New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick
The New York Yankees (51-25) will look to build off a win in the series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies (41-35) when they visit them Tuesday as large road favorites at the sportsbooks.
The Yankees doubled up the Phillies 4-2 on Monday after getting swept in three games by the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend.
MLB betting line: The Yankees opened as -185 favorites (wager $185 to win $100); the total is at 7.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
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MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 4.6-2.7, Yankees (MLB picks on every game)
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Why the Yankees can pay on the MLB lines
New York saw rookie Jonathan Loaisiga pitch another gem at Philadelphia in his third career start, moving to 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA after allowing one hit in five scoreless innings of work.
Next up in the rotation for the Bronx Bombers is ace Luis Severino (11-2, 2.24 ERA), who has suffered only one loss since April 10.
During that stretch, the Yankees have gone an impressive 12-1 in his starts, and he has given up three runs or less each time out. If Severino continues that trend, New York will have a great shot.
Why the Phillies can pay on the MLB lines
The Phillies hung around despite losing the series opener, and they are hoping Jake Arrieta (5-5, 3.42 ERA) can hold the Yankees in check to even things up here.
While Arrieta has not earned a victory since May 29, he did pitch well enough to win last time out against the St. Louis Cardinals, surrendering three runs and four hits in six innings. Philadelphia ended up winning 4-3, breaking a three-game skid with him on the mound.
In Arrieta's first year with the team, he has performed much better at home, too, posting a 3-1 mark and 2.08 ERA in seven starts there, with opposing batters hitting only .185.
Smart betting pick
The moneyline is simply too high on Severino in this spot, but there is definitely value on the runline.
Six of New York's past seven wins have been decided by two runs or more. In addition, 10 of Severino's 11 wins on the season have been decided by at least two runs, as he has received a lot of support.
For those reasons, take New York to keep winning big in the second of the three games.
MLB betting trends
New York is 18-7 in its last 25 games.
New York is 2-4 in its last six games on the road.
Philadelphia is 6-3 in its last nine games.
All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.
