Ranking the 10 Likeliest MLB Stars to Be Traded This Offseason
MLB's trade waters will soon calm after weeks of unrelenting activity, but the hot stove never turns off entirely.
As a result of baseball's expanding power divide, more teams than usual capitulated the season early. With only a waiver deal or prospect promotion to keep their interest, fans of floundering squads will already start thinking about offseason maneuvering.
What better way to spend the days following a busy non-waiver deadline than to keep discussing trade scenarios?
The calculus changes over the offseason, when every team tied at 0-0 can harbor hopes of a turnaround if it dreams hard enough. There won't be a handful of sellers pressured to ship all of their pending free agents to the highest bidder. Then again, some bottom-feeding teams not blinded by misleading optimism will understand their grim outlook and make winter moves before sacrificing value next summer.
The following offseason trade candidates tend to meet at least one of the following guidelines:
- A player on a non-contending team whose contract expires in one or two years.
- Someone in danger of getting stuck in a positional logjam or losing favor with his current club.
- His name came up in pre-deadline trade rumors (often for one of two reasons above).
Note that these are not the 10 likeliest players to move this winter. Nobody wants to read a list full of fringe relievers and bench hitters, so we're highlighting players of consequence. However, they are ranked in order of ascending likelihood of getting traded rather than value.
Honorable Mentions
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Long Shots:
Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Khris Davis, OF, Oakland Athletics
Corey Dickerson, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets
Michael Fulmer, SP, Detroit Tigers
Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees
Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves
Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets
Ugly Contracts:
Jay Bruce, OF, New York Mets
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
Shin-Soo Choo, OF/DH, Texas Rangers
Alex Cobb, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Danny Duffy, SP, Kansas City Royals
Russell Martin, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Kendrys Morales, DH, Toronto Blue Jays
Mark Trumbo, OF/DH, Baltimore Orioles
Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Detroit Tigers
Missed the Cut:
Kyle Barraclough, RP, Miami Marlins
Starlin Castro, 2B, Miami Marlins
Wilmer Flores, INF, New York Mets
Mike Fiers, SP, Detroit Tigers
Avisail Garcia, OF, Chicago White Sox
Mychal Givens, RP, Baltimore Orioles
Shane Greene, RP, Detroit Tigers
Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres
Craig Stammen, RP, San Diego Padres
10. Raisel Iglesias, RP, Cincinnati Reds
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The Cincinnati Reds are baseball's best last-place team. However, they also have the misfortune of playing with four postseason contenders in the NL Central.
Despite rampant speculation, Raisel Iglesias remains their closer throughout the rest of 2018. The 28-year-old righty will make $5.7 million in each of the next two seasons, a bargain for someone sporting a 2.44 ERA.
"I'm glad I'm here, and I want to be here the rest of my career," Iglesias said Tuesday through a translator, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. "I never want to leave. It feels like home."
The Reds may honor those wishes if they plan to climb the standings next year. Otherwise, they may see an opportunity to sell high.
Iglesias has benefited from a .231 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)—below his .274 career average—in spite of his hard-hit rate climbing to 34.4 percent. While always in high demand among contenders, a legit late-inning reliever is also seen as a necessary sacrifice for a lesser team looking to stockpile talent.
The Cleveland Indians dealt Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the San Diego Padres for Francisco Mejia, MLB.com's top-ranked catcher prospect. If the Reds can obtain a top-shelf farmhand for Iglesias, it's hard to see them declining a trade.
9. Kyle Gibson or Jake Odorizzi, SPs, Minnesota Twins
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Kyle Gibson and Jake Odorizzi, both of whom are under contract through 2019, get paired together because their availability depends on the Minnesota Twins' offseason mindset.
Trading pending free agents Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier does not necessarily foreshadow a rebuild for a squad that made the playoffs last year. The Twins could instead recalibrate while anticipating bounce-back campaigns from Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton.
In that case, Gibson and Odorizzi are precisely the pitchers Minnesota will need behind Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana, who has a $14 million club option for 2019.
However, the Twins have more reinforcements on the way. Last winter, they signed Michael Pineda to a two-year deal knowing he would miss all of 2018 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Posting a 3.04 ERA in Triple-A, 24-year-old southpaw Stephen Gonsalves could also compete for a 2019 rotation spot.
Per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, the Twins received significant interest for Gibson, but they were looking to get "blown away" by an offer. It could happen in the offseason, as he currently wields a 3.47 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 135 innings.
While sporting the worst ERA (4.58) of his five full seasons as a major league starter, Odorizzi is again on pace to make at least 28 starts. He has already struck out 118 batters in 112 frames.
