10 Players with Most to Gain in 2018 NBA Summer League
NBA Summer League is an imperfect proving ground, but it provides the first chance to see which young players are ready to improve.
For that reason, even without any defensive intensity or strategic sophistication, it's still wildly valuable.
Players get the chance to justify their draft slots, provide hope for their teams that they are ready for a larger role and prove they've added critical skills. Strong performances can shift an entire organization's thinking. Example: When Donovan Mitchell blew up last summer, it put the Utah Jazz on a path they never would have foreseen after they lost Gordon Hayward in free agency.
Just as importantly, strong summer-league showings can redefine players' outlooks. Perhaps a former reserve will show he's ready for a rotation role. Maybe a forgotten talent will re-establish himself as a breakout candidate. Lottery-plucked rookies will get their first crack at looking like cornerstones.
If you're playing in summer league, it's probably because you're young and not established as a difference-maker. In that sense, there's a ton at stake for every participant.
These guys have more to gain than most.
Jordan Bell, Golden State Warriors
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The Golden State Warriors have just two big men under contract: Jordan Bell and Damian Jones. And while both have plenty to prove, Bell has the most to gain.
If Bell wants to start at center for a title favorite, if he wants to see huge minutes during the regular season and playoffs, if he wants to firmly establish himself as an integral piece of a dynasty, then this is his chance.
Free-agent Kevon Looney was higher on the depth chart during Golden State's most recent postseason run, seeing the floor ahead of Bell in the conference finals against the Houston Rockets. That should have been a perfect series for the mobile, agile rookie. But it seemed the coaching staff wasn't ready to trust Bell's poise and IQ with such high stakes. If Bell shows improved court awareness and consistent focus in summer league, he'll remove the last excuse the Warriors staff had for withholding minutes.
As a rookie, Bell led the team in defensive box plus-minus, posting the highest block and steal rates of any returning big man—this includes Draymond Green. The talent, athleticism and potential are undeniable; now it'll be up to Bell to show he's ready to leverage his gifts.
A switchable defender who protects the rim, can finish lobs, pass out of a short roll and run the floor (when he remembers to), Bell can show up to summer league, crush opposing frontcourt players and solidify his spot as a key cog in a dynasty.
Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
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Trae Young is already the Atlanta Hawks' cornerstone in theory. He can use summer league to prove he's one in practice, too.
Young's shooting range and passing eye aren't on Stephen Curry's level, but the vague outline of his game bears resemblance. That makes him one of a small number of 2018 draftees who project as transformative stars. Of course, his lack of size and athleticism could also mean the 6'2" Young is a colossal bust.
That's a wide range of outcomes—one Young can narrow with a stellar summer-league effort.
If he proves he can succeed against NBA-caliber ball pressure, it'll go a long way toward easing concerns about his capacity for stardom. In an ideal scenario for the Hawks, Young will play with the same unbridled confidence and flair he had at Oklahoma—firing off deep treys, escaping from aggressive defenders and single-handedly propping up an offense with his gravity. Curry stuff, basically.
We probably won't see Young's suspect defense tested, since so little is played in these games. But if he's at least willing to compete, then that will be something.
The Hawks got themselves a first-rounder in the deal that brought Young aboard, so if he flops, the exchange won't be a total loss. But if Young thrives in summer league, it would give Atlanta's rebuild a star around which to orbit.
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
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Are we even sure summer-league competition will pique Luka Doncic's interest? After all, he just finished dominating the second-best league in the world as a teenager; it's possible facing rosters made up of fringe NBA talent and unproven rookies will be a step down for the Dallas Mavericks' prized pick.
Framed another way, we should expect dominance from Doncic this summer.
Much like Young, Doncic must show he's capable of combating pressure from NBA-quality athletes. If there's a concern with the 19-year-old's offensive game, it's with a lack of the first-step burst ball-handlers need to punish aggressive opponents.
If he can handle the strength and speed of opposing defenders, Doncic could position himself for primary playmaking responsibilities during the regular season. Dennis Smith Jr. is a dynamite athlete, but he might benefit from working off the ball more. If Doncic proves ready, he could find himself in charge of a dangerous Mavs offense.
