Potential Trade Packages and Landing Spots for Carlos Martinez
No trade deadline is complete without a game-changing variable emerging near the final hour.
If reason prevails, Carlos Martinez will remain a member of the St. Louis Cardinals on Aug. 1. At 50-49, they are in close enough proximity (4.5 games) to a wild-card spot. And wait, even if they weren't, why would they deal an affordable 26-year-old ace?
Although erratic on a game-by-game basis, he has posted a 3.26 ERA since the start of 2015. They can also keep him through 2023. Per Cot's Contracts, the righty will make $11.7 million in each of the next four seasons with club options for $17 million and $18 million in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Perhaps a shrewd broker would identify those pluses as reasons to sell. In a market mostly consisting of decent starting-pitching rentals—unless the New York Mets shop anyone from their rotation—the Cardinals could fetch a massive haul. He's also younger and wields a superior career adjusted ERA (117) to Jose Quintana (115), who netted a four-prospect haul led by Eloy Jimenez from the Chicago Cubs.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch said there's "credence" to the Cardinals exploring offers for the two-time All-Star. "This isn't rumor or innuendo," he wrote last week. "This is a possibility."
Yet the already low odds dwindled Saturday morning, when a right oblique strain sent Martinez to the disabled list. Per MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, manager Mike Shildt said the team is "super optimistic" the hurler will miss just one start. That means he could theoretically return from a 10-day hiatus in time to woo a contender right before July 31's non-waiver deadline.
Perhaps someone will leverage the injury and a career-high 11.3 walk percentage as an opportunity to buy a long-term fixture at a discount. The following trade scenarios, however, assume the Cardinals will still demand a king's ransom to pull off a pre-deadline stunner.
Atlanta Braves
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The Fit
If the Atlanta Braves stay patient, plenty of pitching is on the way.
Ten of the club's top 12 prospects, as graded by MLB.com, operate on the mound. That includes five top-50 and six top-70 hurlers, three of whom have already pitched in the majors this season. They're not, however, helping immediately. Mike Soroka and Max Fried are both injured, and Luiz Gohara is struggling in the bullpen after a promising 2017 arrival.
After headlining the rotation through June, breakout stars Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb have each ceded five runs in two separate July outings. Further regression would stymie Atlanta's quest to snap a four-season playoff drought.
Perhaps the Braves are content adding a cheap rental and keeping their young pitching armada intact for 2019 and beyond. Yet why waste Freddie Freeman's MVP-caliber campaign and Nick Markakis' resurgence when young studs Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies are ready to lead a pennant push now?
The Cost
- LHP Kolby Allard (No. 5 in ATL, No. 48 in MLB)
- LHP Max Fried (No. 7 in ATL, No. 70 in MLB)
- RHP Bryse Wilson (No. 12 in ATL)
- C Brett Cumberland (No. 22 in ATL)
The Braves are so stacked with pitching prospects that they could assemble a tempting offer while retaining their top four minor leaguers. While the names offered will boil down to each side's preferences, Fried and Kolby Allard give the Cardinals two southpaws ready for the limelight.
Fried's path to The Show took longer than anticipated, but the 24-year-old should have impressed the Birds on the Bat when stockpiling 11 strikeouts in 6.2 shutout frames against them on June 30. He's a power pitcher with a fierce curveball who must improve his command to stick in the rotation. Like Newcomb, he could generate enough whiffs and ground balls to succeed in spite of a subpar walk rate.
Allard does not possess a money pitch that will lend anyone to dreams of a 200-strikeout peak. The No. 14 pick from 2015 is instead a polished prospect with a higher probability of flourishing as a mid-rotation rock.
His 87 strikeouts in 109.1 Triple-A innings also come with a 2.80 ERA and 33 walks. He turns 21 next month.
Along with attaining the high-ceiling Fried and high-floor Allard, St. Louis snags a righty who would garner more attention in another organization's system. Bryse Wilson, 20, wields 107 strikeouts and 30 walks in 98.2 Double-A frames. He has allowed two runs and collected 34 strikeouts in four dominant July turns.
Catcher Brett Cumberland has belted 11 homers with a 15.4 walk percentage. The Braves wrap the package with more than a depth throw-in since they were spared from losing Soroka, Gohara, Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson.
Colorado Rockies
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The Fit
Overlooked in their quest for back-to-back playoff bids, the Colorado Rockies have leaped into the hunt after going 12-4 thus far in July. While Kyle Freeland and Tyler Anderson have commendably handled Coors Field, no other starter touts an ERA below 5.00.