Both hurlers are valuable trade commodities if the Twins seek more long-term stability.
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8. JT Realmuto, C, Miami Marlins
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If we were ranking these trade candidates in terms of value, J.T. Realmuto would be atop this list.
Already third in WAR among catchers during the past two seasons, the 27-year-old has taken a seismic leap at the plate. His 14 home runs are three away from matching last year's personal best, and he leads the position (among catchers with at least 100 plate appearances) in slugging percentage (.531) and weighted on-base average (.378 wOBA).
Teams generally don't trade a peaking star with two more years under team control. The Miami Marlins, however, are not the typical franchise.
New ownership shipped Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich out of town last offseason, so it's fair to wonder if Realmuto is next. Baseball's best backstop won't drag a putrid supporting cast to contention, but he would certainly command a major haul on the open market.
Per the Washington Post's Chelsea Janes, the Marlins and Washington Nationals discussed Realmuto before Tuesday's non-waiver deadline. On the fence between buying and selling, their NL East competitor deemed the price too high.
That could change in the offseason. They could acquire the elite catcher to please free agent Bryce Harper, who seems to want Realmuto on his side. Perhaps the Nationals' desire to stay in the title picture with Harper would push them to deal star prospect Victor Robles.
The Marlins should only jump at a king's ransom, but don't put it past them to move another marquee position player under team control.
7. Jose Martinez, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
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On Monday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis-Post Dispatch said the St. Louis Cardinals were "open to discussing offers" for Jose Martinez. Expect them to revisit those talks this offseason.
They'd have little desire to move the 30-year-old if they were operating under AL rules. But unless MLB comes to its senses and institutes a designated hitter in the Senior Circuit, the Cardinals must deal with his minus-6 defensive runs saved (DRS) at first base.
Poor fielding has dropped his WAR to 1.0 even though he has a .353 wOBA. The Cards wouldn't surrender much overall value by shielding Matt Carpenter at first and giving Jedd Gyorko a heavier shake at third base.
St. Louis, atypically successful at developing useful position players, gets impatient when those players stumble. Just look at the unexpected decision to move Tommy Pham, who followed up an MVP-caliber breakout with tamer, yet solid results.
Martinez, who last homered on June 30 and started 15 games in July, is already in danger of getting pushed out of the lineup.
He has four more years under team control, so any trade should either land significant young talent or immediate reinforcements. The Cardinals can preserve their depth by acquiring a more versatile infielder. Or they can trade Martinez for bullpen help if closer Bud Norris signs elsewhere.
6. Sonny Gray, SP, New York Yankees
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Sonny Gray could make some sense as an offseason trade candidate, but why would the New York Yankees give up on him when they will need starting pitching?
That was this writer's thought process before Gray allowed seven runs to this Baltimore Orioles lineup on Wednesday afternoon.
The 28-year-old righty's home ERA inflated to 7.71 ERA following his latest debacle. On Thursday, General manager Brian Cashman told WFAN's Chris Carlin and Maggie Gray that Gray will move to the bullpen.
Trading someone at his lowest value defies basic economics, and the Bronx Bombers especially run the risk of looking foolish for getting a substantially weaker package than they sent to the Oakland Athletics last July.
Yet don't assume his value has entirely plummeted. Given his 3.62 ERA in 10 road starts, some team might identify Gray as a worthwhile reclamation project. Much like Chris Archer or Kevin Gausman, NL suitors may pay for upside they're confident in unleashing outside the AL East.
If they don't receive a rotation replacement for Gray, the Yankees have the bullpen, farm and financial resources necessary to revamp the staff behind Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka.
5. Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers
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Nicholas Castellanos gossip never gained much traction in July. According to The Athletic's Jayson Stark, the Detroit Tigers weren't going to trade him, "barring a huge overpay." The asking price later dipped to a "legit baseball trade," whatever that means.
They want a lot, and they should. Along with boasting a career-high .353 wOBA, the 26-year-old outfielder is close to posting a slugging percentage of at least .490 (.487) for the third straight season.
Having played his rookie campaign at age 22, he's also a free agent after the 2019 season. Nobody can accuse the Tigers of being cheap, but they have shed most of their high salaries beyond the likely immovable Miguel Cabrera and Jordan Zimmermann.
They would have to view Castellanos as a top-tier franchise cornerstone to open their pockets during the early stages of a rebuild. There are enough red flags to shop him instead.
