New York Mets vs. New York Yankees: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

Two of baseball's best pitchers will be on display Monday when the New York Yankees (74-43) host the New York Mets (49-66) as solid home favorites at the sportsbooks.

Despite posting a losing record, Jacob deGrom (6-7, 1.77 ERA) has been great for the Mets this year, and he is in better form than American League wins leader Luis Severino (15-5, 3.11 ERA) for the Yankees.

MLB betting line: The Yankees opened as -200 favorites (wager $200 to win $100); the total is at seven runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 3.0-2.3, Mets (MLB picks on every game)

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Why the Mets can pay on the MLB lines

One word: deGrom. The 30-year-old righty has the lowest ERA in baseball, and he is coming off an outstanding performance against the Cincinnati Reds last time out on Wednesday.

The 30-year-old pitched six scoreless innings in an 8-0 victory, walking one batter and striking out 10 to end a personal three-game losing streak.

During that skid, he also gave up three runs or less in each of the three starts with three walks and 24 strikeouts. The problem is, the Mets totaled just three runs combined in those games.

Why the Yankees can pay on the MLB lines

Offensively, the Yankees are obviously the superior team, and that helped Severino break a three-game losing streak of his own in his last outing.

David Banks/Associated Press

The 24-year-old Dominican gave up three runs and seven hits in seven innings of a 7-3 win on Wednesday after seeing his team get outscored 21-12 in his previous three starts combined.

Before his skid, the Yankees had won six straight times with him toeing the rubber along with 16 of 17.

Severino was 12-1 in those 17 games, with the Yankees winning 12 of them by two runs or more to cover the runline at a 71 percent clip.

Smart betting pick

The Mets have won two of the past three meetings with the Yankees after a six-game series losing streak, according to the OddsShark MLB Database. In other words, they have a chance here, especially with deGrom on the mound.

Severino has seen his ERA rise more than a run from 1.98 on July 1, which is concerning for the Yankees down the stretch.

Take the underdog value on the Mets with deGrom in this spot.

MLB betting trends

The Mets are 4-2 in their last six games.

The total has gone over in six of the Yankees' last eight games at home against the Mets.

The Mets are 2-7 in their last nine games against the Yankees.

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.