Deal or No Deal: MLB Trade Predictions 2 Months from the Deadline
It may seem like the 2018 Major League Baseball season just started, but the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline is already only two months away.
That means it's no longer too early for some projections.
Ahead are 10 predictions for things that will happen at the trade deadline. The majority of these concern where specific trade candidates will end up. The others cover the most surprising deal and non-deal, as well as which on-the-fence contenders will or won't sell.
Let's get to it.
Manny Machado Goes to the Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 10
The Baltimore Orioles are off to a putrid 17-39 start in Manny Machado's walk year. Add these factors together, and you get one hell of an inevitable trade.
There's been plenty of chatter about the Chicago Cubs being the top fit for the 25-year-old shortstop, who's boosted his value with a 1.004 OPS and 16 home runs. Other popular suitors include the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.
Nobody needs him more than the Arizona Diamondbacks, however.
There are reasons aplenty for why the D-backs have followed a 20-8 start with a 8-19 slump in May. By far the biggest is that their offense has deteriorated to a point where it now ranks 28th in runs per game.
And yet, the Diamondbacks' upside remains high. They can win with their pitching and defense in the short term. In the long term, they can bank on Paul Goldschmidt to get hot and A.J. Pollock, Steven Souza Jr., Robbie Ray and Shelby Miller to get healthy.
A trade for Machado could therefore supercharge the D-backs for the stretch run. It also happens to be something they had interest in over the winter, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. And in right-hander Jon Duplantier (No. 66 prospect on MLB.com), they have an ideal prospect to serve as a centerpiece.
J.T. Realmuto Goes to the Boston Red Sox
2 of 10
The Miami Marlins could have honored J.T. Realmuto's request to be traded as part of their massive offseason fire sale. Instead, they now stand to collect a big reward for holding off.
The 27-year-old is fully realizing his potential by way of 1.8 wins above replacement to lead all catchers, according to Baseball Reference. Throw in how he's under club control through 2020, and he's a hugely valuable trade chip.
The perfect suitor for Realmuto is a contender with a dire need at catcher and a front office shot-caller who's willing to be bold.
So, pretty much Dave Dombrowski and the Boston Red Sox.
There haven't been any solid rumors linking Realmuto to Boston, but the state of its catching corps could change that in a hurry. Through their combination of nonexistent offense and good-not-great defense, Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez have combined for minus-0.9 WAR.
The Red Sox lead MLB with a 39-17 record, so this weakness obviously isn't holding them back now. But they must worry about ultimately matching up with the New York Yankees' bats and the Houston Astros' arms.
That's a perfect excuse for Dombrowski to add to his history of blockbuster trades.
Chris Archer Goes to the Milwaukee Brewers
3 of 10
Things were looking iffy for a while, but Chris Archer's trade value is coming back around.
The hard-throwing righty struggled with a 7.84 ERA through his first four starts of 2018. But in eight starts since, he's posted a 2.84 ERA while collecting over three times as many strikeouts (46) as walks (15) and allowing only five home runs.
The Tampa Bay Rays control Archer through 2021 at reasonable rates, so they don't have to trade him. But if their recent trade of Alex Colome and Denard Span to the Seattle Mariners is any indication, they're already open for business for the summer.
Archer, 29, has a wide range of appeal, but it's a safe guess that he'll end up with the team that needs him the most and has enough young talent for a deal: the Milwaukee Brewers.
A hot stretch has shot the Brewers to the top of the National League at 36-21. Yet it's hard to be enthusiastic about their starting rotation, which boasts a 4.21 ERA and a low strikeout rate.
.png?w=256)
Cole Hamels Goes to the Philadelphia Phillies
4 of 10
Sure, Cole Hamels to the Philadelphia Phillies is a little on the nose. Yet, it also makes perfect sense.
Following a rough 2017, the 34-year-old left-hander is back on track with a 3.74 ERA through 11 starts for the Texas Rangers. But since he's in the final guaranteed year of his contract and they're going nowhere, he fits better on the trade market than he does in the Rangers' rotation.
The catch has to do with money. Hamels is making $22.5 million this year, and he has at least another $6 million due his way this offseason. This limits his scope of suitors by default. The luxury-tax concerns of teams like the Cubs, Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers may further limit it.
The Phillies are a different story.
They opened 2018 with just a $95.3 million payroll. That puts them hilariously short of their full spending power, which means their financial muscle is the best thing they'll have going for them on the summer trade market.
Hamels is the ideal player for whom to flex that muscle. He'd fit well alongside Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta, and the Phillies obviously know firsthand that he can handle himself in a pennant race.
Kelvin Herrera Goes the Houston Astros
5 of 10
The Kansas City Royals haven't made any impact trades yet, but Jon Heyman of the FRS Network reported that they're "'quietly' letting other teams know they expect to have a 'for sale' sign up soon."
Although the Royals have a little something for everyone, their most popular trade chip is sure to be Kelvin Herrera. Good relievers are always in high demand at the trade deadline. And between his track record and his 0.83 ERA through 22 appearances this season, he qualifies as a damn good one.
To boot, Herrera is a rental. His acquisition cost will be high but not high enough to ward off swaths of contenders.
To list just a few, Herrera makes sense for the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays. But he probably makes the most sense for the Astros.
Overall, Houston's bullpen is doing just fine with a 3.02 ERA and an MLB-best 4.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. No thanks to Ken Giles' struggles, however, ninth innings have been on the adventurous side.
