Ideal 2018 MLB Trade Deadline Targets for Every Contender
MLB's July 31 non-waiver trade deadline is rapidly approaching. Already, top targets such as Manny Machado have fallen off the board, and more will follow.
While we await the coming flurry of activity, here's a look at each contender's ideal trade target.
By "ideal," we mean a player who fills a need for the club in question and who could reasonably be acquired given that contender's minor league chips and perceived willingness to spend them.
As for who's a contender (and, thus, buyer) and who's not, that was based partly on record and postseason odds (via FanGraphs) but also involved a degree of subjectivity.
For example, FanGraphs has the San Francisco Giants with a 12.2 percent shot at the playoffs, but they are likely to buy. The Pittsburgh Pirates, meanwhile, have a 13.0 percent chance but are more likely to sell or stand pat in our estimation. That said, hot streaks and cold spells could change the calculus between now and the end of the month.
With each trade candidate, we also noted the package the seller might net in return.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 3B Mike Moustakas
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The Arizona Diamondbacks could use an offensive boost on the left side of the infield, where third baseman Jake Lamb (.226 average, .671 OPS) and shortstop Nick Ahmed (.231 average, .716 OPS) top the depth chart.
Machado would have been a fine addition, but instead he went to the division-rival Los Angeles Dodgers.
As a consolation prize, the Snakes could take aim at Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas. Moose is no Machado, but he's hit 19 home runs with 58 RBI and has extensive postseason experience from the 2014-15 glory years with K.C. during which the Royals won two American League pennants and a World Series.
He's got warts, including a ho-hum .308 on-base percentage, but that also means he wouldn't cost the prospect haul L.A. gave up for Machado.
Possible trade package: 1B Pavin Smith (High-A), RHP Taylor Clarke (Triple-A)
Atlanta Braves: RHP Joakim Soria
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The Atlanta Braves have blossomed ahead of schedule and have a real chance to make the postseason with their young core of burgeoning stars.
Like many contenders, they could use reinforcements in their bullpen, which ranks 20th in baseball with a 4.28 ERA.
One possible target: Chicago White Sox right-hander Joakim Soria, who owns a 2.70 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 36.2 frames.
The 34-year-old veteran has a $10 million team option or a $1 million buyout for 2019 and doesn't appear to fit into the long-term plans for the rebuilding ChiSox.
On the other hand, his extensive late-innings experience and solid 2018 results might be exactly what Atlanta needs to play deep into October.
Possible trade package: LHP Kyle Muller (High-A), C Brett Cumberland (High-A)
Boston Red Sox: RHP Mike Fiers
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The Boston Red Sox starting rotation ranks sixth in baseball with a 3.67 ERA. It's an uneven unit, however, boosted significantly by the presence of ace Chris Sale.
David Price and Rick Porcello, meanwhile, sport ERAs north of 4.00. Steven Wright (knee) and Eduardo Rodriguez (ankle) are injured. The Sox are a pretty complete team—hence their first-place position in the American League East—but this is an area in which they could sorely use some depth.
Boston doesn't have a deep enough farm system to land a co-No. 1 to pair with Sale. But ESPN's Buster Olney linked the Red Sox to the Detroit Tigers' Mike Fiers.
The 33-year-old has a 3.49 ERA through 19 starts and is under club control through 2019. He's a mid-rotation talent, but that may be all Boston needs—and all it can afford.
Possible trade package: 3B Bobby Dalbec (High-A), RHP Joan Martinez (High-A)
Chicago Cubs: RHP Kyle Barraclough
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The Chicago Cubs placed closer Brandon Morrow on the 10-day disabled list July 19 with right biceps tendinitis.
Translation: ruh-roh.
Yes, the Cubbies acquired righty Jesse Chavez from the Texas Rangers, but that's not going to be enough for a club with designs on reaching another World Series.
Chicago could chase a big-name closer such as the Baltimore Orioles' Zach Britton. Or, it could go for a more under-the-radar target. Enter the Miami Marlins' Kyle Barraclough.
In 44 innings, the 28-year-old righty has struck out 50 while posting a 2.45 ERA with 10 saves. His 5.4 career walks per nine innings are a red flag, but Barraclough is an emerging late-inning stud who's controllable through 2021.
The Fish will surely demand a big return that will ding an already depleted Cubs farm system. For a Chicago bullpen that's suddenly in disarray, it's the price of doing business.
Possible trade package: RHP Alex Lange (High-A), C/1B Miguel Amaya (Single-A)
Cleveland Indians: 2B Asdrubal Cabrera
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The Cleveland Indians already made a big splash, acquiring two-time All-Star reliever Brad Hand and Adam Cimber from the San Diego Padres for highly regarded catching prospect Francisco Mejia.
The Indians could stand pat and walk away with the weak American League Central. They're looking to keep pace with the Junior Circuit elite, however, and may therefore continue to add.
One interesting option: A reunion with veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, who played the first seven-plus seasons of his MLB career with Cleveland.
