NBA Teams That Will Regret Their 2018 NBA Draft Pick
The 2018 draft field was perceived as strong by NBA evaluators. Every team in the first round seemed to have added a contributor.
But five organizations made picks we disagreed with based on their roster and who was available.
It's not as much a knock on the prospects involved as it is on management's view of their new rookie's outlook and fit relative to who could have been taken instead.
Phoenix Suns
1 of 5
The pick at No. 1: Deandre Ayton
Better option: Luka Doncic
The Phoenix Suns looked right past Luka Doncic and straight to Deandre Ayton. And we're betting they'll eventually regret it.
The case for Doncic, Bleacher Report's No. 1 overall prospect, over Ayton revolves around the battle of stats versus impact. And there is no doubt Ayton has a great chance to become a 20-point, 10-rebound regular producer. But will the numbers translate to wins?
While Ayton and Arizona underachieved in terms of team success, getting bounced by Buffalo in the NCAA tournament, Doncic earned a gold medal at EuroBasket, was MVP of Euroleague and won championship titles of both Euroleague and the Spanish ACB. The competition he faced was far stiffer than what Ayton saw in college.
Ayton will now anchor the league's No. 30-ranked defense, per ESPN. And if there was one knock all scouts agreed on, it's that he showed poor instincts in rim protection.
Offensively, Ayton operates mostly in the post in an era that's moving away from post scorers. He can make outside shots, but shooting isn't a strength (12-of-35 3PT). Is this the right team for a top option who spends most of his time working one-on-one from the mid-range area while teammates stand around him?
Doncic would have helped keep the ball moving and create quality shots for others.
Phoenix did a great job of acquiring Mikal Bridges and stealing Elie Okobo at No. 31. But the Suns may have been better off drafting Doncic and trying to sign a defensive center in free agency.
Sacramento Kings
2 of 5
The pick at No. 2: Marvin Bagley III
Better options: Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
The Sacramento Kings acknowledged their mediocre frontcourt and chose to address it at No. 2, passing on Doncic in the process.
But did they pick the right big man in Marvin Bagley III? Bleacher Report had Jaren Jackson Jr. ranked higher for his far-better defense, more convincing shooting and superior physical profile.
In 350 fewer minutes, Jackson blocked 77 more shots than Bagley, whose 39.7 percent three-point mark is red-flagged by a 62.7 percent mark from the free-throw line. Meanwhile, Jackson made 2.0 threes per 40 minutes (39.6 percent) to Bagley's 0.8 and shot 79.7 percent at the stripe.
Regardless, the bigger regret will be passing on Doncic, who could have been an ideal backcourt partner for De'Aaron Fox. While Fox gives the Kings penetration and defensive quickness, Doncic would have complemented him with size, passing and three-point shooting.
Bagley ultimately filled the bigger need, but the Kings' roster was too far away for management to worry about specific holes. We thought they passed on two better prospects, including one in Jackson who played Bagley's position.
Atlanta Hawks
3 of 5
The pick at No. 3: Luka Doncic, traded for Trae Young and future projected first-round pick
Better options: Keeping Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
The Atlanta Hawks clearly viewed Trae Young and Doncic as near equals, taking Doncic and swapping him for Young without any other players involved. We're calling that a mistake, and a future protected first-round pick from Dallas doesn't make up the difference.
It's a simple case of misevaluation when weighing one prospect versus another. Atlanta also isn't ideal for Young, who became frustrated over the final two months at Oklahoma when opponents began game-planning defensively around him.
"I'm getting guarded like nobody else in the country is being guarded, scouted on like no one else in the country is," Young told reporters after a February loss to Texas, per ESPN. "It's a mystery coming out each and every game to try and figure out how a team is going to guard me and how I'm going to dictate how my team wins."
It won't be any different or easier for Young in Atlanta, where Dennis Schroder and Taurean Prince represent the Hawks' top options.
Doncic, listed at 6'6", 219 pounds, is better equipped to handle the defensive pressure and attention. And he's already proven himself by beating up on pros, including NBA players at EuroBasket, as a teenager over the past year.
The idea of a Young-Schroder pairing defensively is also a scary thought.
The Hawks could have even taken Jackson, whose defensive upside and shooting would have complemented John Collins' inside scoring and rebounding.
Utah Jazz
4 of 5
The pick at No. 21: Grayson Allen
Better options: Aaron Holiday, Elie Okobo, Chandler Hutchison
No. 21 seemed high for Grayson Allen, particularly given who was available and the Utah Jazz's roster.
With Ricky Rubio entering the final year of his deal, Aaron Holiday and Elie Okobo jumped out as bigger needs who fell in the same tier of talent as Allen.
Holiday just averaged 20.3 points and 5.8 assists while shooting over 40.0 percent from three for the third straight season. The Jazz could have used the year grooming him into Rubio's replacement. In the meantime, he could have played off the ball as well, being that Holiday was also one of the nation's top spot-up shooters (98th percentile, 49.4 percent).
Allen turns 23 years old in October and shot 20-of-66 on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers last season. He had his best year as Duke's featured scorer in 2015-16 (21.6 points per game, 46.6 percent FG). As his touches and shots were reduced over the last two seasons, his efficiency and consistency fell off.
He's a streaky offensive player who won't offer any defensive value, whereas Holiday is a steady shot-maker and really pressures opposing point guards.
Philadelphia 76ers
5 of 5
The pick at No. 26: Landry Shamet
Better options: Robert Williams, Jacob Evans
With their second first-round pick, the Philadelphia 76ers took Landry Shamet, presumably for his shooting. It's just difficult to picture him ever getting a chance to play and develop with this roster.
Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz , TJ McConnell, Jerryd Bayless and Timothe Luwawu remain ahead in the pecking order for next season. And there is still a chance the Sixers can bring back JJ Redick in free agency.
They also drafted Mikal Bridges and then traded him for Zhaire Smith 10 picks earlier. That's another player who'll likely be prioritized over Shamet.
We would have gone with either of the two players who went directly after Shamet. Robert Williams could have given the Sixers' frontcourt an elite-level athlete and Joel Embiid a rim-protecting backup. Jacob Evans offered the versatility to play and guard both wing positions.
Shamet is a legitimate NBA prospect whose jumper and passing IQ are attractive strengths. But will he have the chance to develop them in Philadelphia? There appeared to be other players on the board with similar upside and clearer paths to the rotation.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports.
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