Updated Post-Deadline 2018 MLB Postseason Predictions
OK, now it's time to get serious about predicting the 2018 Major League Baseball postseason.
In the wake of one of the busiest non-waiver trade deadlines in memory, contenders across MLB are locked and loaded for the stretch run and beyond. Although there are bound to be a few more trades in August, this is largely how teams will look in October.
Now comes our reassessment of the playoff races in the American League and National League, as well as for how things might play out in each postseason series.
In other words, it's time for a (surely doomed) attempt to pre-emptively crown a champion.
The American League Field
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AL East Winner: Boston Red Sox
The New York Yankees' deadline haul of Zach Britton, J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn beats the Boston Red Sox's haul of Nathan Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler.
All the same, Boston is ticketed for its third straight AL East title.
The Red Sox own MLB's best record (76-34) by a comfortable margin. And while they've developed some injury concerns—Chris Sale's inflamed shoulder, especially—they still mostly resemble the well-rounded juggernaut they've been all season.
For their part, the Yankees sorely miss Aaron Judge (wrist) and Gary Sanchez (groin). They're also having trouble with their starting rotation, which has a 5.25 ERA over the last 30 days.
Although they won't run away from their bitter rivals, the Red Sox should hold on to their AL East lead.
AL Central Winner: Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians have had a disappointing season, but two things are working in their favor.
One is they have no natural predators within the AL Central. The Minnesota Twins were the only team that stood a chance of taking the Indians down, but they started slowly and traded off many of their best players (Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar) ahead of the deadline.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is better than it has been all season. The team's bullpen got a massive upgrade via the Brad Hand and Adam Cimber trade. Likewise, its outfield got a solid upgrade in the Leonys Martin swap.
Just like that, they avoided the possibility of a total collapse.
AL West Winner: Houston Astros
The Houston Astros hit a wall in July, and they're still waiting on Jose Altuve (knee) and Carlos Correa (back) to come off the disabled list. The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics couldn't ask for a better opening.
However, the Astros will get hot again.
Altuve and Correa will be back, after all, and they'll join a deeper team than the one they left. The Martin Maldonado trade gave the Astros catching depth. The Ryan Pressly swap boosted their bullpen. Although it's a public relations nightmare, the Roberto Osuna trade should also help Houston's pen.
There's also a question of how much upside the Mariners and A's have left. Both clubs have notable weaknesses in their rotations, which could come back to bite them in the dog days.
AL Wild Card No. 1: New York Yankees
Even if the Yankees fail to catch the Red Sox in the AL East race, they'll fall back on the AL's top wild-card spot.
They hold a comfortable lead for the No. 1 wild card, and they got what they need to keep that up. Their starting pitching may limit the height of their ceiling, but their overpowering bullpen and home run-happy offense will ensure their floor stays high.
AL Wild Card No. 2: Oakland Athletics
The A's only have a one game lead on the Mariners for the AL's second wild-card spot. Go back to June 16, however, and one of these teams is trending better than the other:
- Mariners: 18-21
- Athletics: 30-10
The best reason to doubt the A's has to do with their rotation, which is short on reliability outside staff ace Sean Manaea.
But the Mariners rotation is no great shakes, either, and their lineup and bullpen aren't clicking as well as Oakland's. To make matters worse, the Mariners are set to play a brutal schedule between August 9 and September 2. Out of 22 games, they'll play 16 on the road and 20 against contenders.
The A's should finish off their rousing comeback.
The National League Field
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NL East Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals are all within five games of each other in the NL East. Any of the three could get hot and take control.
The Phillies, however, have both the inside track and the best team.
They've had the division's most reliable starting rotation all season, and both their bullpen and offense should finish strong. Shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and, when he returns from a hamstring injury, catcher Wilson Ramos are substantial offensive upgrades at positions that needed them. Aaron Loup is a fine addition to a bullpen that's already hot.
