UFC 224: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
The UFC returns to Rio de Janeiro on Saturday for UFC 224 at the Jeunesse Arena. Topping the bill will be a bantamweight title tilt between champion Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington.
Nunes battered Miesha Tate to take the title at UFC 200 and then established herself as the Queen of the Jungle by embarrassing Ronda Rousey at UFC 207. She won her second title defense at UFC 215 in a back-and-forth affair with Valentina Shevchenko. Now, she looks to continue her run against the ever-tough Pennington.
Also on the bill are a slate of notable names of yore, exciting fighters and one of the sport's most intriguing prospects. It's a strong main card of action that should satisfy fans of every sort. And the B/R team is here to break it all down.
Matthew Ryder, Steven Rondina, Scott Harris and Nathan McCarter are back to offer their predictions for the evening's battles.
Let's not keep you waiting. Here are the staff picks for the five main card bouts at UFC 224.
Vitor Belfort vs. Lyoto Machida
1 of 5
Matthew Ryder
I'm more pumped for this than for any fight on the card. Go ahead and judge me, I don't care. These are two legends of the game, men who were providing highlight-reel finishes while you were still in your Reebok onesie. Let them be older and slower and not as devastating; it doesn't matter to me. I've wanted this one for a decade and I'll take it now instead of never.
Oh, and I got Machida all day.
Machida, KO, Rd. 1
Steven Rondina
I would pick Machida to beat Belfort at almost any phase of either man's career, and in 2018 with Belfort's motivation level up for debate as he eyes retirement and/or Rizin? Yeah, this one's easy.
Machida, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
A little Brazil-on-Brazil violence. Belfort seems pretty washed. Machida's not much better, but he's better nonetheless. He'll fight the smarter fight and frustrate a tired Belfort.
Machida, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I'll fall in line with Machida. Belfort is still dangerous against fighters who have shown they can no longer take a clean shot like Machida has in recent fights, but Machida's style should prevent that from occurring. He'll be out of Dodge through the early stages and then be able to finish Belfort before the bell.
Machida, TKO, Rd. 2
John Lineker vs. Brian Kelleher
2 of 5
Matthew Ryder
Lineker is a gift. He's 5-1 since jumping up to bantamweight and his only loss was against the sitting champion. Plus he's superviolent. It feels like he's fixing to behead poor Brian Kelleher in this one.
Lineker, TKO, Rd. 1
Steven Rondina
I took Kelleher's win over Renan Barao more as an indictment of Barao than an endorsement of Kelleher. As such, I'm not really seeing much to convince me he can pull off the upset against bantamweight's foremost slugger.
Lineker, TKO, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
Kelleher is a well-rounded and dangerous fighter. Lineker is a basically a one-trick pony. Granted, that trick, his phenomenal punching power, is one heck of a good trick. But Kelleher isn't going to back down; his output is high and he can use that volume to out-land or overwhelm anyone.
Steven is right that Lineker is far more dangerous than Barao, but steep and repeated weight cuts wear down the body more quickly, and that certainly seems to be the case with Lineker. I'm not doing so confidently, but here's guessing Kelleher pulls a big upset by outlasting Lineker.
Kelleher, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
If Kelleher had a longer reach than Lineker, I would take him. He doesn't. That's going to be an issue. Lineker's game is pretty straightforward, but it can be difficult to stop his pressure when a fighter cannot create distance. Kelleher will end up in the pocket and getting clipped.
Lineker, KO, Rd. 1
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Cooper
3 of 5
Matthew Ryder
This one’s tailor-made for Dern to triumph. It's also keeping with the UFC's approach to star-building, where it simply forces fighters who are not ready into the spotlight and hope for the best. While that approach is patently disastrous and Dern will show some holes in her game, the hottest strawweight prospect alive should come out on top.
Dern, submission, Rd. 2
Steven Rondina
The UFC made this fight for Dern to win, and she'll almost certainly oblige. Unless Cooper manages to chin her with something (which is possible, because she has some pop to her strikes), look for Dern to either score the submission or eat up time on top en route to a clean decision.
Dern, submission, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
This is not quite a squash match, but it's close. In her short MMA career and long grappling career before now, Dern has shown a legitimate will to win. She'll want to not only take a victory here but use her jiu-jitsu to find a submission. She has said as much in the lead-up to the fight, according to MMAjunkie's Mike Bohn and Ken Hathaway.
All three of Cooper's pro losses have come by submission. If Dern's striking and takedowns are still at the basement level, this could be another slopfest. If they're better or she doesn't need them as much, this one's over quick.
Dern, submission, Rd. 1
Nathan McCarter
There isn't much to add here. This matchup was made for a specific purpose, and that purpose should be achieved with a first-round submission. If Dern struggles again, it's time to sell the stock in her being a fighter of note in the strawweight division. But she should shine. Also, she recently left the MMA Lab and moved her training camp. It'll be interesting to note how that affects her moving forward.
Dern, submission, Rd. 1
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Jacare Souza vs. Kelvin Gastelum
4 of 5
Matthew Ryder
I am a chronic underrater of Kelvin Gastelum. I don't think I've ever picked him going into any fight, and he wins far more of them than he loses. Not today. Souza is getting on in years, and at some point, he's going to slow down and be consumed by a young lion—let's say it happens Saturday.
Gastelum, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
I'll just come right out and say what Matthew was dancing around; this one's a slam dunk for Gastelum. Jacare's obviously a good fighter, but Gastelum has the pop to put away middleweights, the boxing to avoid a flash KO and the physical tools to outwork and outlast an aged alligator.
Unless Jacare's wrestling is quietly way better than we're expecting and he manages to turn this into a grind of a fight, look for Gastelum to take the clean decision or late stoppage.
Gastelum, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
I'm not ready to give up on Jacare just yet. Gastelum has great power and great cardio, but his takedown defense is not all it's cracked up to be. Souza is no great takedown artist (far from it), but he'll use his underrated striking to help get this to the ground and score a victory on what could be a bleak night for Brazil's aging lions.
Souza, submission, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
Picking aging fighters who have been somewhat recently KO'd always gives me pause—enough so here to not pick Jacare. Gastelum has the tools to keep this standing and the power to level the Brazilian grappler. A changing of the guard is at hand.
Gastelum, KO, Rd. 1
Amanda Nunes vs. Raquel Pennington
5 of 5
Matthew Ryder
Pennington has really turned it around recently, building four straight wins off a split-decision loss to Holly Holm a few years back. That said, Nunes is just so hard to handle in the early going and so much bigger, with so many more tools, I simply cannot see Rocky stealing one here.
Nunes, TKO, Rd. 1
Steven Rondina
Pennington is a good fighter but really strikes me as the lite version of Amanda Nunes: same basic idea, just not as good. Both have technical stand-up, both have solid ground games and both have underrated submission skills. Nunes, though, just does everything a bit better, and that will translate to a fairly straightforward win for the Brazilian.
Nunes, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
One of the last big questions about Nunes was her stamina. Could she keep that pace over five rounds? Yes, she can, or at least enough of it to stay viable. Pennington has a good ground game and is leather-tough in all phases, Nunes is bigger and all-around better. Queue up the Cyborg call-out.
Nunes, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
This is a bad matchup for Pennington. Rocky got this title opportunity through grit and mettle but will be met with a fighter who is just simply superior in almost every way. Nunes' athletic, power, speed and technical advantages should make this a statement fight leading toward a meeting against Cris Cyborg.
Nunes, TKO, Rd. 1
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