Nobody should draw sweeping conclusions from summer-league play, but a strong performance—complete with shotmaking, transition brilliance and semi-competitive defense—could bolster the case that Doncic should have been drafted first overall.
De'Anthony Melton, Houston Rockets
4 of 10
Nobody's seen De'Anthony Melton in a competitive game since March 2017. A suspension cost him what could have been a key developmental sophomore season, which means Melton is a bit of an unknown.
If he used the year off to hone a shaky jumper (Melton made just 28.4 percent of his threes as a freshman), the 6'3" guard could carve out a few rotation minutes for the Houston Rockets. Melton profiles as an Avery Bradley-type defender, one capable of handling both backcourt positions and even bothering some bigger wings with his 6'8 ½" wingspan.
"He's like a perfect role player," ESPN's Jonathan Givony told Joey Kaufmann of the Orange County Register. "You need to have someone who could complement your stars. Your stars can handle the ball, so you want to have guys who can play without the ball."
Melton doesn't need to take over games and drop 30 points to maximize his time in summer league. All he has to do is verify the belief he can guard several positions while making the occasional open three.
The Rockets may lose a rotation wing or two this offseason. Trevor Ariza is a free agent, and any potential deal for LeBron James would gut the roster. If Melton proves he can perform the limited tasks Houston asks of its role-players, he could wind up on the court in a playoff series.
Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
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Everybody loves Bam Adebayo, partly because he's an almost perfect foil for Hassan Whiteside, a player who, to put it charitably, has a harder time being liked.
The Miami Heat are still stuck paying the balance of Whiteside's four-year, $98 million deal, but a big step forward from Adebayo in summer league could clarify the center picture. Because if Adebayo—a muscle-bound physical marvel with surprising feel as an elbow facilitator and boundless defensive potential—shows out this summer, Whiteside will become expendable.
Trading a conventional center for value is almost impossible these days, but Adebayo's potential emergence could allow the Heat to take back a much smaller return for Whiteside.
From Adebayo's perspective, starter's minutes and a significantly elevated leaguewide profile hang in the balance. This summer will be about Adebayo's proving his mettle as a modern, switchable, multi-skilled center. If he can do that, not only would it benefit the Heat this season, it would also set up Adebayo as a legitimate two-way difference-maker.
The kind who eventually gets paid Whiteside money.
Frank Ntilikina, New York Knicks
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New York Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina didn't take a break when his season ended in April. Instead, he got to work breaking himself down for an offseason rebuild. Having grown an inch and added muscle during a postseason trip to his native France, last year's eighth overall pick appears ready to make a leap.
"Frank's entire demeanor has been different since he has been back," former Knicks developmental coach Chris Brickley told Marc Berman of the New York Post. "He has a confident swagger now that he didn't have last season. I think when he went home, it allowed him to take a step back and analyze his weaknesses."
Ntilikina couldn't shoot as a rookie, hitting just 31.8 percent of his threes and 36.4 percent of his shots from the field overall. A potential All-NBA defender on the wing, the now-6'6" Ntilikina doesn't need to be a knockdown sniper to provide value. But if he shows an improved jumper and makes the most of his offseason ball-handling work, he'll solidify his spot as the Knicks' point guard of the future—one capable of occupying a core spot alongside rookie Kevin Knox and injured star Kristaps Porzingis (torn ACL).
There were times last year when, despite his unreliable shooting, the Knicks moved Ntilikina off the ball, further minimizing his offensive impact. The best thing he can do this summer is showcase improvements that prevent such a move from happening again.
Harry Giles, Sacramento Kings
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To some extent, the key question of summer league, for every participant is: Can he play?
Usually, though, there's nuance involved.
Can he hit threes at a reliable rate? Did he add enough strength to compete against bigger wings? Has he developed his basketball intellect to the point where the game finally slows down?
For Harry Giles III, there are no such specifics. With him, "can he play?" is a surface-level concern. Giles, entering his second season after coming off the board at No. 20 in the 2017 draft, has yet to play a minute of NBA basketball.
Once one of the top high school players in the country and a potential No. 1 overall pick, Giles underwent three surgeries between 2013 and 2017, including repairs to torn ACLs on both knees. He effectively redshirted his rookie season with the Sacramento Kings.