The Braves, meanwhile, are a roughly .500 team since May 15, and they went strictly for upside plays at the deadline. And as tempting as it is to put faith in Washington's star power, it hasn't earned any faith in 2018.
NL Central Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Although the Chicago Cubs are positioned for their third straight NL Central title, neither the Milwaukee Brewers nor the Pittsburgh Pirates are to be taken lightly.
The Brewers have been near the top of the division all season, and they've just added Joakim Soria, Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Schoop. The Pirates have won 16 of 21 since July 8, and now they have Chris Archer and Keone Kela.
The Cubs, of course, got Cole Hamels and Brandon Kintzler. But their fate is more so hinged to when and how strongly Yu Darvish (elbow), Kris Bryant (shoulder) and Brandon Morrow (biceps) return from injuries. For now, the fates of all three are up in the air.
Clearly, the Brewers and Pirates have an opening. Since the former have the better record and deeper roster, they're the pick.
NL West Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
As of now, the NL West race is a toss-up between the Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies.
The Rockies may be on borrowed time. By doing virtually nothing at the deadline, they've opened themselves up to regression to the sub-.500 club they were before June 28.
The D-backs were more active at the deadline, acquiring Escobar, Matt Andriese, Jake Diekman and Brad Ziegler. But none of those additions are as big as the Dodgers' trade for Manny Machado. Throw in Dozier and John Axford, and they arguably made better use of the deadline than any other team.
It also can't be ignored that the Dodgers are 45-23 since May 17. They're not perfect, but they're a hot team that just made itself better.
NL Wild Card No. 1: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have their work cut out for them in holding on to the NL Central lead. But even if they tread water for the rest of the season, they can still nab the NL's top wild-card spot.
Even without a healthy, productive Bryant, the Cubs still lead the National League in OPS and runs scored. That speaks to the sheer depth they have in their lineup. And while their pitching has bent, it has yet to break. Hamels and Kintzler will help ensure it stays that way.
NL Wild Card No. 2: Arizona Diamondbacks
We're left with the Braves, Nationals, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies and perhaps the San Francisco Giants in a race for a single playoff spot.
Survey says: the Diamondbacks. They're the best team of the bunch right now, and they should stay that way.
Escobar's arrival and Steven Souza Jr.'s return to form will help the Snakes' offense avoid another horrible slump like the one that happened in May. For their part, Diekman and Ziegler will help the team's bullpen pull out of the slump it's been in for the last month or so.
ALDS Predictions
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(WC1) New York Yankees over (1) Boston Red Sox
- Season Series: Tied 5-5
The Yankees shouldn't have much trouble dispatching the A's in the American League Wild Card Game. It'll be a case of MLB's hardest-throwing team overwhelming MLB's most heat-averse offense.
Then the Yankees will get revenge on the Red Sox for the 2004 American League Championship Series.
The Yankees ended up on the short end of their last postseason meeting with Boston because they basically ran out of pitching. That won't happen this time. New York is rich in quality arms, particularly in a bullpen with Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, David Robertson and Dellin Betances.
That bullpen will work to the Yankees' advantage against a Red Sox offense that isn't nearly as good against relief pitching (.745 OPS) as it is against starting pitching (.821 OPS). Assuming Judge and Sanchez are healthy come October, the Yankees will have the bats to outslug the Red Sox anyway.
Besides, these Yankees are made to slay dragons. Their 32-19 record against winning teams is the best of any club.
(2) Houston Astros over (3) Cleveland Indians
- Season Series: HOU 4-3
The Indians, meanwhile, are the opposite of battle-tested. They're the only winning team within the AL Central. When they have played winning clubs from elsewhere, they've gone 17-24.
This isn't the only reason they'll be easy pickings for the defending World Series champions.
Houston's starting trio of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton is one of few in MLB that can match up with Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco. The Astros will also bring a deeper offense and bullpen to the party.
In short, one of these teams is simply better than the other.