Were a trade for Herrera to fix that, the Astros would have all the puzzle pieces for a second straight World Series title.
Danny Duffy Will Be the Most Surprising Non-Trade
6 of 10
Alas, the Royals figure to have a more difficult time trading Danny Duffy.
The lefty has been an obvious trade candidate for months, and he still has some appeal based on his impressive track record. However, his track record is now being eclipsed by a truly awful 2018 performance highlighted by a 6.14 ERA and 14 home runs allowed in 58.2 innings.
"I am pitching awful right now," he told reporters following a shellacking at the hands of the Yankees on May 19. "I don't know what else to say."
One silver lining is that Duffy's velocity is improving over time. But that's not erasing the red flag that is his lower release point. That could be a hint that this oft-injured pitcher has a hidden physical problem.
Meanwhile, Duffy's contract is paying him $14 million this year with another $46 million due between 2019 and 2021. That isn't outrageous money, but it no longer looks like a bargain.
The Royals may have to choose between moving Duffy in a salary dump or eating some of his contract in order to get legitimate prospects. Or, they could go through Door No. 3: hold on to him and hope he rebuilds his value.
At this point, the latter is destined to be their best play.
Michael Fulmer Will Be the Most Surprising Player Traded
7 of 10
Given how often he's been mentioned as a trade candidate, perhaps it's a tough sell that a deal involving Michael Fulmer would be a surprise.
There are forces working against the idea, however. The Detroit Tigers are better than expected in the first year of their rebuild, and Fulmer is under their control through 2022. Beyond that, he's not having the best of seasons in the wake of elbow surgery.
According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, however, the Tigers aren't about to keep the 2016 American League Rookie of the Year off the table. All they need is the right offer.
Not many teams can make one, but the Yankees are just the squad to do so.
The Yankees made an offer for Fulmer when they were searching for starting pitching help over the winter, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Their need for help has only grown since then, as they're dealing with an injury to Jordan Montgomery and poor performances from Masahiro Tanaka and Sonny Gray.
"I feel like we need pitching, more than anything else," general manager Brian Cashman said recently, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.
There's more than enough talent in the Yankees' system to reel in a fish the size of Fulmer. And with his blazing fastball, he'd fit right in with the team's championship blueprint.
The New York Mets Will Sell
8 of 10
The New York Mets racked up 11 wins through their first 12 games, giving them an early lead in the National League East.
Since then, even the 16-24 record they've endured doesn't fully encapsulate their bleak outlook for the rest of 2018.
The Mets are paying the price for carrying an aging lineup. Yoenis Cespedes is injured yet again, and the 32-year-old is just one member of a disabled list that includes Todd Frazier, Juan Lagares, Wilmer Flores and Travis d'Arnaud.
The youth the Mets have on the mound isn't proving to be a safeguard against injury either. Noah Syndergaard went on the DL on Tuesday, where he joined AJ Ramos, Anthony Swarzak and Rafael Montero. Now, Steven Matz may be next.
The Mets' 27-26 record means they're still technically contenders. But the Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies are leaving them behind in the NL East race, and the NL wild-card race is plenty crowded in its own right.
It all looks like too much for the Mets to overcome. Ultimately, they'll have to salvage their season by trading Jeurys Familia, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jerry Blevins and others to give their farm system a needed boost.
The Minnesota Twins Will Sell
9 of 10
Following their surprise wild-card berth in 2017, the Minnesota Twins made a spirited attempt to go for another postseason run in 2018. They had one of the better offseasons of any team in MLB.
The early returns have been disappointing.
Logan Morrison's struggles are no help to a line that ranks last in the American League in runs scored. Lance Lynn has dragged down a rotation that's otherwise been solid. In the bullpen, the Fernando Rodney is part of a meltdown problem.
Things also look grim for Minnesota's potential reinforcements. Ervin Santana is enduring a rough recovery from finger surgery. Joe Mauer is out with a concussion, meaning the Twins will have to be careful with him even after he gets healthy.
At 22-29, the only reason the Twins can even think about contending is because the Cleveland Indians aren't running away with the AL Central lead. But they're just a few bullpen upgrades away from doing so.
So, the Twins will have no choice but to be smart this summer. If they cash in on trade interest in players such as Brian Dozier, Jake Odorizzi, Lynn and Zach Duke, they can position themselves for a stronger run in 2019.
The Toronto Blue Jays Won't Sell
10 of 10
As things stand now, the Toronto Blue Jays look like a candidate for a massive sell-off.
A poor May has pushed them deep in the AL East standings at 25-31. Among their problems are too many stars who are either injured, underperforming or in trouble with the law.
And yet, the Blue Jays have hope.
They stand to get a boost from the looming promotion of 19-year-old phenom Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a 1.166 OPS at Double-A. If the Jays put him at third base and release Kendrys Morales so Josh Donaldson can slide into regular action at designated hitter, suddenly their lineup looks pretty good.
The Blue Jays also stand to get back some injured players in June. Marcus Stroman and Troy Tulowitzki lead the pack, followed by Aledmys Diaz, Steve Pearce and Randal Grichuk.
And while the Blue Jays are certainly inferior to the Red Sox and Yankees, they can look forward to mostly playing the Rays and Orioles. The 32 games Toronto has remaining against them will be a heck of a chance to gain ground in the AL wild-card race.
Maybe it all won't lead to a playoff berth. But the Blue Jays have enough reasons to try.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.
.png?w=480)
