World Cup Odds 2018: Group-Stage Predictions Based on Vegas Lines
Germany, Brazil, France and Argentina are all fancied by oddsmakers to win their respective groups at the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia. Vegas lines tip these heavyweights to get off to winning starts once the group stage begins.
Yet while it's safe to go with the odds for these nations, Uruguay, Nigeria and Senegal could defy the bookies.
La Celeste can win Group A ahead of hosts Russia, while the Super Eagles can beat Croatia to runner-up behind Argentina in Group D. The Lions of Teranga could also emerge from a closely contested Group H.
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Uruguay's meeting with Egypt will kick off both nations' respective campaigns on Friday, and Nigeria line up against Croatia a day later.
Below are odds for the first week of group-stage matches, per OddsShark:
Thursday, June 14
Russia vs. Saudi Arabia (Group A): Russia -245. Saudi Arabia +750. Draw +335.
Friday, June 15
Egypt vs. Uruguay (Group A): Egypt +575. Uruguay -200. Draw +310.
Morocco vs. Iran (Group B): Morocco -106. Iran +320. Draw +230.
Portugal vs. Spain (Group B): Portugal +340. Spain -106. Draw +220.
Saturday, June 16
France vs. Australia (Group C): France -435. Australia +1400. Draw +480.
Argentina vs. Iceland (Group D): Argentina -245. Iceland +650. Draw +335.
Peru vs. Denmark (Group C): Peru +290. Denmark +104. Draw +225.
Croatia vs. Nigeria (Group D): Croatia -155. Nigeria +475. Draw +265.
Sunday, June 17
Costa Rica vs. Serbia (Group E): Costa Rica +430. Serbia -143. Draw +260.
Germany vs. Mexico (Group F): Germany -182. Mexico +550. Draw +290.
Brazil vs. Switzerland (Group E): Brazil -315. Switzerland +1050. Draw +390.
Monday, June 18
Sweden vs. South Korea (Group F): Sweden -200. South Korea +575. Draw +310.
Belgium vs. Panama (Group G): Belgium -770. Panama +1900. Draw +750.
Tunisia vs. England (Group G): Tunisia +1050. England -315. Draw +390.
Tuesday, June 19
Colombia vs. Japan (Group H): Colombia -141. Japan +410. Draw +270.
Poland vs. Senegal (Group H): Poland +118. Senegal +240. Draw +230.
Russia vs. Egypt (Group A): Russia -200. Egypt +575. Draw +290.
Wednesday, June 20
Portugal vs. Morocco (Group B): Portugal -155. Morocco +425. Draw +290.
Uruguay vs. Saudi Arabia (Group A): Uruguay -315. Saudi Arabia +750. Draw +460.
Iran vs. Spain (Group B): Iran +1300. Spain -590. Draw +650.
Thursday, June 21
Denmark vs. Australia (Group C): Denmark -143. Australia +370. Draw +300.
France vs. Peru (Group C): France -335. Peru +800. Draw +480.
Argentina vs. Croatia (Group D): Argentina +138. Croatia +200. Draw +230.
Oddschecker has odds for each group:
Group A
- Uruguay: 10/11
- Russia: 9/4
- Egypt: 7/1
- Saudi Arabia: 50/1
Group B
- Spain: 4/6
- Portugal: 9/4
- Morocco: 16/1
- Iran: 33/1
Group C
- France: 5/11
- Denmark: 63/13
- Peru: 10/1
- Australia: 26/1
Group D
- Argentina: 4/6
- Croatia: 12/5
- Nigeria: 11/1
- Iceland: 18/1
Group E
- Brazil: 4/11
- Switzerland: 7/1
- Serbia: 8/1
- Costa Rica: 22/1
Group F
- Germany: 4/9
- Mexico: 13/2
- Sweden: 41/5
- South Korea: 25/1
Group G
- Belgium: 16/19
- England: 13/8
- Tunisia: 25/1
- Panama: 50/1
Group H
- Colombia: 13/8
- Poland: 11/5
- Senegal 50/11
- Japan: 8/1
Egypt and Uruguay to Produce an Early Thriller
Uruguay will impress against Egypt but without producing the kind of scoreline odds of -200 in the South American nation's favour would indicate. The Pharaohs simply possess too much quality in midfield and forward areas to be overwhelmed.
Most of that quality comes from Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah. He brilliantly combines pace and flair with keen instincts and perceptive movement.
It will be vital for Uruguay to win the midfield battle and keep Salah short of supply. Fortunately for La Celeste, Juventus gem Rodrigo Bentancur and reported Arsenal target Lucas Torreira are available to boss proceedings in the middle.
If Uruguay find their fluency in possession early, Egypt's defence will struggle to cope. However, the South Americans don't always play expansively enough to take advantage of star strikers Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani.
If Uruguay are overly cautious, expect Egypt to make odds of +310 for a draw appealing.
Prediction: Egypt 2-2 Uruguay
Nigeria Will Force a Losing Start on Croatia
It will be a mild shock when Nigeria edge past Croatia in Group D on Saturday. The latter have enough familiar names and technical quality to justify being second favourites in a group also featuring 2014 finalists Argentina.
Even so, Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic, Ivan Rakitic and Mario Mandzukic will find themselves overpowered by Nigeria.
The Super Eagles will reward bettors at +475 thanks to their brawn up front, where Odion Ighalo and Kelechi Iheanacho will bully a Croatian defence still led by Liverpool centre-back Dejan Lovren.
Nigeria also have enough strength and guile in midfield to keep Modric and Co. quiet. Premier League trio Alex Iwobi, Wilfred Ndidi and Victor Moses will ensure Nigeria stay on the front foot in this one.
Prediction: Croatia 1-2 Nigeria
Group H Will be the Closest in the Group Stage
Of all the pools, Group H is likely to be the closest. There isn't one standout team, but all four have capable players in key positions.
Colombia should be the strongest, thanks to strikers Radamel Falcao and Carlos Bacca, as well as classy No. 10 James Rodriguez. However, coach Jose Pekerman's style is often too pragmatic to take full advantage of his talented attackers.
Japan can't match Colombia's firepower, but there is ample ingenuity in midfield. Shinji Kagawa and Keisuke Honda will create enough chances to believe the Samurai Blue will be a factor in the group.
One team that shouldn't be overlooked is Senegal. Premier League trio Sadio Mane, Idrissa Gueye and Cheikhou Kouyate will make this team a force.
Finally, Poland will compete as long as Bayern Munich ace Robert Lewandwoski remains deadly in front of goal. Lukasz Piszczek, Jakub Blaszczykowski, Grzegorz Krychowiak and Piotr Zielinski will keep the formidable No. 9 regularly supplied.
This group is difficult to call, but Colombia should just about edge it. The surprise will be Senegal rewarding brave bettors by ultimately outperforming Japan and Poland.
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