Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The Seattle Mariners (65-50) begin a crucial divisional series with the World Series champion Houston Astros (73-42) on Thursday as solid road underdogs at the sportsbooks.

The American League West-leading Astros have won two straight games, while the Mariners have lost two in a row, as they continue to chase the Oakland Athletics for the second and final AL wild-card spot.

MLB betting line: The Astros opened as -145 favorites (wager $145 to win $100); the total is at seven runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 3.9-2.2, Astros (MLB picks on every game)

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Why the Mariners can pay on the MLB lines

Seattle may not be playing in desperation mode yet, but this is the perfect time to start getting hot in an effort to catch Oakland.

The Mariners would love nothing more than to start this series off with a big victory, and they will have ace James Paxton (9-5, 3.51 ERA) on the mound looking to put together his third straight quality start since the MLB All-Star break.

The 29-year-old has allowed a combined three runs and 11 hits in splitting his last two outings totaling 14 innings, walking one batter and striking out 15. More importantly, though, he is a perfect 3-0 versus Houston this season with a sparkling 0.87 ERA.

Why the Astros can pay on the MLB lines

The Astros are well on their way to earning back-to-back division titles, and they rank first in baseball with a plus-202 run differential, even ahead of the MLB-leading Boston Red Sox.

They have also dominated this matchup with Seattle recently, winning 12 of the past 15 meetings, according to the OddsShark MLB Database.

The three losses all came against Paxton, but Justin Verlander (11-6, 2.19 ERA) has also been very good versus the Mariners over the previous three seasons.

Michael Wyke/Associated Press

While he has not faced them this year, the 35-year-old went 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in six starts against them between 2015 and 2017, limiting them to a .215 batting average during that stretch.

Smart betting pick

Seattle appears to be a solid value play in this spot considering Paxton has been awesome versus Houston this season.

This is arguably the biggest series of 2018 for the Mariners, who cannot afford to fall further behind in the race for a wild-card berth.

The Astros are a great team, but look for them to stay winless against Paxton here.

MLB betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Seattle's last eight games.

Houston is 1-4 in its last five games at home.

The total has gone over in four of Houston's last 5 games at home.

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.