Now-or-Never MLB Trade Deadline Deals to Supercharge Contenders
As MLB's power distribution gets heavier at the top, contenders face added pressure to make a marquee acquisition before the postseason.
Two years ago, the Chicago Cubs gave the New York Yankees a package headlined by Gleyber Torres to rent Aroldis Chapman. By accepting a sizable long-term loss, they won their first World Series in over a century.
A game-changing deal does not necessarily have to go down by July 31's non-waiver trade deadline. The Houston Astros waited a full month later to snag Justin Verlander, who pitched them to the 2017 crown.
This year's champion will point to at least one move that fueled its title chase. Every contender aside from a couple of fringe National League hopefuls (Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants) has already finalized a deal.
Yet some were smaller in scope, and most teams still have another need to address.
Renting a low-tier depth piece simply won't fulfill the "supercharge" barometer, so some of these proposed deals take liberties with what's probable. Two highlighted NL East superstars will likely stay put through the season, but they could inject a contender with life if moved.
These trades would give squads the extra shove needed to make a deep playoff push.
Bryce Harper to Cleveland Indians
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If available, Bryce Harper would look great in any team's lineup.
The New York Yankees just lost their own star right fielder (Aaron Judge) to a wrist injury. Imagine the Washington Nationals' lefty targeting Yankee Stadium's short porch.
According to NBC LA's Michael J. Duarte, the Los Angeles Dodgers have already inquired about adding Harper to a squad that recently welcomed Manny Machado. Or what if a loaded Houston Astros squad added him just for fun?
None of these scenarios are likely. On Thursday, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal said the Nationals might consider selling—not necessarily Harper—if they did not win at least three of four games in an upcoming series against the Miami Marlins. They won two, maintaining a six-game deficit behind the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies.
Even if they sell, that might simply mean flipping Kelvin Herrera and other relievers instead of pending free agents Harper, Daniel Murphy and Gio Gonzalez.
Let's pretend Harper is available. Any contender would want him, but the Cleveland Indians need him the most.
All-Star Michael Brantley is their only healthy outfielder with an OPS above .700. Lonnie Chisenhall won't be back from a calf strain until September at the earliest.
Cleveland would be fighting to avoid a disappointing postseason absence in any division besides the putrid AL Central, where it instead enjoys the largest division lead (nine games). The 2015 AL champions can already look ahead to October, where they'll at best be the Junior Circuit's fourth-best team.
Placing Harper alongside Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez would quickly narrow that gap. It could also cost the Indians Triston McKenzie, their lone top-shelf prospect remaining after sending Francisco Mejia to the San Diego Padres for relievers Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. It could be a disastrous long-term choice, but this thought exercise is concerned with winning right now.
Adrian Beltre to New York Yankees
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This is the least dire situation, especially if Judge and Gary Sanchez (groin) return from injuries by October. Yet the short-handed Yankees can use an extra hitter to power them across the finish line.
A playoff spot is probable, but not guaranteed. While there's no need to panic—they still wield seven healthy position players with an OPS above .790—the Bronx Bombers also can't grow too complacent while waiting for their young stars to recover.
That's not to say general manager Brian Cashman must sell the farm for Harper if the opportunity arises. Although he already missed out on some possible fits (Manny Machado, Mike Moustakas, Steve Pearce), polished veterans remain stuck on losing squads.
Able to play third place and right field, Jose Bautista makes sense as a cheap placeholder if the Yankees and New York Mets can squash any hard feelings from last year's shattered Jay Bruce negotiations. They might have better luck of reuniting with Curtis Granderson shortly after striking an accord with the Toronto Blue Jays for J.A. Happ.
Acquiring Adam Jones could boost clubhouse morale and help their outfield if he accepts a trade and move from center field. Yet he's looks inclined to play out the season with the Baltimore Orioles. Per Fancred's Jon Heyman, he passed up an opportunity to join the Phillies.
The Yankees could think outside the box and pursue Adrian Beltre.
Having tallied three extra-base hits and one walk in 79 July plate appearances, the 39-year-old's weighted runs created plus (wRC+) has dropped to a below-average 98. That would mark his lowest clip since 2009, but a 30.0 percent line-drive rate and 42.3 hard-hit percentage both foreshadow positive regression to the mean.
Giancarlo Stanton can join Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks in the outfield, leaving Beltre and Miguel Andujar to alternate between third base and designated hitter. The 21-year veteran and 23-year-old rookie can both benefited from limited defensive exposure.
Beltre is still batting .343 against lefties during a down year, so he'll help ease the blow of missing Judge and Sanchez versus southpaws. However, he can also block any trade, which the Texas Rangers seem reluctant to make anyway. The Yankees may want the Rangers to absorb some of his salary, creating off-field hurdles to clear in order to land an ideal on-field fit.
Kirby Yates to Boston Red Sox
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The Indians (Hand and Cimber), Yankees (Zach Britton) and Astros (Ryan Pressly) have all bolstered their bullpen within the last week. It's now the Boston Red Sox's turn.
Sixth in ERA (3.40), a unit led by closer Craig Kimbrel should not be considered a weakness. Yet Boston's middle relievers won't inspire peace of mind on the postseason stage.
Following a dominant May, Joe Kelly has relinquished 17 runs in his last 16.1 innings. Opponents are batting .324/.375/.432 against Heath Hembree in July. While Matt Barnes has materialized as a lights-out setup man, he has also issued 23 walks in 45 frames.
Much like last year, when they acquired Addison Reed, the Red Sox need a reliable late-inning upgrade for October. Many top options are already off the market, but San Diego has one more relief stud to sell.