The Rockies need to worry not only about securing a postseason slot but also having a trustworthy ace for a potential Wild Card Game—a common theme among potential trade partners. The epitome of inconsistency, Jon Gray wasn't the answer last year, when the Arizona Diamondbacks tagged him for seven hits and four runs in just 1.1 innings.
Nolan Arenado could close their contention window by bolting after 2019, so now is the sensible time to leverage some of their young talent into a major addition.
The Cost
- SS Brendan Rodgers (No. 1 in COL, No. 6 in MLB)
- RHP Riley Pint (No. 4 in COL)
- 1B/3B Tyler Nevin (No. 8 in COL)
Some Rockies fans stopped reading after seeing Brendan Rodgers. The elite prospect is a steep ask, but one must scroll all the way to No. 85 (3B Colten Welker) and No. 87 (RHP Peter Lambert) to find the franchise's other representatives in MLB.com's top 100.
They're not getting Martinez without moving the 21-year-old middle infielder, who has tallied 17 homers, 12 steals and an .844 OPS in Double-A. He'd form a potent double-play pairing with Paul DeJong in the next year or two.
St. Louis receives quality over quantity in this three-person package. While this trade is all about snagging Rodgers, the Cardinals also won't mind landing the 2016 No. 4 overall pick with a triple-digit heater.
Brandishing a 5.37 ERA and 92 walks in 137.1 minor league innings, Riley Pint's career has not commenced according to plan. He has also made just three starts this season because of forearm trouble. Yet the 20-year-old still flaunts ace upside, and he could benefit from a fresh start.
Tyler Nevin, the son of former corner infielder Phil Nevin, is a well-rounded prospect who won't need Coors Field to succeed at the plate. He rounds out an exciting trio that may require more patience than the Cardinals possess if they want at least one immediate contributor. The Rockies, meanwhile, may block all calls after hearing Rodgers' name uttered.
Milwaukee Brewers
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The Fit
Call it petty, but division rivals rarely conduct business with each other on such monumental transactions. That irrational thinking alone could cause the Cardinals to hang up even if the Milwaukee Brewers present the best offer.
The Brewers should also feel content acquiring a short-term rental in hopes that Jimmy Nelson returns to headline their 2019 rotation. Yet the group undoubtedly needs a boost with Nelson, Junior Guerra and Zach Davies all sidelined. Currently positioned to partake in the NL Wild Card Game, they should yearn for someone better than Chase Anderson or Jhoulys Chacin to make the must-win start.
Even after acquiring Christian Yelich last offseason, they have the farm system to swing for the fences. They could see an opportunity to seize a wide-open NL and vie for their first World Series crown in franchise history.
The Cost
- RHP Corbin Burnes (No. 2 in MIL, No. 55 in MLB)
- 3B Lucas Erceg (No. 3 in MIL)
- RHP Marcos Diplan (No. 11 in MIL)
- C/1B Jacob Nottingham (No. 25 in MIL)
A ready prospect with a high ceiling, Corbin Burnes makes an ideal centerpiece.
Although the 23-year-old righty posted a 5.15 ERA in Triple-A, he has ingratiated himself to the majors with three scoreless outings (6.0 innings) from the bullpen. One year removed from depositing a 1.67 ERA in High-A and Double-A, he wields the control and four-pitch arsenal to flourish in the rotation. A relief role at least presents a safety net.
St. Louis should still demand another significant prospect. Milwaukee thus also sacrifices Lucas Erceg, a 23-year-old with a strong arm and immense power upside at the hot corner. While still a considerable get, his progress has sputtered this season with a pedestrian .254/.315/.398 Double-A slash line.
Milwaukee also parts with two prospects looking to restore their depreciated stock. Marcos Diplan has displayed spurts of dominance, but the erratic hurler has issued 50 walks in 87.1 frames. The 21-year-old starter's fastball and slider would play well in the bullpen.
Already traded twice, Jacob Nottingham toiled for Milwaukee's Double-A affiliate for two years after a 2015 breakthrough. He's now back on track, batting .303/.368/.570 with 10 home runs—already surpassing last year's total—in Triple-A. The catcher may eventually be forced to accept a permanent move to first base, making him a final pot-sweetener rather than a vital building block.
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New York Yankees
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The Fit
Come on. Where there's trade speculating regarding a starting pitcher, the New York Yankees are not far behind.
Their offense leads MLB with a 116 weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Their bullpen's 2.78 ERA and 31.4 strikeout percentage also best baseball's leaderboards. Already a title contender in spite of a 4.03 rotation ERA, an effective ace could turn them into an impenetrable juggernaut.