Constantly keeping a walk rate near his career 6.3 percentage, the righty has registered a mundane career .318 on-base percentage. He's also a subpar defender who has toiled just as much in right field (-14 DRS) as he did at third base last year.
Unless the two sides discuss a long-term extension instead, Detroit should dangle Castellanos after a career year. Don't wait until July, when contenders are often more focused on attaining pitching.
4. Kirby Yates, RP, San Diego Padres
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The Padres are a tough team to read. After trading Hand and Cimber, they were frequently linked to Chris Archer and other young starters before the non-waiver deadline.
Kirby Yates looked poised to follow his fellow relievers out the door. He'll instead stay as their closer.
Like Hand—a constant center of trade speculation last year—there's no urgency to move his ninth-inning successor. Yates is arbitration-eligible for two more seasons.
He'll also turn 32 next March, and San Diego would require some major reinforcements to field a 2019 playoff contender. Attaching saves to his name will bolster his stature, especially if he maintains a 1.49 ERA into the offseason.
Trading Yates will diminish the Padres' 2019 outlook, but they can acquire more goodies for a 2020 ascension. They could also delay this process until next summer, when title hopefuls are especially eager to collect a major bullpen upgrade.
Since Yates doesn't have a long track record of dominance—he compromised a breakout 2017 by relinquishing 14 runs in August—they should pounce while the stove is sizzling hot.
3. Justin Smoak, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
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The Toronto Blue Jays decided not to trade Josh Donaldson last offseason. How's that working out for them?
Harboring understandable playoff hopes, they missed their window to receive a sizable return for the 2015 AL MVP, who has missed more than two months with a calf injury. They can at best hope to salvage a lesser return via a waivers trade if he returns in August.
They should remember this ordeal when answering inquiries for Justin Smoak, who will hit the open market after playing out a discounted $6 million club option next year.
If Donaldson walks, the Blue Jays won't feel as confident about 2019's prognosis. Even if he stays, they can't count on the then-33-year-old to bounce back to superstardom and headline a fearful adversary to the loaded Yankees and Boston Red Sox.
If Smoak is Toronto's Opening Day first baseman, he's likely headed to a contender next July. Whether this winter or next summer, plenty of clubs will want an affordable player with a .358 wOBA. An offseason deal will invite more suitors and a higher price tag, so the Blue Jays should take a proactive approach.
2. Scooter Gennett, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
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Scooter Gennett is no fluke. Not only has he validated his surprising 2017 breakout, but he has built upon it by batting .314/.365/.503. He also has earned the third-highest wOBA (.369) among all second basemen, behind only Javier Baez and Jose Altuve.
He's for real. He's also a free agent after the 2019 season.
Just like with Iglesias, the Reds may hesitate to dampen their 2019 chances. Yet trading Gennett presents an opportunity to restructure the roster rather than rebuild.
All nine squads who have plated more runs than the Reds sit firmly in the playoff hunt. It's the pitching holding them back. No NL rotation carries a worse ERA, so exchanging the breakout second baseman for a significant starter could upgrade their immediate outlook.
That's especially the case if Nick Senzel seizes the starting spot. MLB.com's No. 4 prospect was beckoning for a call-up from Triple-A (.310/.378/.509) before tearing a tendon in his right index finger. Blocked from the hot corner by Eugenio Suarez, the 23-year-old needs a middle-infield vacancy to make his major league debut next year.
1. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox
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Chris Sale. Adam Eaton. Jose Quintana. Todd Frazier. David Robertson. The Chicago White Sox traded just about every major leaguer with significant value.
Not Jose Abreu.
In hindsight, they should have exchanged the first baseman before this season. His .336 wOBA represents a personal nadir, and the defensive metrics remain unkind, as he has the worst DRS (-7) of any AL first baseman.
Yet the 31-year-old has remained the unharmed Twinkie in Chicago's rebuilding apocalypse. Even with his mitigated value, one has to think the club will entertain offers this winter.
Abreu has one more year of arbitration remaining, While the White Sox should welcome Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech to the big leagues next season (if not sooner), they have not received enough from their current young nucleus to envision a fast pass to contendership a la the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.
If Abreu doesn't heat up over the final two months, they may let him repair his stock for a 2019 summer trade. That isn't the preferred course of action, though. Even strong rentals don't always net strong returns, and the White Sox traded their other key players well before free agency beckoned.
Keep an eye on the Houston Astros, who expressed interest in Abreu last month, according to MLB.com's Richard Justice. Designated hitter Evan Gattis has the option to sign elsewhere this offseason. They should weigh Abreu's first four stellar seasons more heavily than a pedestrian 2018.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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