Kirby Yates could become the summer's best reliever to change hands. The 31-year-old righty has registered a 1.60 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 50 strikeouts in 39.1 spectacular innings. His 25.0 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage (K-BB%) slides right behind Kimbrel on the leaderboard.
Arbitration-eligible for two more seasons, he also presents a long-term fix as the Red Sox continue their arms race against the Yankees into 2019. He'd thus cost a significant prospect or two from an already-depleted farm system, but let's worry about future ramifications later.
They already fortified their lineup (Pearce) and rotation (Nathan Eovaldi), so the bullpen presents the last item on their deadline checklist. Yates would immensely help MLB's wins leader in the playoffs.
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Jacob deGrom to Colorado Rockies
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This may sound strange to say about a team looking to make a second straight playoff appearance, but the Colorado Rockies are playing with house money.
They're fortunate to tower 10 games over .500 despite brandishing a minus-one run differential. Only one game ahead in the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers have outscored the opposition by 95 runs this season.
Don't expect the Rockies to take much solace in that sentiment. Third baseman Nolan Arenado could erase their title aspirations by leaving after the 2019 season. Per Cot's Contracts, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond and Wade Davis, all 32 years old, will meanwhile make a combined $51 and $50 million in each of the next two seasons, respectively.
The Rockies may have lucked their way into playoff contention, but they're nonetheless entrenched in a heated race. That won't last without attaining some mound reinforcements.
While Coors Field deserves the lion's share of the blame, no other postseason candidate joins their pitching staff in the bottom 10 of ERA. Observers can claim the unforgiving home park is responsible for their struggle to cultivate an ace, but Jon Gray and his 5.89 road ERA isn't a top-shelf answer despite his 3.01 fielding independent pitching (FIP).
FanGraphs currently assigns the Rockies a 35.1 percent probability of reaching the playoffs and 1.0 percent chance of winning the World Series. Acquiring Jacob deGrom would immediately make them a more serious threat.
Could the NL Cy Young Award front-runner—assuming voters are rational enough to ignore the win-loss column—handle Coors Field? It helps that he flaunts the fourth-highest soft-hit percentage (24.7) of all qualified starters behind Chris Sale, CC Sabathia and New York Mets teammate Zach Wheeler. Only seven starters have generated a lower contact percentage.
The Mets probably won't deal deGrom this summer. Yet if they make him available, shortstop Brendan Rodgers is precisely the type of young star to command their attention. A package led by MLB.com's No. 6 prospect would at least force them to listen.
Other NL squads would suddenly be terrified of encountering Colorado in the Wild Card Game or best-of-five series where the ace can start twice.
Zack Wheeler to Milwaukee Brewers
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Most of the same points could be made for the Milwaukee Brewers acquiring deGrom or fellow Mets ace Noah Syndergaard. Yet the Brewers are in a bit better shape than the Rockies, and nobody wants to read the last section copied and pasted.
Let's instead pinpoint a more realistic target who would significantly boost their odds of reaching their first postseason since 2011.
Brewers fans will naturally prefer deGrom to Wheeler, a 28-year-old with a 4.11 ERA who has already worked the second-most starts (20) and innings (120.1) in any season of his six-year career. Look closer, and they'll see a blossoming righty who has recorded a 3.20 ERA in his last 11 starts.
The Mets are finally getting a glimpse of Wheeler's abilities when healthy. Per Brooks Baseball, his average fastball velocity has risen a hair below 97 miles per hour in June and July. He has also provided much-needed durability by working at least six innings in 15 outings.
Then again, the Brewers won't require deep outings with Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Jeremy Jeffress, Joakim Soria and Corey Knebel waiting in the bullpen. Shorter stints will help Wheeler's bottom line; he sports a 3.36 ERA before his third turn through the batting order.
Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson and Junior Guerra are all solid, but unspectacular rotation options. Rookie Freddy Peralta has fluctuated from unhittable to unwatchable in eight erratic starts. Last year's ace, Jimmy Nelson, will return from a torn labrum no sooner than September.
Although Wheeler isn't a veritable rotation anchor like deGrom, an above-average starter will help Milwaukee play to its late-inning strength. This pairing is also well within the realm of possibility. Per MLB Network's Jon Morosi and Rosenthal, the Mets and Brewers have already discussed a swap that nearly happened three years ago.
Chris Archer to Atlanta Braves
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Perhaps the coldest contender heading into Tuesday's deadline, the Atlanta Braves have gone 8-13 in July with four consecutive losses. Despite Sean Newcomb's near no-hit bid on Sunday, the pitching staff has ceded 4.8 runs per contest this month.
Just like that, six NL teams boast a better record. With the NL East and wild card (1.5 games each) still firmly in reach, the burgeoning squad should parlay one of baseball's deepest farm systems into a substantial pitching upgrade.
The Mets moving deGrom is improbable, but sending him to a division adversary is downright implausible. The Braves instead can escape the danger zone by acquiring Chris Archer.
This move would help both Archer and the Braves. The Tampa Bay Rays righty, who has posted a 3.29 ERA in 21 career interleague starts, will benefit greatly from facing the Mets and Marlins instead of the Yankees and Red Sox.
Third in defensive runs saved, Atlanta's fielding should also help Archer realized his ace upside supported by past success and consistently strong peripherals. A change in scenery would empower him to erase the gap between his 4.31 ERA and 3.62 FIP.
That version of Archer is worthy of headlining Atlanta's rotation. It's not a far-fetched pairing either, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times identified the Braves as one of "the most interested teams" in pursuit of Tampa Bay's 29-year-old starter.
Brandishing eight of MLB.com's top 100 prospects, the Braves have plenty of minor league ammunition to complete a deal. Under contract through 2021, he could help them triumph in more than one October.
Note: All statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
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