The Bronx Bombers are mostly responsible for entertaining this thought in the first place. When acknowledging the possibility of St. Louis shopping Martinez, Goold noted them as a viable partner because of their "close-proximity prospects of interest."
According to USA Today's Doug Rush, the Yankees "have solid interest" in Martinez, whom they scouted during Thursday's rough start (six runs allowed in five innings) against the Cubs.
Even if the Mets dangle Jacob deGrom and/or Noah Syndergaard, they may foolishly resist sending one across the Big Apple. The Cardinals, however, should have no qualms over dealing Martinez to the AL. He looked like a sensible pivot before landing back on the disabled list, so the Yankees are the team best positioned to throw caution to the wind and pursue the wounded starter.
The Cost
- RHP Albert Abreu (No. 3 in NYY, No. 60 Overall)
- RHP Chance Adams (No. 4 in NYY)
- RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 12 in NYY)
- OF Isiah Gilliam (No. 29 in NYY)
With Matt Carpenter hitting like Babe Ruth, the Yankees can keep Miguel Andujar. They also will not relinquish their ironclad grip on rookie phenom Gleyber Torres, and general manager Brian Cashman has already balked at trading top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield.
Given their surplus of young talent, they can still formulate a reasonable offer by ransacking a farm flush with power arms.
Albert Abreu needs more seasoning, but his power heater and crushing curveball still contain the foundation of a future ace. He could be a candidate to follow Jordan Hicks' express path to the majors via the bullpen.
This time last year, Cashman also likely fended off plenty of requests for Chance Adams. Instead of following his breakout 2017 by ascending to the majors, he has posted a 4.89 ERA in 18 Triple-A starts. He has still submitted more than a strikeout per inning, so the Cardinals may see an opportunity to secure a near-ready No. 4 starter.
Before injuring his shoulder, Jonathan Loaisiga posted a 3.00 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 18 big league innings. The 23-year-old expedited his debut by registering 58 strikeouts and four walks in 10 minor league starts.
Because they can taste their 28th title, the Evil Empire throws in Isiah Gilliam for good measure. The bat-first outfielder flaunts enough power to buy as an upside flier. This deal gives St. Louis a lot of high-impact talent capable of bolstering a 2019 refresh rather than a long-term rebuild.
Oakland Athletics
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The Fit
The Oakland Athletics have whittled their wild-card deficit to three games behind the Seattle Mariners, who are 60-40 with a plus-one run differential. Perhaps they're confident in Sean Manaea's ability to handle the Boston Red Sox—whom he no-hit in April—or Yankees in a possible AL Wild Card Game, but they will struggle to earn that lofty challenge behind a patchwork rotation featuring injury risks Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, as well as the well-traveled Edwin Jackson.
A year after selling Sonny Gray, the A's could replace him with another young rotation anchor.
It's more likely they pursue a cheaper rental a la Mike Fiers or Nathan Eovaldi, but they have the pieces to attempt a major splash after divesting last summer. That doesn't necessarily mean they will regift Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo and James Kaprielian to St. Louis.
The Cost
- LHP Jesus Luzardo (No. 1 in OAK, No. 20 in MLB)
- SS/OF Jorge Mateo (No. 4 in OAK, No. 71 in MLB)
- 3B Sheldon Neuse (No. 9 in OAK)
- OF Tyler Ramirez (No. 16 in OAK)
This blockbuster will instead cost Oakland Jesus Luzardo, a 20-year-old southpaw who has authored a 2.36 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 68.2 Double-A innings. MLB.com's No. 20 prospect gives the Cardinals an elite young talent to replenish the rotation in 2020.
OK, now let's borrow from last year's Gray return. Mateo has continued his topsy-turvy career by batting .220/.274/.342 following a strong finish to 2017. He's also a poor fit in Oakland, which has attempted an MLB-low 40 stolen bases. Even if his top-100 prospect standing has become questionable, the 23-year-old speedster should still convey value on the trade market.
Blocked by Matt Chapman, third baseman Sheldon Neuse also gives St. Louis a potential heir apparent to Matt Carpenter. While the 23-year-old has belted just three homers in Triple-A, he brandishes raw power waiting to be unleashed.
Tyler Ramirez, a 5'9" outfielder with a keen batting eye and plus glove, rounds out the package. He could be the latest depth piece the Cardinals transform into a productive big leaguer.
Note: Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Prospect rankings obtained from MLB.com.
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