Have the operations and time off reduced Giles' athleticism and mobility to the point of NBA irrelevance? Or is he all the way back—and then some—after a year working on his body with a top-notch medical staff?
Ideally, Giles will look so healthy and explosive that he rises above the frontcourt logjam in Sacramento, leaving Marvin Bagley III, Willie Cauley-Stein, Zach Randolph, Skal Labissiere and Kosta Koufos to fight among themselves for minutes. The Kings, though, would probably be happy if Giles looked good enough to merely join the logjam.
Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento Kings
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A Kings double dip!
Look, when you haven't made the playoffs since 2006 and have become the league's transactional laughingstock, you don't have a lot to lose. So, logically, Sacramento and its players have the most to gain.
Marvin Bagley III must start by justifying why he came off the board at No. 2 in the 2018 draft, and why the Kings didn't take advantage of the trade offer that ultimately netted the Hawks an extra first-rounder from Dallas. If Sacramento could have put up a "we're drafting Doncic" smokescreen, snatched a pick and still gotten its man in Bagley, it's basically managerial malpractice to have missed that opportunity.
Bagley had better look good.
Despite no indications his game fits there, the Kings seem to think the 6'11" rookie can develop into a small forward, per the Sacramento Bee's Jason Jones. So if Bagley showcases a decent handle and stroke while not looking disoriented on defense, that'll qualify as a win. At worst, he's got to dominate the game athletically, swallowing up offensive boards and generating easy point-blank looks on offense.
Ultimately, the burden on Bagley is unfair. He needs to play well enough to disprove the established and routinely confirmed notion that the Kings have no idea what they're doing. If he performs well, then he'll secure a major role and vindicate a Sacramento front office that nobody believes in. If he falls flat, well...status quo intact.
This is an organization without a cornerstone. Maybe Bagley will play well enough to earn that designation.
Malik Beasley, Denver Nuggets
9 of 10
You don't see a lot of summer-league participants with two years of NBA experience, but Denver Nuggets guard Malik Beasley has so much to prove that it's no surprise he will be in Las Vegas ahead of the 2018-19 season.
Taken 19th in the 2016 draft, Beasley has the profile of a terrific scoring wing. He's an elite run-and-jump athlete with good form on his jumper and a 6'7" wingspan. Unfortunately, Beasley has been stuck behind better prospects (Jamal Murray and Gary Harris) and established bench scorers (Will Barton).
Barton's future is up in the air, and if he leaves via free agency (a good possibility in light of Denver's historic desire to avoid the luxury tax), there will be minutes available for Beasley. All he has to do to earn them is show better defensive awareness, knock down shots and leverage his athleticism into more open-floor scoring. There's no excuse for a guy with these springs to rank in the 34th percentile in transition scoring efficiency.
Denver is on the rise. Can Beasley be a part of the ascent, or will he be an afterthought—perhaps one whose fourth-year option gets declined?
One thing to watch out for: Beasley appeared to break out last summer, and it didn't amount to much. His performance will demand a critical eye.
Zach Collins, Portland Trail Blazers
10 of 10
For the Portland Trail Blazers to stay competitive with their current core, Zach Collins has to become the team's third-best player.
That's a tall order for a guy with one season of experience, but it's a reality for the Blazers, who don't have the means to add impactful outside help and whose only other path to a roster refreshment is a trade that'd break up the Damian Lillard-CJ McCollum combo.
If we can put any stock in a sample this small, Collins is already a fantastic rim-protector. Trim the field to guys who played at least 50 games and defended at least two shots per contest inside six feet, and Collins ranks first in defensive field-goal percentage allowed. Jusuf Nurkic may return on Portland's qualifying offer, and he's largely credited with the team's defensive leap last year. But there's evidence Collins could be even better on that end.
Collins must demonstrate improvement in his three-point shot (though his willingness to let fly as a rookie was encouraging), and it would be even more exciting if the 7-foot center displayed a hint of a fake-and-go dribble move to attack closeouts.
A standout showing from last year's 10th pick could change Portland's trajectory, giving it a low-cost impact player who fits perfectly with two dynamic guards. And for Collins, it would solidify him as one of the game's more promising young bigs.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass or NBA.com unless otherwise specified.