Cabrera is hitting .280 with 17 home runs and an .820 OPS for the last-place New York Mets and would represent a significant offensive upgrade over scuffling Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis (.219 average, .669 OPS).
Plus, as a 32-year-old rental, Cabrera wouldn't cost the Tribe any more top prospects.
Possible trade package: LHP Ryan Merritt (Triple-A), OF Mitch Longo (High-A)
Colorado Rockies: RHP Kirby Yates
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Stop us if you've heard this one before: The Colorado Rockies need pitching.
Most pressingly, they need to bolster a relief corps that ranks 28th in baseball with a 5.17 ERA.
After trading Hand to Cleveland, San Diego could shop right-hander Kirby Yates, who owns a sparkling 1.43 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. The 31-year-old is also controllable through 2020.
He doesn't have Hand's track record and thus the Friars won't be able to command as steep of a price. And while Coors Field is often a place promising pitchers go to crash and burn, Yates could offer a serious nudge to the Rockies' playoff chances in the deep National League West.
Possible trade package: 1B/3B Tyler Nevin (High-A), RHP Justin Lawrence (High-A)
Houston Astros: LHP Zach Britton
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The Houston Astros bullpen ranks second in baseball with a 2.96 ERA but skews heavily right-handed.
The 'Stros could gild the lily and add a late-inning southpaw like the Orioles' Britton, a two-time All-Star who has posted a 3.45 ERA with 13 strikeouts in 15.2 innings since returning from an Achilles injury.
Indeed, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic reported, the Astros are "all in" on Britton, whom they pursued last year as well.
Britton's pedigree means he won't come cheap, but his recent injury comeback and status as a rental mean he won't cost a trove of MiLB pieces, either.
Possible trade package: RHP Jorge Alcala (Double-A), OF Ronnie Dawson (High-A)
Los Angeles Dodgers: LHP Jake Diekman
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Machado was the Dodgers' big move, but don't assume Los Angeles is done wheeling and dealing.
It could still add to the bullpen and might be in on the Britton sweepstakes. After expending a rich prospect package to acquire Machado, however, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman may opt to shop on a lower shelf and acquire a solid complementary arm such as Rangers left-hander Jake Diekman, who has struck out 42 in 35.2 innings while posting a solid 3.28 ERA.
The Dodgers already have an excellent closer in Kenley Jansen, after all, and they just netted the biggest fish of trade season in Machado.
Possible trade package: 2B Omar Estevez (High-A), OF Cody Thomas (High-A)
Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Tyson Ross
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The Milwaukee Brewers were featured in Machado rumors right up until the end and could still seek offensive help. Second base, in particular, has been an offensive black hole for the Brew Crew.
Milwaukee's most pressing need might be in the starting rotation, however. Brewers starters rank 10th in the game with a 3.91 ERA, which isn't bad, but injuries have thinned a unit that's been without Jimmy Nelson since he underwent shoulder surgery in September.
The Brewers could try to land an ace such as the Mets' Jacob deGrom for a farm-gutting package, but even then New York might not bite.
More realistically, Milwaukee should go after a mid-rotation option such as the Padres' Tyson Ross. Ross' ERA took a beating in a couple of rough July starts in which he gave up 15 earned runs in seven innings, but he's bounced back with two solid outings since and is in the midst of a nice comeback season for the Friars.
As a rental, Ross would provide needed, relatively low-cost depth for the Milwaukee starting unit as the Brewers battle it out with the Cubs in the National League Central.
Possible trade package: RHP Marcos Diplan (Double-A), RHP Zack Brown (Double-A)
New York Yankees: LHP J.A. Happ
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Luis Severino has arrived as an ace. But with veteran CC Sabathia showing signs of decline, Jordan Montgomery lost to Tommy John surgery and Sonny Gray sporting a 5.34 ERA, the New York Yankees need starting pitching to keep up with the Red Sox in the AL East.
Assuming the Toronto Blue Jays are willing to deal within the division, the Yanks could pursue J.A. Happ.
The veteran southpaw has struck out 130 in 114 innings for the Jays and has pitched in the postseason in three separate seasons with Philadelphia and Toronto.
According to Bob Elliott of the Canadian Baseball Network, the Yankees had scouts in attendance for Happ's start Sunday, as did the Red Sox and Dodgers.
Happ would be a rental, but he is also a potential difference-maker.
Possible trade package: RHP Albert Abreu (High-A), RHP Domingo Acevedo (Double-A)
Oakland Athletics: RHP Bartolo Colon
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The Oakland Athletics signaled their intent to be buyers when they acquired closer Jeurys Familia from the Mets on Saturday.
Oakland faces an uphill road to the postseason in the top-heavy American League, but credit the scrappy small-market squad for rewarding its loyal East Bay fans and going for it.
The A's aren't likely to pull off any blockbusters, but they could use depth in a rotation that's been beset by injuries.
Could they bring back a familiar face and reunite with ageless wonder Bartolo Colon, who was an All-Star with Oakland in 2013?
