Bold Predictions for MLB Trade Deadline's Biggest Deals
Bold prediction: Tommy Pham will lead the Tampa Bay Rays to a 2018 World Series triumph.
OK, so that's too bold. Although the Rays are mathematically alive, FanGraphs allots them a 0.5 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Even a daring prophecy must remain in the plausible realm of possibility to hold any weight.
Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline will spark major ramifications for this season and beyond. Given the sheer volume of transactions, some naturally flew under the radar. While last year's pennant winners made moves of bigger stature, each landed an unheralded contributor poised to make a major mark this fall.
In one case, the deals not made were the ones that will speak the loudest. Maybe that's cheating, but since when do bold predictions have rules?
And in all seriousness, the Rays made a shrewd move by prying Pham away from the St. Louis Cardinals. Let's find a more reasonable way of framing that trade while honoring the spirit of this tried-and-true premise.
Rays Flip Tommy Pham (For Much Better Return) Within Next Year
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Hours before dealing Chris Archer, the Rays acquired Tommy Pham from the Cardinals. Although a peculiar move on the surface, they simply pounced on a superb value that will pay major dividends.
The Cardinals had a crowded outfield, but nobody identified Pham as a trade candidate or reported any rumors suggesting the possibility. Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, even the 30-year-old was blindsided by the news.
"I was shocked on all fronts," Pham said. "They have a lot of outfield depth. I'm in the clubhouse, I can see that. There's Harrison (Bader) and (Tyler) O'Neill. I remember being in their shoes. I can't be mad at that."
Depth aside, he was one of three players to collect 20 homers and 20 steals while batting at least .300 with a .400 on-base percentage and .500 slugging percentage last year. The other two were Mike Trout and AL MVP Jose Altuve.
Need another reason to like the move for Tampa Bay? This offseason will mark his first year of arbitration, meaning he's not free-agent eligible until after the 2021 campaign. Even if he never again sniffs 2017's 6.1 WAR, the frugal franchise will happily accept a league-average starter who currently possesses a 1.5 WAR.
Yet there's reason to anticipate improvement. Only six qualified hitters have notched a higher hard-hit percentage than Pham's 47.5. Per Statcast data on Baseball Savant, his .369 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) hovers 50 points above his actual wOBA.
The Cardinals somehow found a way to sell low shortly after a former bench player's age-29 breakout. The Rays won't compete with the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox unless Pham can also pitch, so don't be surprised when they flip him as soon as this offseason for a higher return.
Chris Archer Contends for 2019 NL Cy Young Award
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A late-July hot streak motivated the Pittsburgh Pirates to act out of character and move young, major league players under long-term control (Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow) for Archer. Four games away from a wild-card spot with a minus-two run differential, they will likely reconsider this grand move as postseason spectators.
The payoff will arrive next year, when Archer reclaims his ace status atop Pittsburgh's rotation.
What makes this claim bold? The former Rays righty has registered a 4.10 ERA since the start of 2016. He has also compiled the fifth-most strikeouts behind a quartet of top-tier studs, but that hasn't stopped opponents from making loud contact. Few aces join him on this list of MLB's highest hard-hit rates.
Pittsburgh is betting on rediscovering the Archer who submitted a 3.23 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 2015. Moving from the AL East to an NL pitcher's park should help. So will pitching coach Ray Searage, who helped A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ and Ivan Nova improve away from the difficult division.
Per Rotowire's Jason Collette, Archer has authored a career 4.02 ERA against the AL East and a 3.40 ERA versus everyone else. He boasts a 3.29 ERA and 10.5 strikeouts per nine (K/9) in interleague play.
Besides, the 29-year-old was turning a corner with a 3.13 ERA in his last 11 starts for Tampa Bay. Beating out Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola and all of the NL's finest aces for the 2019 Cy Young Award is a lofty goal, but Archer has the upside to make it happen (or at least factor into the discussion) in a friendlier pitching environment.
Cole Hamels Starts Game 1 of NLDS for Cubs
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Plans can change in a hurry. The original idea here was "Cole Hamels won't make the Chicago Cubs' postseason rotation." Now, the deadline acquisition is opening the National League Division Series.
Of course, there's no guarantee the Cubs make it that far. They lead the Milwaukee Brewers—who hold a two-game wild-card edge—by just one game in the NL Central. Since they also flaunt the league's highest scoring margin (plus-105), let's give them their third straight division crown.
The reason behind nearly shunning Hamels from their postseason plans? No qualified starter has yielded a higher hard-hit rate than his 44.3 percent. His velocity is down, but a 4.53 ERA and 5.04 fielding independent pitching (FIP) are way up.
However, saying a team's fourth starter won't make a playoff start isn't particularly bold. It also felt contradictory to praise Archer while ignoring similar signs of a Hamels turnaround. The 34-year-old southpaw, who wields a 9.28 K/9 and 2.69 road ERA this season, evacuated the Texas Rangers' unforgiving park to rejoin the NL, where he last flourished with the Philadelphia Phillies.
