2018 NHL Free Agents: Latest Rumors and Predictions for Notable Names
The 2018 NHL free-agent class isn't particularly strong. While there could be a handful of high-impact players available come July 1, there's a rapid and real drop-off after the first handful of big names.
Organizations looking for a big fish could end up going after John Tavares or John Carlson, while players like Rick Nash and Mike Green could be attractive veteran depth adds for contenders.
These situations are fluid, of course. For instance, we won't be able to rule out the possibility of Tavares re-signing with the New York Islanders until he says "I'm gone" or the team indicates as much. Don't expect something like that to unfold in the coming weeks, however.
John Tavares Situation As Convoluted as Ever
When Steven Stamkos was set to potentially hit the free-agent market two years ago, the scenario was pretty simple. Stamkos needed to decide whether he wanted to spend the rest of his prime with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and there wasn't a whole lot else to consider aside from the usual state-tax situations and the like.
At least when compared to the Tavares situation in New York. The Islanders probably weren't going to be able to keep their franchise center if they didn't know where they'd be playing their home games for the foreseeable future.
The Barclays Center experiment was a disaster, and Tavares was looking at reupping with a team that didn't have a home arena to play at. At least that was the case until the Islanders won the Belmont Park arena bid.
The Isles' project is a massive one, but at least Tavares knows that he'll eventually be playing half of his games at a cutting-edge, state-of-the-art arena. That's a huge step forward compared to where things stood last year.
The Islanders also jumped at the opportunity to add Lou Lamoriello as president of hockey operations when he no longer fit in with the Toronto Maple Leafs' plans. It took him all of two weeks to remove Garth Snow from the general manager's chair and Doug Weight as the head coach.
According to Andrew Gross of Newsday, these moves reportedly pleased Tavares, who simply wants to play for a winner.
Prediction
After coming all this way, it'd have to be tough for Tavares to pass on the opportunity to see what kinds of offers will be made available to him July 1.
His next contract doesn't appear to be about money, but he still has a good chance of becoming the league's second-highest-paid player behind Connor McDavid this summer. It's about winning a Stanley Cup for the 27-year-old, so we think he'll at least listen to what's out there before deciding on his future in New York.
John Carlson Is Going to Get Paid
As in P-A-I-D, PAID.
It's just a matter of where the defenseman is going to land. Marquee blueliners rarely become available on the open market—teams generally have to draft them, or trade a top-line center or equally skilled defenseman back—and Carlson has done nothing but add to his value this season.
He led the NHL in scoring among all defensemen with 68 points in 82 games and has been dynamite for the Washington Capitals during their run to the Stanley Cup Final. Carlson has notched more points than any other defender in the postseason and has looked every bit as dynamic as advertised.
He's proved capable of running a No. 1 power-play unit, anchoring a top pairing, killing penalties and playing north of 25 minutes per contest. To reiterate: Carlson could receive a contract worth more than $8 million per season should he decide to test the free-agent market.
Prediction
Why is it assumed that the 28-year-old won't be back in Washington next season? The Capitals are on the verge of winning the Stanley Cup, have a wonderful core in place and will likely have cap space to spend on Carlson to boot.
Would the cap-hit fit be a tight one? For sure, but general manager Brian McLellan has already publically stated that he'd do everything he could to bring Carlson back. With the salary cap reportedly jumping to between $78 and $82 million next season and the Capitals sitting on around $8.5 million in cap space, there should be enough cash available to keep the defenseman in town.
One sleeper team to keep an eye on here is the New Jersey Devils. They're a team on the rise and badly need to beef up their blue line to take that next step. General manager Ray Shero doesn't like to add big fish via the free-agency pond, but maybe he'd make an exception for Carlson.
Paul Stastny Interested in Returning to St. Louis
One of the most intriguing deals around the NHL's trade deadline was the St. Louis Blues shipping Paul Stastny to the Winnipeg Jets for a first-round pick and prospect Erik Foley. Never the top-line center the Blues had hoped he'd be, the veteran clicked wonderfully in Winnipeg as a No. 2 pivot.
That's the kind of role that the 32-year-old is best suited for at this stage of his career. He'd be a solid top-six center or an above-average No. 3 option for a contender. Interestingly enough, Stastny recently expressed interest in returning to the Blues as a free agent.
Speaking to Andy Strickland on The Fan 590 in St. Louis, Stastny had the following to say when asked if he'd want to return to the Blues (h/t Scott Billeck of NBCSports.com): "Absolutely. I don't think I've closed the door on anything. I know it's a business; getting older, you see it...I always keep everything open because you never know what's going to happen."
Prediction
If Stastny is willing to take a pay cut, then perhaps there's a fit in St. Louis. He hit the cap for $7 million with his last deal, and that's a number the Blues shouldn't be willing to take on again. However, if he doesn't have a problem making somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 million in Missouri, then perhaps there's a fit.
This is a weak free-agency class, though, and it's not tough to imagine a general manager shelling out something in the range of $6-7 million per year for Stastny. If the center wants to return, then it needs to be on terms that make sense for the Blues. If that doesn't shake out, then perhaps he'd be willing to stick around with the Jets for another two or three years.
They've got a great young core in place there, and Stastny called waiving his no-trade clause to go there the "best decision" he's ever made, according to the Winnipeg Sun.