Perhaps. Colon can still eat innings. In fact, he's pitched six frames or more in four of his last six starts for the Rangers and thrown 111.1 overall. He'd come cheap and could bring some of that Big Sexy magic to an unlikely contender.
Possible trade package: RHP Norge Ruiz (Double-A), PTBNL
Philadelphia Phillies: SS Eduardo Escobar
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The Phillies were also part of the Machado chase. If they want to beef up the left side of their infield, they should set their sights on Minnesota Twins shortstop Eduardo Escobar.
The 29-year-old is slashing .272/.332/.504 with 14 home runs and an MLB-leading 36 doubles for a team that's come crashing back to Earth after earning a wild-card berth in 2017.
Assuming the Twins are selling, it'd make sense for them to shop Escobar in his contract year.
As for the Phillies, they have an intriguing option at shortstop in rookie Scott Kingery but may prefer a proven commodity as they push toward the postseason.
Possible trade package: SS Arquimedes Gamboa (High-A), LHP Kyle Young (Single-A)
San Francisco Giants: RHP Blake Parker
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The San Francisco Giants are clinging to the fringes of the National League playoff picture and are looking up at the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Rockies in their own division.
That said, the Giants added veteran pieces to their aging core over the offseason in an effort to extract at least one more even-year run and are showing no indications of blowing it up just yet.
Buyers may dream that ace Madison Bumgarner will hit the trade market, but they can almost surely forget that.
Instead, the Giants may look to upgrade a bullpen that's eighth in the game with a 3.60 ERA but is without erstwhile closer Hunter Strickland (hand) and recently crumbled in a pair of extra-innings losses to the A's.
Assuming the Los Angeles Angels decide to sell (that's not a given, but they'd be wise to), the Giants should kick the tires on Blake Parker. The 33-year-old right-hander is averaging 10.2 strikeouts per nine and sports a 3.05 ERA with 10 saves.
He's also controllable through 2020, meaning San Francisco would have to deplete its already shallow farm system.
Possible trade package: RHP Shaun Anderson (Triple-A), RHP Logan Webb (High-A)
Seattle Mariners: RHP Matt Harvey
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The Seattle Mariners are trying to bust a 16-year postseason drought, the longest active streak in baseball.
They've got an ace in James Paxton, but he's been on the disabled list with a back injury. Felix Hernandez is a shell of his former kingly self. Guys like Mike Leake and Marco Gonzales are mid-rotation options.
The Mariners don't have the MiLB chips to go after a No. 1 starter, but they could take a flier on a former No. 1 starter.
That would be Matt Harvey, who was traded earlier this season from the Mets to the Cincinnati Reds and has enjoyed a minor resurrection. In 13 starts with the Reds, Harvey has a 5-4 record and 4.50 ERA.
A move from hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park to the pitcher-favoring Safeco Field could accelerate Harvey's comeback and give the Mariners rotation a shot in the arm.
A rental with warts who's playing for a last-place team that acquired him for little, Harvey should come cheap in the prospect department.
Possible trade package: OF Greifer Andrade (Single-A), PTBNL
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Raisel Iglesias
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The St. Louis Cardinals, much like the Giants, face a tough slog to get to the postseason but seem likely to be buyers at the deadline.
The Cards need to improve a bullpen that's 24th in MLB with a 4.69 ERA.
If Cincinnati is listening to offers for right-hander Raisel Iglesias and is willing to trade him within the division, St. Louis should pick up the phone.
The 28-year-old Cuban flamethrower has struck out 46 in 43 innings with a 2.30 ERA and 19 saves. The Reds may prefer to keep him. He's controllable through 2021 and could fit nicely into their rebuild.
If the Cardinals were willing to part with one of their top young pitchers plus more, however, this could be a match.
Possible trade package: RHP Dakota Hudson (Triple-A), 2B Max Schrock (Triple-A)
Washington Nationals: C J.T. Realmuto
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The Washington Nationals are hanging around .500 and trail the Phillies and Braves in the National League East. Heck, maybe they should just go ahead and trade Bryce Harper.
Realistically, that isn't going to happen. More likely, the Nats will make some moves and attempt once more to get past the division series before Harper's foray into free agency.
Washington already added to its bullpen with the June acquisition of Kelvin Herrera. Catcher is another area of need.
Matt Wieters returned from a hamstring injury before the All-Star break but has been limited to just 30 games by injuries and is slashing .198/.291/.319, which is...let's check...not good.
That brings us to J.T. Realmuto, who has become arguably the best offensive catcher in baseball with a .307 average and .886 OPS.
He also plays for the Marlins, who are seemingly always open for business. In June, however, Washington general manager Mike Rizzo suggested Miami's asking price was too high.
"We know what the return has to be on Realmuto, and we're not willing to meet that price," he said on MLB Network Radio.
If the Nationals remain mired in third place, a change of tune and bold action may be required.
Possible return package: SS Carter Kieboom (Double-A), RHP Erick Fedde (MLB)
All statistics accurate entering Monday and courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
