Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

Two teams looking to make a run at the National League East lead will square off Friday when the Washington Nationals (40-33) host the Philadelphia Phillies (39-33) as small home favorites for the series opener of a three-game set.

The Nationals trail the division-leading Atlanta Braves by three games, while the Phillies are a half-game back of them and have won seven of 10 overall.

MLB betting line: The Nationals opened as -147 favorites (wager $147 to win $100); the total is at nine runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 4.2-4.1, Phillies (MLB picks on every game)

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Why the Phillies can pay on the MLB lines

After losing four straight games along with seven of eight, Philadelphia has rebounded nicely to stay in the division race.

The key for the team has been a resurgent offense, with the Phillies averaging six runs in their last seven wins and scoring at least four runs in each of them.

When they dropped seven of eight, they scored three runs or less five times during that stretch.

Philadelphia will be sending one of its best pitchers to the mound in the first game, too, as Zach Eflin (4-2, 3.43 ERA) is riding a personal three-game winning streak.

The 24-year-old has allowed a total of four runs and 14 hits in 18.2 innings over that period, walking just three batters and striking out 17.

Why the Nationals can pay on the MLB lines

Washington's Tanner Roark (3-7, 3.87 ERA) will counter Eflin, and he has been a tough-luck loser lately.

In his past five starts, the Nationals have lost four of them, as they have managed to score two runs or less three times.

In the five wins with the 31-year-old on the hill, they have averaged 5.6 runs, so he just needs some more offensive support.

They lost 3-1 to the Phillies with Roark starting at home on May 5, and he gave up three runs and six hits in 6.1 innings with three walks and a season-high nine strikeouts.

If he can pitch like that again in this spot, Washington should pick up a win.

Smart betting pick

These teams have played only three games against each other this season, with the Nationals taking two of them in early May. Roark suffered the lone loss, but he will be primed to rebound and earn a victory here.

Washington has gone 11-6 in the past 17 meetings, according to the OddsShark MLB Database, and will get him a win.

MLB betting trends

Philadelphia is 4-1 in its last five games.

Philadelphia is 3-6 in its last nine games on the road.

The total has gone under in 17 of Washington's last 23 games.

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.