Early Predictions for MLB's Biggest Buyers and Sellers at the Trade Deadline
July 31 is a long way off for regular folks, but it might as well be tomorrow for Major League Baseball teams. It's never too early to start thinking about the non-waiver trade deadline.
It's already easy to sort the likely buyers and sellers.
Our objective is to predict the heavyweights in both departments. The biggest buyers are contenders with plenty of young talent to deal and—unlike the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros—zero luxury-tax concerns. The biggest sellers are teams short on hope but high on marketable assets.
Let's start with five sellers and end with five buyers.
Seller: Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers looked like an American League West long shot entering 2018, and now they're an injury-ravaged team in last place with a 14-23 record.
This on the heels of a 78-84 record in 2017. The club's farm system is also in a rut, as Bleacher Report ranked it just 20th in MLB at the outset of spring training.
"I'm not ruling anything out; you just don't do that on May 1," general manager Jon Daniels said last Tuesday, but he added: "When you don't have depth and that gets tested right away, it gets challenging."
The Rangers thus check all the boxes of a seller, so it would make sense if clubs are already calling about their available assets.
The list should include low-risk rentals such as Bartolo Colon, Jesse Chavez and Jake Diekman. It could also extend to more high-profile rentals such as Adrian Beltre and four pitchers with 2019 options that are unlikely to be picked up: Cole Hamels, Doug Fister, Martin Perez and Matt Moore.
The Rangers will also have to listen on long-term assets. Jurickson Profar's youth and versatility will appeal to many teams, and Elvis Andrus could fetch a big return from a contender in dire need of a shortstop.
Seller: Kansas City Royals
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The Kansas City Royals have caught some momentum with six wins in their last nine games, but that's only improved their record to 11-23. Even in a mediocre American League Central, they're in a deep hole.
To a certain extent, any fire sale the Royals hold will be too little, too late. With the worst farm system in baseball underneath them, they arguably should have traded Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain when they had the chance last year.
And yet, things could be worse.
Now that Kelvin Herrera, a free agent-to-be, is back to dominating with an 0.66 ERA, the Royals have one reliever pretty much everyone will want at the deadline. Other rentals they can deal are two sluggers (Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda) and a capable defensive shortstop (Alcides Escobar).
Despite his slow start to 2018, Danny Duffy's live arm and team-friendly contract (which runs through 2021) are sure to attract interest. The Royals can also shop Ian Kennedy, who's re-establishing his value with a 2.92 ERA through seven starts.
Even Jorge Soler shouldn't be off the table. Because the 26-year-old is finally breaking out at the plate and under club control through 2020, he's arguably a keeper. Alternatively, he's a perfect guy to sell high.
Seller: Miami Marlins
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The Miami Marlins are also coming around with eight wins in their last 12 games, but that's only improved their record to 13-21. Everyone else in the National League East is over .500.
The Marlins bear another similarity to the Royals in that there's not much left on their major league roster. It used to be pretty good, but then came new owners and offseason trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon.
On the plus side, the Marlins will have one of the summer trade season's most coveted players: J.T. Realmuto.
After merely teasing superstar potential in 2016 and 2017, the 27-year-old catcher is making good on it with a .950 OPS through 17 games. He's also controlled through 2020, so it's no surprise FRS Sports Network's Jon Heyman reported the Marlins will be seeking a "king's ransom" for Realmuto.
Elsewhere among Miami's assets is a little something for everyone. Starlin Castro is a solid second baseman. Justin Bour is a slugging first baseman. Dan Straily is a capable innings-eater. Brad Ziegler is a ground-ball machine who would fit well in any bullpen.
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Seller: Tampa Bay Rays
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The Tampa Bay Rays stumbled with a 3-12 record out of the gate. They've since won 12 of 17 to climb within two games of the .500 mark.
Theoretically, this puts the Rays in the American League wild-card discussion. But one of the AL's two wild cards is going to go to either of the American League East's two superteams: the Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Beyond that, the Rays must know the run they're on isn't making their future any brighter.
So when the decision has to be made, chances are the Rays will choose to sell.
They have their own version of Duffy in Chris Archer. He's struggling with a 5.32 ERA, but teams will still be drawn to his arm and club-friendly contract (which runs through 2021). Alex Colome is a similar story, as relievers with live arms who are under control through 2020 are not easily ignored.
The Rays have other controllable assets they can make available, such as Matt Duffy, Brad Miller and C.J. Cron. They also boast rentals who range from decent (Carlos Gomez and Adeiny Hechavarria) to good (Denard Span) to great (Wilson Ramos).
Seller: Baltimore Orioles
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Elsewhere in the AL East are the Baltimore Orioles, who are arguably the worst team in Major League Baseball.
The Orioles have the second-worst record (8-26) and worst run differential (minus-72) of any team. The picture is that of a window that's clearly shut, even if executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette isn't ready to acknowledge that yet.
"We're still evaluating our club for 2018," Duquette said May 1. "Basically, we still need to figure out where we're going to be, so I think we need a little bit more time to do that."
It's safe to presume, however, that Duquette said this in between phone calls on Manny Machado. The 25-year-old is enjoying a 1.054 OPS while also proving he can cut it as an everyday shortstop. The three-time All-Star may be due for free agency, but he's about as valuable as any rental can be.
