton at quarterback and Kamara and Howard at running back. There's a ton of upside in those three players alone.
Hill remains one of football's most dangerous home-run hitters, capable of scoring every time he touches the ball, but his touches make take a bit of a hit with Sammy Watkins now in Kansas City and a new quarterback under center in Patrick Mahomes. Still, the Chiefs would be wise to find creative ways to get him the ball.
Jones is a risk, as he hasn't been super impressive to this point. But he has much more talent than Peyton Barber, so he should carve out himself a nice niche in Tampa Bay's offense this season. Expect him to eventual win the feature role.
Team 8 (Strategy: Target High-Upside Players)
8. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (11)
17. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20)
32. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (30)
41. Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans (42)
56. Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks (58)
This team is swinging for the fences, and they may send one into the upper deck with this start to the draft. Generally, I believe in taking safe players in the first two or three rounds, even at the expense of some upside. You just don't want to strike out on those picks. But this team is all about taking some calculated risks.
If the Falcons actually prioritize Jones in the red zone, for once, he'll be the top wideout in fantasy. Remember, he has four straight seasons with at least 1,400 receiving yards. Not even Pittsburgh's Brown can say that.
Evans is another player who has enormous upside. He's only one season removed from posting 1,321 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. If Jameis Winston improves his level of play once he returns from suspension, look out.
As for Mixon, he'll be the feature back in Cincinnati this year and could make a major jump up the fantasy rankings if he's used as a workhorse behind the team's revamped offensive line. If there's any running back outside of the elite capable of making the biggest leap forward this year, it's Mixon.
Watson was the best player in fantasy last year when he was healthy. So that's enough said there.
Finally, Carson has been repeatedly praised by Pete Carroll and been more impressive during training camp than Rashaad Penny (at least before the rookie was injured). It's time to start viewing him as Seattle's top option at running back and as a player who post big numbers if the Seahawks once again emphasize a power-running offense.
Team 9: Flexible
9. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (8)
16. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (14)
33. Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers (35)
40. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (40)
57. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (57)
Solid start here, though Team 9 will really need to focus on adding depth at running back and wide receiver in the upcoming rounds. But Fournette is a solid RB1, with McKinnon having the talent and the role in San Francisco to grow into an RB2 designation.
Allen, when healthy, is one of fantasy's best receivers, while Smith-Schuster had a superb rookie year and should only improve. Add in Wilson, routinely a safe bet for fantasy owners, and Team 9 is off to a strong start. The focus going forward for this team will be adding more running back and wideout depth before looking for a value at tight end.
Team 10: QB First
10. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (31)
15. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants (10)
34. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (36)
39. Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings (38)
58. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders (59)
Look, I can't in good faith recommend you draft in either of the first two rounds. There's just so much depth at the position you can address quarterback later in the draft and still get superb value.
But some people are going to focus on landing a quarterback first, so this is the section for them.
Frankly the board fell nicely for Team 10 in the second round, with Beckham a steal at No. 15. From there, this team was able to focus on running back and wide receiver, though I'm not in love with having McCaffrey as an RB1 and Lynch as an RB2. It's precisely why at No. 10 I'd rather focus on a position other than quarterback—Team 10 might have been able to get Brady at No. 34.
It's your draft. Approach it how you want. But think long and hard before selecting a quarterback in the first two rounds. It simply isn't a great strategy outside of two-QB leagues.
Team 11: Flexible
11. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans (9)
14. Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (13)
35. Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (33)
38. Jay Ajayi, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (39)
59. Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans (61)
I love the first three picks for this team, though adding a tight end early means I think Team 11 should wait awhile on a quarterback to rally nail down some wideout and even more running back depth.
Ajayi and Miller aren't the safest pair of running backs for the RB2 and RB3 slot, as Ajayi is in a committee and Miller likely will lose some touches to D'onta Foreman this season (and has a pretty low ceiling anyway). But by having both, you've given yourself the option to start either one depending on the matchup. Versatility and depth are always important for any fantasy team. This team is in the beginning stages of having both.
Team 12: TE First
12. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots (23)
13. Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Rams (12)
36. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (34)
37. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (37)
60. Marvin Jones Jr. WR, Detroit Lions (60)
I don't mind this strategy as much as the QB First approach, for the simple fact that there's less depth at tight end and Gronkowski's ceiling at the position is the sort of production you would get form an elite wide receiver. When Gronk is at his best, he offers more value over the other options at tight end than most players.
And after that is a solid draft. Gordon is a solid, consistent RB1 who has at least 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. Baldwin has been either an WR1 or WR2 for three straight seasons. Henry is in line for a breakout year with DeMarco Murray off the roster, even if Dion Lewis should see touches as well (but perhaps in more of a change-of-pace role).
Finally, Jones was one of the surprises of fantasy last season and has become a field-stretching weapon for Matt Stafford. This team isn't the sexiest collection of talent around and definitely needs more depth at wideout and running back—that's the risk you run if you're going to target Gronkowski in the first round—but there's potential here.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")