He wrote a promising opening chapter to that redemption arc in his team debut. In Wednesday night's win at Pittsburgh, he allowed one run (unearned) over five frames with his most strikeouts (nine) in a single start since April 3.
Also steering this new path: Jon Lester has enjoyed the most beneficial discrepancy between his ERA (3.22) and FIP (4.66). His regression began with a 6.46 July ERA, so his stock will diminish by October. Jose Quintana, meanwhile, has an alarming 28 strikeouts and 21 walks over his past eight outings.
In this scenario, Kyle Hendricks pitches Game 2 to space out the southpaws after a rejuvenated Hamels begins a best-of-five series. Or maybe he doesn't make a postseason start. These are bold predictions for a reason.
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Nationals Win NL East
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The biggest deal the Washington Nationals made? Not making any big deals.
Sure, selling their pending free agents made sense. Mathematically speaking, it was the proper call for a team that entered Tuesday 52-53. They can reward management's trust by peaking at the right time.
Whether a statement of intent, coincidental timing or simply a function of facing the New York Mets, they plastered 25 runs hours after the deadline passed without a stir beyond Brandon Kintzler going to the Cubs. Two more wins propelled the Nationals above .500 and five games behind the first-place Phillies.
With 16 remaining games against the Phillies and Atlanta Braves, they're not solely reliant on the baseball gods to narrow the NL East gap. Those matchups will ultimately validate or smear their decision to stand pat, but they also have 15 chances to beat up on the Mets and Miami Marlins.
A comeback is far from a pipe dream. Not if Stephen Strasburg comes back strong from a neck injury. Not if Tanner Roark has turned the corner after registering 18 strikeouts to one run allowed in his past two starts. Not if they get two months from the Daniel Murphy who batted .347/.410/.569 in July.
They will also need a seismic finish from Bryce Harper, who wields a .391 xwOBA, per Baseball Savant, despite batting .230. Among 49 qualified hitters with a hard-hit rate of at least 40.0 percent, only Joey Gallo has a lower batting average than Harper.
FanGraphs' algorithm suggests this prediction is not bold enough. It gives Washington a 47.0 percent probability of reaching the postseason. It's hard for a team with Harper, Max Scherzer, Strasburg, Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and Juan Soto to fill the underdog role.
Ryan Pressly Is October's Breakout Bullpen Star
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The Houston Astros nearly nailed the deadline before making one move too many.
As the reigning champions who since bolstered their roster by acquiring Gerrit Cole, they had no need to act out of desperation. An unheralded bullpen upgrade or two would have sufficed, and they found the perfect option in Ryan Pressly.
The 29-year-old righty cost Houston right-handed pitcher Jorge Alcala and outfielder Gilberto Celestino, whom MLB.com respectively ranks No. 11 and 14 in the Minnesota Twins' farm system. Based on Pressly's 3.42 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, that's a generous package for a depth piece. Yet he should amount to much more during the Astros' title defense.
His 12.6 K/9 ranks 13th among all qualified relievers behind Brad Hand—sent to the Cleveland Indians with Adam Cimber for top catching prospect Francisco Mejia—and Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez. Only eight relievers have induced more chasing of pitches outside the strike zone, and just four (all 2018 All-Stars) have generated a higher swinging-strike percentage.
Since the Astros' stacked bullpen remains light on southpaws, a .298 wOBA against lefties will make Pressly a pivotal part of its October plans. If only they had stopped there.
Brian Dozier Powers Dodgers Back to World Series
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That Manny Machado guy will help the Los Angeles Dodgers preserve a competitive NL West, but don't sleep on Brian Dozier.
Before the Dodgers acquired him, this writer thought the Twins must have either made him unavailable or wanted an unreasonably high return. Why wouldn't the Brewers pick up the slugging second baseman instead of briefly moving Travis Shaw there so Mike Moustakas can play third? He also would have made sense for the Red Sox, who instead pivoted to Ian Kinsler.
Their loss is the Dodgers' gain. Months from now, he'll be regarded as a main reason they returned to the World Series.
After averaging 32 home runs and 106 runs scored from 2014 to 2017, the 31-year-old has faltered to a .229/.309/.415 slash line with 17 long balls. Without any glaring changes in his batted-ball profile, his struggles prior to Tuesday's deadline may have a simple explanation: It wasn't August yet.
Dozier has contributed his best results in the season's penultimate month, during which he has posted a career .381 wOBA. He pummeled pitchers to the finish line with a .405 and .410 second-half wOBA in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
Making his Dodgers debut on Aug. 1, he fittingly went 3-for-4 with a double and home run.
There's far less data to examine his postseason efficacy, but Dozier went yard in last year's AL Wild Game, his one and only playoff bout. He should receive a prolonged opportunity to ride his hot bat deep into the fall.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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