Triple Crown 2018: Breaking Down Odds for Justify and Top Challengers

American Pharoah became the 12th horse in history to win the Triple Crown in 2015, and Justify has the opportunity to join the exclusive club with a win at Saturday's Belmont Stakes.

While history suggests the odds should be against him given the fact there have been just 12 winners, he impressed at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. The betting world responded with the following odds, which are the morning-line odds courtesy of the New York Racing Association's live broadcast during the post draw. 

2018 Belmont Stakes Field

Post — Horse (Jockey; Trainer; Morning Line Odds)

1 — Justify (Mike Smith; Bob Baffert; 4-5)

2 — Free Drop Billy (Robby Albarado; Dale Romans; 30-1)

3 — Bravazo (Luis Saez; D. Wayne Lukas; 8-1)

4 — Hofburg (Irad Ortiz; William I. Mott; 9-2)

5 — Restoring Hope (Florent Geroux; Bob Baffert; 30-1)

6 — Gronkowski (Jose Ortiz; Chad Brown; 12-1)

7 — Tenfold (Ricardo Santana Jr.; Steven Asmussen; 12-1) 

8 — Vino Rosso (John R. Velazquez; Todd Pletcher; 8-1) 

9 — Noble Indy (Javier Castellano; Todd Pletcher; 30-1)

10 — Blended Citizen (Kyle Frey; Doug O'Neill; 15-1)

Breakdown

Justify battled Good Magic for much of the Preakness before breaking through and holding off challenges from Bravazo and Tenfold. He was more impressive at the Kentucky Derby when jockey Mike Smith aggressively raced him to the lead and widened the gap for a relatively stress-free stretch run.

While he raced through fog and sloppy conditions in those two victories, capturing the 1.5-mile Belmont will be Justify's biggest challenge yet.

Those 4-5 odds are not exactly enticing considering he is starting from the No. 1 post and runs the risk of getting caught against the rail as fatigue starts to become a factor. 

Andy Wittry of Sporting News provided a list of the horses who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness only to fall one short of the Triple Crown at the Belmont, noting it happened 23 times. Six of those instances occurred since 2001.

Justify has to battle against fatigue after winning the first two legs in a two-week span and a field that includes talented horses that are well-rested after skipping the Preakness. It was a toss-up in the aftermath of the Preakness, as OddsShark listed Justify's odds to win and lose at the Belmont as -120 (bet $120 to win $100).

Justify has won all five of his races, but Dan Wolken of USA Today pointed to his struggles to separate from the field at the Preakness and said the performance "did not look like a young superstar getting better, but rather a horse that has raced five times in 91 days and regressed for the first time in his career."

It is difficult to bet against a horse that hasn't lost yet, especially with National Museum and Racing Hall of Fame inductee Smith as the jockey and Bob Baffert as the trainer. Baffert was also the trainer for American Pharoah, so he is familiar with what it takes to make the next step.

However, a talented field will make bettors pause before assuming Justify is going to join horse racing lore Saturday.

Odds with better payoffs, such as the 8-1 for Bravazo and Vino Rosso and the 9-2 for Hofburg, stand out more than Justify's as the significant favorite. That is especially the case for Bravazo after he just battled Justify at the Preakness and proved a formidable foe. Bravazo also has Hall of Fame trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, on his side, and Lucas counts 20 wins at Breeders' Cup Races on his resume.

As for Hofburg, who is fresher after skipping the Preakness, the NYRA Press Office on the Belmont Stakes' website suggests the distance could play into his favor:

"Hofburg seems to be well bred for the distance. He is by Tapit, the sire of three Belmont Stakes winners, including Tapwrit last year. On his dam side is Touch Gold, who won the 1997 Belmont and spoiled the Bob Baffert-trained Silver Charm's quest for a Triple Crown."

Ultimately, the thought here is fatigue gets the best of Justify and the horse that struggled to pull away in the Preakness won't have the stamina to hold off so many competitors over the course of the extended 1.5-mile race. He will join the list of those who came close but couldn't win the third leg in Triple Crown pursuit.

Prediction: Hofburg takes home the title