Machado isn't the only rental the Orioles can shop this summer. In that same boat are Adam Jones, Pedro Alvarez, Danny Valencia, Brad Brach and, if healthy, Zach Britton.
Since it's clear they have a long rebuild ahead of them, the Orioles should also be willing to deal players who aren't due for free agency until after 2019. That list includes slugging second baseman Jonathan Schoop and slugging designated hitter Mark Trumbo as well as steady reliever Darren O'Day.
Buyer: Colorado Rockies
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Of all the early contenders in MLB, the Colorado Rockies might be standing on the thinnest ice.
They may be 20-15, but they've allowed 10 more runs than they've scored. That translates to an uncomfortable degree of luck.
Still, the Rockies are too talented to write off. They also have a window of opportunity in the National League West by way of the sudden and severe deflation of the Dodgers, and they'll have one advantage over the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks in the summer trade market: a deep farm system to trade from.
To boot, the Rockies should have a ton of needs to fill when the market heats up.
Colorado can never have too many arms with which to combat the conditions at Coors Field, but it's the lineup that's in dire need of support. The Rockies could use upgrades at catcher, first base and in an outfield in which only Charlie Blackmon is producing.
Because they're already operating with a franchise-record $137 million payroll, one thing the Rockies won't have is much financial flexibility. But if they target only young, controllable players, what flexibility they do have won't be threatened.
Buyer: St. Louis Cardinals
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The St. Louis Cardinals already have the best record (20-13) in the National League Central. And in theory, MLB's No. 11 farm system is the perfect excuse for them to get even better via trades.
There is a catch, though, and that's that some of their best prospects aren't going anywhere. Jordan Hicks, Harrison Bader and Carson Kelly are all needed on the major league roster. In time, Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes should emerge as important parts of the club's staff.
All the same, the Cardinals can't fill all their needs from within.
They need to consider adding upgrades to a lineup that's been hit-or-miss, specifically at second base. And while their 3.34 ERA might make it seem like their pitching is just fine as is, there are weaknesses that must be addressed there, too.
It wouldn't hurt the Cardinals to put at least one reliable veteran starter after Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Miles Mikolas. A more pressing need are more arms for the bullpen, which has asked way too much of Hicks and Bud Norris. Take them out, and the unit's ERA rises from 3.38 to 4.09.
Buyer: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Milwaukee Brewers effectively went all-in on contending in 2018 when they traded for Christian Yelich in January.
That deal cost them a good chunk of their farm system, but they don't have any cause to regret it yet. Yelich is one of the better players on a 20-15 team. The Brewers are one game behind the Cardinals and 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs, who were presumed by many to be favorites in the NL Central.
This is a position from which the Brewers can get aggressive in the summer trade market, and they have the goods to make good. Their farm system may not be what it was before the Yelich trade, but it's still solid. They also have surplus outfielders in Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton.
Milwaukee's top priority arguably should be to upgrade an offense that ranks 14th in the National League scoring. Nowhere are upgrades needed more than at catcher and second base.
It's at least as likely, however, that the Brewers will seek to bolster their pitching staff. It has a need for a top-flight starter that could easily be filled by Duffy or Archer.
Buyer: Philadelphia Phillies
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Apart from the Marlins, the NL East standings look like they're upside down. It's within reason to wonder just how long that will last.
And yet, nothing should be taken for granted. The Washington Nationals are being held back by injuries, and the New York Mets have at least as many scrubs as stars. Both are good teams but perhaps not the division titans most everyone assumed they would be.
Bully for the Philadelphia Phillies, who are one of the squads positioned to take advantage.
The Phillies haven't been consistent, but their 19-15 record doesn't mislead about their quality. They're built on a solid combination of youthful and veteran talent, and first-year skipper Gabe Kapler has gotten past a rough introduction to his new duties.
The Phillies will be able to draw from one of MLB's deepest farm systems in putting together trades that could boost their lineup (which could use a catcher, shortstop and right fielder) and pitching staff (which needs starters and relievers).
Or they could simply open their wallet. They started the season with just a $95.3 million payroll. Their spending power goes way beyond that, and that could be their ticket to high-price but worthwhile upgrades.
Buyer: Atlanta Braves
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Meet the Atlanta Braves, the other team positioned to take advantage of the NL East's upside-down arrangement.
A three-game sweep at the hands of the Giants over the weekend knocked the Braves down a peg, but they still appear to be even better than their 19-14 record indicates. Their offense leads the NL in each triple-slash category and in runs, and their pitching staff boasts a respectable 3.76 ERA.
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos will be "hesitant to trade multiple prospects in any deal." But given that the Braves have the best farm system in baseball, Anthopoulos will be able to beat just about any offer for just about any player if he so desires.
And the needs will be there. As good as the Braves offense has been, they shouldn't be too comfortable with Ryan Flaherty at third base. They should also be mindful to add more veterans to a pitching staff that's overrun with youth.
The Braves were bound to emerge as an NL East power sooner or later. Now that the verdict appears to be "sooner," expect them to run with it.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Contract and payroll data courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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