The Real 2018 MLB All-Star Teams According to the Stats

There's what the Major League Baseball All-Star teams will probably look like, and then there's what they should look like.

We've already covered the former. Now it's time for the latter.

Our goal is to determine which players the American League and National League would bring to Nationals Park on July 17 if the statistics were in charge. And by "the statistics," we mean the average of players' wins above replacement at Baseball Reference and FanGraphs plus other metrics to help break ties.

Here are the ground rules for players:

• Position players must have made at least 150 plate appearances (see AL and NL qualifiers)
• Starting pitchers must have made at least 10 starts (AL and NL)
• Relief pitchers must have made at least 20 appearances (AL and NL)
• Players must be healthy or expected to be healthy by the All-Star break
• There need not be a representative for every MLB team

And here's how the rosters are comprised:

• 32 players per side
• 20 position players: a starting nine (including a handpicked DH for the NL) with a backup for each position (except designated hitter) and three wild cards
• 12 pitchers: eight starters and four relievers

Let's take it away.

Note: All stats accurate through play Sunday.

American League Starting 9

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

If the stats had their druthers, the AL starting lineup would look like this:

• C: Yan Gomes, CLE (1.3 WAR)
• 1B: Matt Olson, OAK (2.0 WAR)
• 2B: Jose Altuve, HOU (3.8 WAR)
• 3B: Jose Ramirez, CLE (5.2 WAR)
• SS: Francisco Lindor, CLE (4.5 WAR)
• LF: Aaron Judge, NYY (3.7 WAR)
• CF: Mike Trout, LAA (6.4 WAR)
• RF: Mookie Betts, BOS (4.4 WAR)
• DH: J.D. Martinez, BOS (3.1 WAR)

This starting nine mostly resembles the one that the fans want to see, save for a few exceptions.

One is at shortstop, where Manny Machado is notably absent. He has star power and big offensive numbers (.929 OPS and 19 home runs), but he's been slumping, and his value is hurt by his well-below-average defense.

Another notable absence is Jose Abreu at first base. Like Machado, he's also been slumping and doesn't have much to offer in the field.

The only other disparity is at catcher, where fans have been pulling for Wilson Ramos. To their credit, Ramos' .780 OPS is the best among qualified AL catchers. The catch is that Ramos is being held back by FanGraphs' low valuations of his baserunning and defense.

In place of Machado, it's hard to argue against Francisco Lindor, who's having yet another spectacular season both at the plate and in the field. For their parts, Matt Olson is rocking a solid .842 OPS since May 1, and Yan Gomes' offense (.777 OPS) is all the way out of the pit it fell into in 2016.

Otherwise, nobody should need convincing that Jose Altuve, Jose Ramirez, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez deserve their spots.

American League Bench

Michael Wyke/Associated Press

Backing up the AL's starting nine, meanwhile, should be these 11 guys:

• C: Wilson Ramos, TB (1.1 WAR)
• 1B: Mitch Moreland, BOS (1.8 WAR)
• 2B: Jed Lowrie, OAK (2.3 WAR)
• 3B: Matt Chapman, OAK (3.4 WAR)
• SS: Andrelton Simmons, LAA (3.1 WAR)
• SS: Jean Segura, SEA (2.8 WAR)
• SS: Carlos Correa, HOU (2.6 WAR)
• OF: Eddie Rosario, MIN (3.6 WAR)
• OF: Mitch Haniger, SEA (2.5 WAR)
• OF: Andrew Benintendi, BOS (2.5 WAR)
• OF: George Springer, HOU (2.5 WAR)

The one inclusion that might raise some eyebrows is Matt Chapman at third base. That won't be possible unless he recovers from a hand injury.

That may be more doable than it first appeared. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, doctors believe they've identified where Chapman's hand is injured. He may be back as soon as this weekend.

In any event, there's no question Chapman deserves to be an All-Star. He has a solid .793 OPS and 10 homers, and he's arguably the single best defender in MLB.

Chapman would join an infield comprised of two other first-time All-Stars (Mitch Moreland and Jed Lowrie) and the rest of the AL's best shortstops: Andrelton Simmons, Jean Segura and Carlos Correa. Machado is once again a notable omission, which gives an idea of how loaded the AL is at the position.

Elsewhere, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benintendi and George Springer are not to be lost in the shadows of Trout, Betts and Judge. They're all fine athletes and have a collective .874 OPS.

To round things out, Gary Sanchez actually has an edge on Ramos in WAR: 1.2 to 1.1. But Sanchez will be out three to four weeks with a groin injury, so it's not a given he'll be healthy by July 17.

National League Starting 9

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The fans would like to see an NL All-Star lineup with Buster Posey, Ozzie Albies, Brandon Crawford, Bryce Harper and Matt Kemp.