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NLDS Predictions
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(1) Milwaukee Brewers over (WC2) Arizona Diamondbacks
- Season Series: MIL 5-1
The National League Wild Card Game will feature two well-matched teams. But since the Diamondbacks stand a better chance of getting a good start out of Zack Greinke or Patrick Corbin than the Cubs do out of Jon Lester or Kyle Hendricks, they'll advance.
Only to lose to the Brewers in the National League Division Series.
The Brewers have a deeper offense than the D-backs, who lean heavily on Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. Milwaukee also has a deeper bullpen, which will be especially relevant in this matchup. Arizona's .665 OPS against relievers is one of the worst in MLB.
Ultimately, Milwaukee will move on to its first National League Championship Series since 2011.
(2) Los Angeles Dodgers over (3) Philadelphia Phillies
- Season Series: PHI 4-3
Although the Cubs technically boast the NL's best offense, the honor may realistically belong to the Dodgers. They've averaged five runs per game with a .779 OPS since May 17.
Despite their recent improvements, the Phillies can't hope to hang with an offense like that in a possible NLDS matchup. They'll have to out-pitch the Dodgers.
Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta will do their part in this regard, but there's a shortage of standouts in between them and ace closer Seranthony Dominguez. The Dodgers, on the other hand, seemingly have an arm for every occasion in between Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen.
Plus, the managers could be a factor. Between Phillies newcomer Gabe Kapler and Dodgers veteran Dave Roberts, the former is more likely to commit a critical foul-up.
In any event, the Dodgers will punch their ticket to their third straight NLCS appearance.
LCS Predictions
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(WC1) New York Yankees over (2) Houston Astros
- Season Series: NYY 5-2
Although the Astros defeated the Yankees in last year's American League Championship Series, victory was very much within New York's grasp. It led 3-2 at one point.
This time, the Yankees have what they need to finish their unfinished business.
Unlike in 2017, New York won't be up against a historically great Astros offense. Moreover, Houston's bats won't be as good a match for New York's heat. The Astros were MLB's best against 95-plus mph fastballs in 2017. In 2018, they're only tied for 10th.
The Yankees' own offense, meanwhile, is deeper than the one the Astros faced last October. It also specializes in crushing starting pitchers. That should spell bad news for Verlander, Cole, Morton and the entirety of the Astros.
(2) Los Angeles Dodgers over (1) Milwaukee Brewers
- Season Series: LAD 4-3
The Brewers' overcoming the mighty Dodgers to reach their first World Series since 1982 would be a heck of a story.
Well, maybe next year.
Unlike the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers don't have much trouble handling relief pitchers. That could render Milwaukee's single biggest advantage irrelevant, thereby forcing the Brewers to match up with the Dodgers in other ways.
Since the Brewers lack a starter as good as Kershaw or Ross Stripling, a series win won't come via that route. And as deep as Milwaukee's offense has become, it doesn't have the same depth and firepower found in Los Angeles' lineup.
Thus, the Dodgers will head back to the World Series.
World Series Prediction
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(WC1) New York Yankees over (2) Los Angeles Dodgers
That celebratory shout you just heard was executives at Major League Baseball getting hyped at the prospect of a Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series.
At any rate, New York's pitchers would have their work cut out for them in silencing L.A.'s hitters. Beyond being good against relievers, they're also good against high-velocity fastballs.
And yet, Yankees hurlers can solve the latter issue by not throwing fastballs.
They actually have MLB's lowest fastball rate despite their radar-gun readings. Since Dodgers hitters aren't nearly as good against breaking and off-speed pitches, that could be their undoing.
Unlike the Phillies and Brewers, the Yankees have more than enough offense to tango with the Dodgers. They also lean right-handed with Judge, Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar. Having the platoon advantage can help them against four key Dodgers pitchers: Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood and Scott Alexander.
Because the Yankees are ticketed for a better regular-season record than the Dodgers, they would also have home-field advantage in this series. And for them, it really is a considerable advantage.
All things considered, the Yankees had better make room for World Series trophy No. 28.
Stats are accurate through play on Wednesday, August 1, and are courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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