So, they may not like the lineup preferred by the stats:

• C: J.T. Realmuto, MIA (3.1 WAR)
• 1B: Freddie Freeman, ATL (3.4 WAR)
• 2B: Scooter Gennett, CIN (2.5 WAR)
• 3B: Nolan Arenado, COL (3.1 WAR)
• SS: Trea Turner, WAS (2.7 WAR)
• LF: Brandon Nimmo, NYM (2.6 WAR)
• CF: Lorenzo Cain, MIL (3.7 WAR)
• RF: Nick Markakis, ATL (2.6 WAR)
• DH: Joey Votto, CIN (2.8 WAR)

Harper just isn't having a great season despite his NL-high 19 homers. And while his offense has come roaring back to life, Kemp's value is once again being undercut by his defense. Albies, meanwhile, has gone cold since a hot start.

As for Posey and Crawford, they're just out of their depth compared to J.T. Realmuto and Trea Turner. The former is a quality defender who leads all catchers with a .916 OPS. The latter is getting it done at the plate (.753 OPS), on the bases (21 steals in 23 attempts) and in the field (10 defensive runs saved).

Regarding the rest of the lineup, Freddie Freeman and Nolan Arenado need no introduction. Neither does Joey Votto, whose NL-best .433 on-base percentage gives him the edge for DH duty.

At second base, Scooter Gennett is making his mark with an NL-high .332 average plus 13 home runs. And in the outfield, Brandon Nimmo, Lorenzo Cain and Nick Markakis are the best of a relatively weak crop.

Cain might be the best NL player at any position. He has an .832 OPS with eight homers and 16 steals in 19 attempts. He also leads all NL center fielders with 11 defensive runs saved.

National League Bench

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Lining up behind the NL's starters should be:

• C: Francisco Cervelli, PIT (2.1 WAR)
• 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (2.7 WAR)
• 1B: Brandon Belt, SFG (2.6 WAR)
• 2B: Ozzie Albies, ATL (2.1 WAR)
• 3B: Eugenio Suarez, CIN (2.8 WAR)
• 3B: Travis Shaw, MIL (2.2 WAR)
• 3B: Max Muncy, LAD (2.1 WAR)
• SS: Brandon Crawford, SFG (2.5 WAR)
• OF: Christian Yelich, MIL (2.1 WAR)
• OF: Odubel Herrera, PHI (2.1 WAR)
• OF: Brian Anderson, MIA (2.0 WAR)

Albies and Crawford are indeed having fine seasons despite their failure to make the cut for the starting lineup. So is Eugenio Suarez, who would be a choice to DH if not for Votto's expertise at the art of hitting.

Paul Goldschmidt (.904 OPS) and Brandon Belt (.922 OPS) are two more NL first basemen who are raking. Also brandishing a rake is Max Muncy, who's needed only 54 games to tally 15 homers and a .996 OPS. Those numbers are worthy of a wild-card spot over Javier Baez, who peaked early.

Also at third base, it's past time for Travis Shaw to get some recognition. He broke out with an .862 OPS and 31 homers in 2017. He now has an .819 OPS and 14 homers and sports quality defense at the hot corner.

Christian Yelich is overdue for recognition as well, while Francisco Cervelli has taken the long road to his own recognition. The 32-year-old has become a surprise star with an .876 OPS and nine homers.

Last but not least, there are two outfielders from the National League East. Odubel Herrera has kicked his offense up several notches to an .863 OPS. Brian Anderson is hitting a solid .294/.369/.415, and he's proved to be a better right fielder than he was a third baseman.

American League Starting Pitcher: Chris Sale

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

In all probability, it'll be Cleveland Indians ace Corey Kluber who gets the nod to start for the AL.

By all rights, however, Chris Sale should draw his third straight Midsummer Classic start.

Sale's average WAR of 3.9 is the same as New York Yankees right-hander Luis Severino, who would also be an excellent choice to start. But when it comes down to how much these two have dominated in 2018, Statcast's xwOBA metric (based partially on quality of contact) gives Sale a significant edge.

That's befitting of a longtime ace who's arguably better than ever.

In 2017, the Boston Red Sox left-hander became the first AL pitcher to top 300 strikeouts since Pedro Martinez in 1999. He's on pace to do it again with 153 strikeouts through his first 17 starts. And if his recent radar gun readings are any indication, he won't be slowing down.

Meanwhile, Sale has also walked only 28 batters and given up just 10 home runs in 109 innings.

American League Bullpen

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Fear not, Severino and Kluber, for you belong in an All-Star bullpen that looks like this:

• RHP: Luis Severino, NYY (3.9 WAR)
• RHP: Corey Kluber, CLE (3.8 WAR)
• RHP: Justin Verlander, HOU (3.8 WAR)
• RHP: Trevor Bauer, CLE (3.6 WAR)
• RHP: Gerrit Cole, HOU (2.7 WAR)
• RHP: Mike Clevinger, CLE (2.7 WAR)
• RHP: Jose Berrios, MIN (2.5 WAR)
• LHP: Aroldis Chapman, NYY (1.8 WAR)
• RHP: Blake Treinen, OAK (1.7 WAR)
• RHP: Edwin Diaz, SEA (1.4 WAR)
• RHP: Joe Jimenez, DET (1.2 WAR)

Severino, Kluber and Justin Verlander are more names for the "Needs No Introduction" file.

Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole should also be in that group. The former UCLA teammates are in the middle of huge breakouts, consisting of a 2.44 ERA for Bauer and 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings for Cole.

There's a substantial dropoff in quality from those guys to Mike Clevinger and Jose Berrios, but neither is to be underestimated.

The fact that Clevinger has allowed just seven home runs in 99 innings gets at why he's rocking a 3.00 ERA. Berrios is building on his 2017 breakout with a 3.15 ERA through 103 innings.

As far as relievers go, Aroldis Chapman's 1.07 ERA and 15.2 K/9 underscore the especially dominant season—even by his standards—he's having. Blake Treinen has used his filthy sinker to rack up an even better ERA: 0.98. Edwin Diaz has earned his MLB-best 27 saves with a 2.77 ERA and 14.8 K/9.

Lastly, Joe Jimenez and Chad Green are tied with an average of 1.2 WAR. The xwOBA test, however, significantly favors Jimenez and his 1.98 ERA.

National League Starting Pitcher: Jacob deGrom

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

It's about time Jacob deGrom got a win.

The New York Mets right-hander has a modest 5-3 record through 16 starts, yet he's a living, breathing example of how dumb it is to judge modern pitchers by their records. His 1.69 ERA is the best in the NL, and he also boasts nearly 100 more strikeouts (126) than walks (27) in 101.1 innings.

"Arguably, statistically he's the best pitcher in the National League," Colorado Rockies manager Bud Black said. "This guy's good. This guy has proven over the last two years that he's in the conversation of one of the best pitchers in baseball."

Mind you, one guy who might care to have this argument is Max Scherzer.

The Washington Nationals ace has a 2.09 ERA as well as astonishing peripherals across the board. Best of all is his 161-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That gives him a fair shot at the ultra-rare feat of accumulating 300 more strikeouts than walks.

Still, deGrom has the run-prevention advantage. And despite Scherzer's peripherals, there's hardly any difference between him and his NL East rival in the xwOBA department.

National League Bullpen

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Obviously, Scherzer deserves to be in the NL's bullpen alongside:

• RHP: Max Scherzer, WAS (4.1 WAR)
• RHP: Aaron Nola, PHI (3.6 WAR)
• LHP: Patrick Corbin, ARI (2.4 WAR)
• RHP: Ross Stripling, LAD (2.4 WAR)
• LHP: Kyle Freeland, COL (2.3 WAR)
• RHP: Mike Foltynewicz, ATL (2.2 WAR)
• RHP: Miles Mikolas, STL (2.2 WAR)
• LHP: Josh Hader, MIL (2.2 WAR)
• RHP: Adam Ottavino, COL (1.9 WAR)
• LHP: Sean Doolittle, WAS (1.5 WAR)
• LHP: Tony Watson, SFG (1.3 WAR)

The one question many readers might have is: What about Jon Lester?

The Chicago Cubs' veteran left-hander boasts a 2.10 ERA through 15 starts. But he also has iffy peripheral stats, which raise questions about how much he's been helped by Lady Luck and his excellent defense.

Aaron Nola has better peripherals behind his 2.58 ERA. Ditto for Mike Foltynewicz and his 2.16 ERA and Miles Mikolas and his 2.69 ERA. Patrick Corbin has "only" a 3.24 ERA, but he's done so with 129 strikeouts in 100 innings.

Elsewhere in the National League West, Ross Stripling is rolling with a 1.87 ERA in nine starts since moving into the Los Angeles Dodgers starting rotation. Kyle Freeland hasn't been on that kind of roll, but any Rockies pitcher who can put up a 3.55 ERA can drink from any canteen he wants.

As relievers go, baseball has never seen anything like Josh Hader and his 18.2 K/9. Adam Ottavino has routinely defied physics en route to a 0.79 ERA in 32 appearances. Sean Doolittle has a 0.53 WHIP, and MLB.com's Mike Petriello laid out a convincing argument for the lefty as MLB's best reliever in general.

That leaves the final spot, which Tony Watson, Jeremy Jeffress and Jared Hughes tied for with 1.3 WAR averages. Of the three, xwOBA favors Watson by a nose.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.